1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,460 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:02,460 --> 00:00:03,980 Commons license. 3 00:00:03,980 --> 00:00:06,910 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare continue to 4 00:00:06,910 --> 00:00:10,650 offer high quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,650 --> 00:00:13,460 To make a donation or view additional materials from 6 00:00:13,460 --> 00:00:17,390 hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare at 7 00:00:17,390 --> 00:00:18,640 ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:33,490 --> 00:00:35,700 ESTHER DUFLO: So actually a lot of themes are 9 00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:38,380 criss-crossing in this documentary. 10 00:00:38,380 --> 00:00:42,330 It's pretty well done for managing to bring many of 11 00:00:42,330 --> 00:00:44,360 those teams up. 12 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:49,550 So before we sort of I summarize them, I'd like to 13 00:00:49,550 --> 00:00:55,110 have your impression of what are the themes that seem to be 14 00:00:55,110 --> 00:00:59,370 important in like how the students get educated, the 15 00:00:59,370 --> 00:01:02,030 government's decisions, the parent's decision, et cetera? 16 00:01:02,030 --> 00:01:03,120 Yeah, Ben? 17 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,038 AUDIENCE: Cultural preservation. 18 00:01:06,038 --> 00:01:07,986 I forget the other one. 19 00:01:07,986 --> 00:01:10,430 It was the Kurds, and who's-- 20 00:01:10,430 --> 00:01:12,920 ESTHER DUFLO: Just the rest of Turkey, mainstream Turkey. 21 00:01:12,920 --> 00:01:15,648 AUDIENCE: --mainstream Turkey and how they're willing to 22 00:01:15,648 --> 00:01:18,872 preserve their culture, and how that spill-over effects 23 00:01:18,872 --> 00:01:21,360 [INAUDIBLE] how they operate [INAUDIBLE]. 24 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,250 ESTHER DUFLO: Right, so one issue that is kind of there is 25 00:01:24,250 --> 00:01:29,250 whether the whole education is a way to mainstream the Kurds, 26 00:01:29,250 --> 00:01:31,980 which they are suspicious about. 27 00:01:31,980 --> 00:01:34,854 That's a good point. 28 00:01:34,854 --> 00:01:37,395 AUDIENCE: Yeah, I was going to say infrastructure, so 29 00:01:37,395 --> 00:01:40,252 actually physically getting the schools becomes a problem. 30 00:01:40,252 --> 00:01:44,716 The guy mentioned like when it snows, it becomes hard for the 31 00:01:44,716 --> 00:01:47,692 children to get to school, so they fall behind. 32 00:01:47,692 --> 00:01:50,668 And they have the desire to become a boarding school, like 33 00:01:50,668 --> 00:01:52,900 religious schools actually in their village. 34 00:01:52,900 --> 00:01:56,130 But because they don't have that, it becomes difficult. 35 00:01:56,130 --> 00:01:56,490 ESTHER DUFLO: Right. 36 00:01:56,490 --> 00:01:58,190 So there is a supply constraint. 37 00:01:58,190 --> 00:02:00,230 There are no schools in the villages and getting to them-- 38 00:02:00,230 --> 00:02:02,350 they go by bus, but even that is difficult, because 39 00:02:02,350 --> 00:02:04,578 infrastructure is difficult. 40 00:02:04,578 --> 00:02:07,483 AUDIENCE: It can also to be hard to find justification for 41 00:02:07,483 --> 00:02:10,987 this education, because although some people argue 42 00:02:10,987 --> 00:02:13,921 that there is still value to it, even if girls or boys who 43 00:02:13,921 --> 00:02:16,122 get educated just come back to the village and live with 44 00:02:16,122 --> 00:02:18,567 their family, but a lot of people say, 45 00:02:18,567 --> 00:02:19,550 well, what is the point? 46 00:02:19,550 --> 00:02:20,580 ESTHER DUFLO: So there is a question of 47 00:02:20,580 --> 00:02:24,042 the benefits of education. 48 00:02:24,042 --> 00:02:27,070 Yaprak's parents, what do they think the benefit of education 49 00:02:27,070 --> 00:02:29,470 is for her? 50 00:02:29,470 --> 00:02:32,290 What do they expect from the education? 51 00:02:32,290 --> 00:02:34,790 AUDIENCE: For her to come back and contribute to the family. 52 00:02:34,790 --> 00:02:36,880 ESTHER DUFLO: Is it what they say, or is it someone 53 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:37,470 else who says that? 54 00:02:37,470 --> 00:02:39,700 What do the parents say, the mom, and then 55 00:02:39,700 --> 00:02:41,722 Yaprak say it also. 56 00:02:41,722 --> 00:02:43,353 AUDIENCE: Her mom said that she wanted 57 00:02:43,353 --> 00:02:45,200 her to become a doctor. 58 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,420 ESTHER DUFLO: Her mom says she wants her to become a doctor. 59 00:02:48,420 --> 00:02:49,875 She also wants to become a doctor. 60 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,690 And in fact there is this debate where people are 61 00:02:56,690 --> 00:03:01,790 saying, well, what's the point of education if we don't have 62 00:03:01,790 --> 00:03:04,510 a job that will take into account this education? 63 00:03:04,510 --> 00:03:08,770 And there's this other guy who says, well, even if she 64 00:03:08,770 --> 00:03:11,840 doesn't become a doctor, there are these other things. 65 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:13,550 But it seems to have a little bit of a 66 00:03:13,550 --> 00:03:17,030 minority view in this. 67 00:03:17,030 --> 00:03:19,250 You don't see any anyone asking her the question, but 68 00:03:19,250 --> 00:03:20,750 she answers, saying, yeah, yeah, there 69 00:03:20,750 --> 00:03:22,500 would be some value. 70 00:03:22,500 --> 00:03:25,740 But there's somewhat of a debate there. 71 00:03:28,897 --> 00:03:30,208 AUDIENCE: When you're talking about supply, there's a lack 72 00:03:30,208 --> 00:03:31,520 of supply of teachers over there. 73 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,122 So in particular regions, like the eastern region for 74 00:03:34,122 --> 00:03:38,160 example, teachers have to go out into those 75 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:39,585 cultural sort of things. 76 00:03:39,585 --> 00:03:41,020 They're coming from different regions 77 00:03:41,020 --> 00:03:42,560 where culture's different. 78 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:45,156 And then at the same time, they may not 79 00:03:45,156 --> 00:03:46,376 particularly be there. 80 00:03:46,376 --> 00:03:47,352 They're passing through. 81 00:03:47,352 --> 00:03:52,722 You mentioned that do we go to train or to get experience in 82 00:03:52,722 --> 00:03:54,310 this way and them move on. 83 00:03:54,310 --> 00:03:55,530 So there's not sustainability. 84 00:03:55,530 --> 00:03:57,780 When you think about teaching, it's important that teachers 85 00:03:57,780 --> 00:04:00,205 build relationships with students and 86 00:04:00,205 --> 00:04:01,200 really pour into them. 87 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:04,550 But when they're in this like transit sort of mindset, it 88 00:04:04,550 --> 00:04:05,760 becomes a little hard to do that. 89 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:08,290 ESTHER DUFLO: Right, so that's another supply issue from the 90 00:04:08,290 --> 00:04:11,020 supply side is whether there are enough teachers. 91 00:04:11,020 --> 00:04:12,850 And then that kind of interacts like it was a 92 00:04:12,850 --> 00:04:13,980 cultural issue. 93 00:04:13,980 --> 00:04:16,339 Who were the teachers? 94 00:04:16,339 --> 00:04:17,420 I think you're making two points 95 00:04:17,420 --> 00:04:18,500 that are both important. 96 00:04:18,500 --> 00:04:21,140 One is the point that the teachers who are coming to 97 00:04:21,140 --> 00:04:23,110 them may not be as motivated. 98 00:04:23,110 --> 00:04:25,550 They might not be accountable to the community. 99 00:04:25,550 --> 00:04:27,900 They might be difficult to discipline. 100 00:04:27,900 --> 00:04:29,620 They might not care. 101 00:04:29,620 --> 00:04:33,880 In addition, they might be the ones who are trying to teach 102 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,820 in Turk and not and not in Kurd, and all of that. 103 00:04:35,820 --> 00:04:37,830 So that brings the cultural dimension. 104 00:04:37,830 --> 00:04:39,198 Yup? 105 00:04:39,198 --> 00:04:42,160 AUDIENCE: Another thing I didn't realize whether or not 106 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:43,318 they mentioned in that movie. 107 00:04:43,318 --> 00:04:48,256 But there's a problem if all these girls are actually 108 00:04:48,256 --> 00:04:51,100 living in those boarding schools for most of the week. 109 00:04:51,100 --> 00:04:53,766 And they're just going back for the weekend. 110 00:04:53,766 --> 00:04:57,160 You know, they don't have that sort of family [INAUDIBLE] 111 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:58,790 that's going to actually give them more balance. 112 00:04:58,790 --> 00:05:02,860 So even though they'll be getting an education, there's 113 00:05:02,860 --> 00:05:06,735 a huge drawback for the fact that they don't have their 114 00:05:06,735 --> 00:05:08,452 parents right there and telling them what 115 00:05:08,452 --> 00:05:09,120 they have to do. 116 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,117 And nobody really knows what that could 117 00:05:13,117 --> 00:05:14,470 cause in the long run. 118 00:05:14,470 --> 00:05:19,020 ESTHER DUFLO: Like you guys, far from your families-- 119 00:05:19,020 --> 00:05:21,450 yeah, I think this sort of comes a little bit in 120 00:05:21,450 --> 00:05:22,030 [INAUDIBLE] 121 00:05:22,030 --> 00:05:24,970 when they have this debate about I think they would like 122 00:05:24,970 --> 00:05:26,810 to have the schools in their villages. 123 00:05:26,810 --> 00:05:30,030 That don't like to send the kids to boarding school. 124 00:05:30,030 --> 00:05:33,980 I think one issue is are the kids mature enough to manage 125 00:05:33,980 --> 00:05:35,000 in boarding school? 126 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:36,840 And the other which is in [INAUDIBLE] 127 00:05:36,840 --> 00:05:39,810 of that, are they going to become different? 128 00:05:39,810 --> 00:05:43,620 Are they going to absolve these values that these guys 129 00:05:43,620 --> 00:05:47,090 are not necessarily looking for? 130 00:05:47,090 --> 00:05:49,560 There might also be a slight conflict underlying this, 131 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,220 where actually from the point of view of the Turkish 132 00:05:52,220 --> 00:05:53,970 government, who is trying to make the Kurds 133 00:05:53,970 --> 00:05:55,530 into regular Turks. 134 00:05:55,530 --> 00:05:57,595 It's actually a good thing to get them 135 00:05:57,595 --> 00:05:59,150 away from the families. 136 00:05:59,150 --> 00:06:02,210 But from the point of the view of the Kurd, that's kind of a 137 00:06:02,210 --> 00:06:07,790 way of following the exhibition. 138 00:06:07,790 --> 00:06:11,650 So that's one thing that goes with education, which you find 139 00:06:11,650 --> 00:06:13,140 in a lot of places. 140 00:06:13,140 --> 00:06:15,955 For example, there was a big education drive in Indonesia 141 00:06:15,955 --> 00:06:18,530 that I'm going to talk in a bit, which had 142 00:06:18,530 --> 00:06:22,270 exactly the same idea. 143 00:06:22,270 --> 00:06:24,420 Education is about imparting skills. 144 00:06:24,420 --> 00:06:26,950 It's also about imparting a world view. 145 00:06:26,950 --> 00:06:31,560 And therefore that creates conflict between the different 146 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,100 people who have different ideas about what these 147 00:06:34,100 --> 00:06:35,350 worldviews should be. 148 00:06:37,968 --> 00:06:41,725 AUDIENCE: Maybe also that those parents talked about the 149 00:06:41,725 --> 00:06:43,186 lack of [INAUDIBLE] 150 00:06:43,186 --> 00:06:49,040 practical things maybe teach about agriculture [INAUDIBLE]? 151 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,130 ESTHER DUFLO: Yes, so that goes back to what is the value 152 00:06:51,130 --> 00:06:51,760 of education? 153 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:53,700 What's the benefit of education? 154 00:06:53,700 --> 00:06:56,700 So it comes back to well, fine, if she graduates and 155 00:06:56,700 --> 00:06:58,290 becomes a doctor, that's great. 156 00:06:58,290 --> 00:07:00,900 But if not, what has education brought? 157 00:07:00,900 --> 00:07:02,040 Maybe nothing. 158 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,660 People might not necessarily see the value of the education 159 00:07:04,660 --> 00:07:08,670 that's imparted as being that great, unless you can make it 160 00:07:08,670 --> 00:07:12,590 to being a doctor, which would be great, but is a 161 00:07:12,590 --> 00:07:14,620 bit more of a leap. 162 00:07:14,620 --> 00:07:15,700 AUDIENCE: I just have a question. 163 00:07:15,700 --> 00:07:18,814 So I figured how many children were in the household. 164 00:07:18,814 --> 00:07:22,300 My understanding is that they only send one to school, like 165 00:07:22,300 --> 00:07:25,288 the impact that has on the children who aren't in school. 166 00:07:25,288 --> 00:07:29,521 I know the mom at least said that she wasn't happy as she 167 00:07:29,521 --> 00:07:32,780 would like to be [INAUDIBLE] education [INAUDIBLE]. 168 00:07:32,780 --> 00:07:37,980 But is that mindset perpetuated because you have a 169 00:07:37,980 --> 00:07:40,980 child who's going to school kind of puts you in further 170 00:07:40,980 --> 00:07:43,480 [INAUDIBLE] your current circumstances, which could 171 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:44,480 pose another problem. 172 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:46,280 ESTHER DUFLO: That's an interesting question. 173 00:07:46,280 --> 00:07:49,410 For example, the sister of this girl, Yaprak. 174 00:07:49,410 --> 00:07:49,790 what's her name? 175 00:07:49,790 --> 00:07:51,210 Was [? Meemet. ?] 176 00:07:51,210 --> 00:07:55,380 She wasn't in school, because she was too old to benefit 177 00:07:55,380 --> 00:07:58,850 from the compulsory education. 178 00:07:58,850 --> 00:08:05,940 So on the one hand, she gets some indirect benefits, 179 00:08:05,940 --> 00:08:06,430 [INAUDIBLE] 180 00:08:06,430 --> 00:08:09,530 benefits from the fact that Yaprak is educated. 181 00:08:09,530 --> 00:08:12,230 On the other hand, she also gets like these education 182 00:08:12,230 --> 00:08:14,680 envy, and feels that, oh, it would have been great if I 183 00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:16,950 could have been educated myself. 184 00:08:16,950 --> 00:08:18,550 So that's an interesting point. 185 00:08:25,855 --> 00:08:28,564 AUDIENCE: We kind of spoke about this before, but just 186 00:08:28,564 --> 00:08:30,840 the idea of the value of education and what are the 187 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:31,330 returns to it? 188 00:08:31,330 --> 00:08:34,395 So when you're most poor, you're just kind of raising 189 00:08:34,395 --> 00:08:35,659 everything higher. 190 00:08:35,659 --> 00:08:39,669 When you think about education, the returns are 191 00:08:39,669 --> 00:08:41,520 going to be much farther off. 192 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:44,810 This was sort of mentioned, but you get to a certain point 193 00:08:44,810 --> 00:08:47,646 and you need some education, then after a while, it's kind 194 00:08:47,646 --> 00:08:49,505 of like, well, you'll probably be more valuable if you just 195 00:08:49,505 --> 00:08:50,985 stayed home and helped out around the house. 196 00:08:53,780 --> 00:08:59,600 There's a dichotomy, I guess, between the social pressure 197 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,000 for education and the home pressure to 198 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,435 help your family out. 199 00:09:04,435 --> 00:09:06,340 We need to eat tomorrow, so this is a 200 00:09:06,340 --> 00:09:06,940 little bit more important. 201 00:09:06,940 --> 00:09:10,060 You'll be able to go to school when you feel like it, or when 202 00:09:10,060 --> 00:09:10,780 you get a little bit older. 203 00:09:10,780 --> 00:09:13,302 Or maybe you won't need to go to school because we need a 204 00:09:13,302 --> 00:09:14,720 survivor now. 205 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:16,610 ESTHER DUFLO: Right, so there's another cost of that 206 00:09:16,610 --> 00:09:20,290 in the cost of getting yourself to school, and that 207 00:09:20,290 --> 00:09:22,880 now the government is paying for the bus, and is paying for 208 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:23,830 the school, et cetera. 209 00:09:23,830 --> 00:09:27,870 But there is another cost, which is in economic jargon we 210 00:09:27,870 --> 00:09:31,950 call the opportunity cost, which is while you're in 211 00:09:31,950 --> 00:09:34,280 school, you're not helping out on the house. 212 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,270 And that is something that is mentioned in the movie at some 213 00:09:37,270 --> 00:09:39,510 point, where they're saying, well, that's kind of one 214 00:09:39,510 --> 00:09:42,170 reason why people are not complying to the objectives. 215 00:09:42,170 --> 00:09:44,940 People are feeling that they are getting on their house. 216 00:09:44,940 --> 00:09:46,620 And you said it exactly right. 217 00:09:46,620 --> 00:09:48,880 There is a trade off. 218 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,540 Even if you don't bear the direct cost of schooling like 219 00:09:51,540 --> 00:09:54,110 is the case here, there is a trade off between the 220 00:09:54,110 --> 00:09:56,620 opportunity cost, when you're losing the value of the child 221 00:09:56,620 --> 00:09:59,410 work now, and the benefits that are far out in the 222 00:09:59,410 --> 00:10:03,110 future, potentially very far out in the future if you think 223 00:10:03,110 --> 00:10:05,430 that it's worth getting an education, only if you can 224 00:10:05,430 --> 00:10:07,518 become a doctor. 225 00:10:07,518 --> 00:10:09,718 AUDIENCE: I was going to say, if the child goes back to the 226 00:10:09,718 --> 00:10:12,505 village, then they just wasted their time, essentially, if 227 00:10:12,505 --> 00:10:13,880 they weren't helping out. 228 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:15,610 ESTHER DUFLO: So that is the debate that they have at some 229 00:10:15,610 --> 00:10:18,740 point, which is at least some people feel that if you go 230 00:10:18,740 --> 00:10:23,000 back to the village, you just wasted your time. 231 00:10:23,000 --> 00:10:24,980 So the only value is to being a doctor. 232 00:10:24,980 --> 00:10:28,400 And at the same time they realize that it's not super 233 00:10:28,400 --> 00:10:30,750 likely that it happens. 234 00:10:30,750 --> 00:10:34,410 And then in general, if someone says that it's easier 235 00:10:34,410 --> 00:10:37,950 for men than for women to get jobs outside the village, 236 00:10:37,950 --> 00:10:40,060 there might be the other point I made earlier, that they 237 00:10:40,060 --> 00:10:42,080 might not want the girls to really leave to 238 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:43,570 be outside the village. 239 00:10:43,570 --> 00:10:46,480 They might accept for them to leave to be a doctor, but they 240 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:53,460 might be less likely to let them leave to man a register 241 00:10:53,460 --> 00:10:58,950 in a supermarket, which maybe is a job you could get with a 242 00:10:58,950 --> 00:11:01,100 good education without continuing. 243 00:11:01,100 --> 00:11:04,287 And so if you're not going to leave the village to take that 244 00:11:04,287 --> 00:11:07,690 job, and they feel that there is no value in between, then 245 00:11:07,690 --> 00:11:12,720 you would have no reason to pay the opportunity cost. 246 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:16,780 So that's where kind of this debate or tension comes up. 247 00:11:16,780 --> 00:11:18,646 Is any of it valuable? 248 00:11:18,646 --> 00:11:22,410 Or is it only valuable if I achieve a sufficient amount to 249 00:11:22,410 --> 00:11:26,430 really get like the lottery ticket of having a chance to 250 00:11:26,430 --> 00:11:27,680 become a doctor. 251 00:11:31,250 --> 00:11:37,490 So what does this bring, this idea that the benefits of 252 00:11:37,490 --> 00:11:45,310 education may or may not be obtained from the first years 253 00:11:45,310 --> 00:11:47,420 of education? 254 00:11:47,420 --> 00:11:51,230 We might be able to obtain them only if 255 00:11:51,230 --> 00:11:53,290 we get enough education. 256 00:11:53,290 --> 00:11:58,430 What does that remind you of that we have seen? 257 00:11:58,430 --> 00:12:00,170 It's that idea of the S shape. 258 00:12:00,170 --> 00:12:03,880 So the question, and here, again, at this level, as usual 259 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:04,750 it's a question. 260 00:12:04,750 --> 00:12:07,440 Is there S shape in education? 261 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,475 So are the first few years of education valuable, because 262 00:12:11,475 --> 00:12:14,360 you learn how to socialize. 263 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:15,250 That's what they said in the movie. 264 00:12:15,250 --> 00:12:16,190 You learn how to socialize. 265 00:12:16,190 --> 00:12:17,660 You learn family planning. 266 00:12:17,660 --> 00:12:22,190 You learn maybe to read the instruction in the packet of 267 00:12:22,190 --> 00:12:25,700 fertilizer for when you come back to the farm. 268 00:12:25,700 --> 00:12:28,310 So there might be reason to think that even the first 269 00:12:28,310 --> 00:12:30,920 years of educations would be valuable. 270 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,310 Or is it the case that the first year of education are 271 00:12:33,310 --> 00:12:35,606 not really valuable, that the only thing that's worth it is 272 00:12:35,606 --> 00:12:37,410 a college education. 273 00:12:37,410 --> 00:12:40,180 And the first year of education, all that gives you 274 00:12:40,180 --> 00:12:46,910 is the option value of going to high school and college if 275 00:12:46,910 --> 00:12:49,150 you want to. 276 00:12:49,150 --> 00:12:51,820 The latter case is a case where there is an S shape. 277 00:12:51,820 --> 00:12:55,910 So unless you get enough education, it's not worth it. 278 00:12:55,910 --> 00:12:59,870 At the former case is a case where there is no S shape. 279 00:12:59,870 --> 00:13:03,300 And so one empirical question is whether it's actually an S 280 00:13:03,300 --> 00:13:05,720 shape or it's actually not an S shape. 281 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,160 Another empirical question, of course, is the value of 282 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:12,000 education, whatever the shape the overall 283 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:13,670 level of the benefits. 284 00:13:13,670 --> 00:13:17,180 And the third question is what people are thinking? 285 00:13:17,180 --> 00:13:20,200 Because even if it's in fact linear, if people think that 286 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,080 it's actually S shape, then it's going to 287 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,193 influence their behavior. 288 00:13:24,193 --> 00:13:27,990 And it's going to influence the choice 289 00:13:27,990 --> 00:13:29,470 that they are making. 290 00:13:29,470 --> 00:13:32,195 So for example here, they have all these discussions about is 291 00:13:32,195 --> 00:13:36,390 it even worth it to send the kids to school or not. 292 00:13:36,390 --> 00:13:39,170 And they never question the fact that it would be great if 293 00:13:39,170 --> 00:13:40,780 she could become a doctor. 294 00:13:40,780 --> 00:13:43,200 But they might question the fact that there might be a 295 00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,050 value of anything below being a doctor. 296 00:13:50,330 --> 00:13:52,245 Is there anything else that comes out of this? 297 00:13:54,890 --> 00:13:55,842 Yeah? 298 00:13:55,842 --> 00:13:57,270 AUDIENCE: I think Ben might have talked. 299 00:13:57,270 --> 00:14:00,130 I heard him say something about cultural-- 300 00:14:00,130 --> 00:14:04,083 but just the idea of the head scarves, the preventing of the 301 00:14:04,083 --> 00:14:08,075 girls from going to school, and then the idea of Kurds 302 00:14:08,075 --> 00:14:14,063 being assimilated as opposed to being integrated in a way 303 00:14:14,063 --> 00:14:16,059 that helps them maintain their culture. 304 00:14:16,059 --> 00:14:18,055 Again, that's something that would deter me 305 00:14:18,055 --> 00:14:19,080 from going to school. 306 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,850 ESTHER DUFLO: Right, so that's kind of the convex combination 307 00:14:22,850 --> 00:14:27,230 of the two points, Ben's point and the point about once you 308 00:14:27,230 --> 00:14:31,950 send them to boarding school, they're not under your thumb. 309 00:14:31,950 --> 00:14:36,210 You can't check what they are doing anymore, which is 310 00:14:36,210 --> 00:14:39,315 reinforcing in Turkey that's it's not allowed to wear a 311 00:14:39,315 --> 00:14:41,170 head scarf in school. 312 00:14:41,170 --> 00:14:46,390 So from the beginning, there is a conflict there. 313 00:14:46,390 --> 00:14:49,590 Is school aware of indoctrinating the kids away 314 00:14:49,590 --> 00:14:52,890 from what you would like, under the guise of providing 315 00:14:52,890 --> 00:14:56,090 them with valuable skills in the labor market? 316 00:14:56,090 --> 00:14:58,460 And there is certainly some amount of that, to be honest, 317 00:14:58,460 --> 00:15:00,088 that's actually said by them. 318 00:15:05,460 --> 00:15:09,110 The only thing we missed from the movie-- 319 00:15:09,110 --> 00:15:11,620 well, we might have missed a bit more-- but the only piece 320 00:15:11,620 --> 00:15:15,510 we missed that I remember and is worth pointing out is the 321 00:15:15,510 --> 00:15:21,900 woman with the hair like that who speaks with this very posh 322 00:15:21,900 --> 00:15:25,430 English accent, the columnist from The Economist. 323 00:15:25,430 --> 00:15:27,180 She has the last word. 324 00:15:27,180 --> 00:15:30,970 And she mentions one thing that might be worth pointing 325 00:15:30,970 --> 00:15:35,220 out, which is this is compulsory education. 326 00:15:35,220 --> 00:15:38,210 This drive to compulsory education was very much of a 327 00:15:38,210 --> 00:15:42,090 top down intervention, was done without any consultation, 328 00:15:42,090 --> 00:15:44,400 or anybody, which is done. 329 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,360 And the way the schools are run is run in this completely 330 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,680 centralized way, with a centralized curriculum, with 331 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:54,170 the teachers appointed from the center, the kids driven to 332 00:15:54,170 --> 00:15:55,920 boarding school, et cetera. 333 00:15:55,920 --> 00:16:00,130 And she says that that's not going to work, that people are 334 00:16:00,130 --> 00:16:06,270 not going to accept or not going to really be in the mood 335 00:16:06,270 --> 00:16:09,870 or thought to be really groovy about the whole education 336 00:16:09,870 --> 00:16:12,200 thing, unless they're given some autonomy 337 00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:14,210 in running the schools. 338 00:16:14,210 --> 00:16:16,460 So that's an important point, because that's the point that 339 00:16:16,460 --> 00:16:23,470 many people make, that any effort at top down education 340 00:16:23,470 --> 00:16:26,610 will meet some resistance from the people. 341 00:16:26,610 --> 00:16:29,950 They might still go because they have to go, but the 342 00:16:29,950 --> 00:16:31,340 parents won't be very engaged. 343 00:16:31,340 --> 00:16:32,760 The children won't be very engaged. 344 00:16:32,760 --> 00:16:34,610 The teachers might not be very engaged. 345 00:16:34,610 --> 00:16:36,900 And nothing will happen. 346 00:16:36,900 --> 00:16:39,020 So we keep that in mind. 347 00:16:39,020 --> 00:16:41,600 I'm channeling her, because I want to keep that in mind as 348 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:43,120 we have the discussion. 349 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:49,480 Because this tension between education, board-funded top 350 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:55,940 down, and education, emerging from the bottom up, is one of 351 00:16:55,940 --> 00:16:57,865 the central debates in education. 352 00:17:00,390 --> 00:17:03,660 So I think you guys said a lot of the things that I 353 00:17:03,660 --> 00:17:05,420 wanted to touch on. 354 00:17:05,420 --> 00:17:11,119 Let me kind of make sure that we have everything together. 355 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:15,609 So the stories of a Kurdish girl who goes to boarding 356 00:17:15,609 --> 00:17:18,069 school after education was made 357 00:17:18,069 --> 00:17:21,800 compulsory until grade eight. 358 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,869 So many important themes appear in the movie. 359 00:17:24,869 --> 00:17:26,180 I think we mentioned them. 360 00:17:26,180 --> 00:17:29,540 One are all the questions about the supply of education, 361 00:17:29,540 --> 00:17:34,470 so that seems to have been a constraint before this big 362 00:17:34,470 --> 00:17:37,280 education push from the Turkish government and still 363 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,750 is a constraint. 364 00:17:39,750 --> 00:17:41,680 There is no schools in the remote villages. 365 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:43,860 The roads are bad. 366 00:17:43,860 --> 00:17:45,920 Transportation is difficult. 367 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:49,260 There is a shortage of well-trained teachers. 368 00:17:49,260 --> 00:17:56,110 Therefore there is a large class size, and the teachers 369 00:17:56,110 --> 00:17:59,030 are moving, what you were saying about the teachers 370 00:17:59,030 --> 00:18:01,800 coming from far away not being necessarily the best teacher, 371 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,050 most motivated teacher. 372 00:18:06,470 --> 00:18:10,950 For part of the international community, these types of 373 00:18:10,950 --> 00:18:14,760 constraint are the only thing you have to worry about. 374 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:19,755 I think you guys have all seen a picture of a little African 375 00:18:19,755 --> 00:18:22,790 girl in a village saying, that if only she had a school, she 376 00:18:22,790 --> 00:18:26,400 would study until she would become a doctor. 377 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,540 So there is a whole branch of the international community, 378 00:18:29,540 --> 00:18:34,390 governments, et cetera, for whom the only problems with 379 00:18:34,390 --> 00:18:38,280 education are supply problems, and if only we could get rid 380 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,270 of the supply problem and make sure there are enough 381 00:18:40,270 --> 00:18:43,080 well-trained teachers, then the kids would go to school. 382 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:44,250 They would learn something in school. 383 00:18:44,250 --> 00:18:46,400 And they would all be very educated. 384 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:50,490 So the problem is a problem of fixing the supply constraint. 385 00:18:50,490 --> 00:18:54,460 But what we see in the movie is that these are not the only 386 00:18:54,460 --> 00:18:55,610 constraints. 387 00:18:55,610 --> 00:18:58,010 So the reason why it's relevant is that a lot of the 388 00:18:58,010 --> 00:19:02,620 international community, a lot of the policy was in aid. 389 00:19:02,620 --> 00:19:06,700 And the policies implemented by the government have that 390 00:19:06,700 --> 00:19:09,610 flavor in mind, which is let's fix the supply problem. 391 00:19:09,610 --> 00:19:12,870 So for example, a lot of African countries have gotten 392 00:19:12,870 --> 00:19:17,900 rid of school fees completely to make sure school was free. 393 00:19:17,900 --> 00:19:20,160 You go to a country like Kenya, and there is a school 394 00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:24,300 every 25 meters, because every community who wants a school 395 00:19:24,300 --> 00:19:25,600 can gets one. 396 00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:29,100 So there is plenty of schools. 397 00:19:29,100 --> 00:19:32,090 In some sense, one could say too many schools in that the 398 00:19:32,090 --> 00:19:36,410 class size is actually quite small at the top. 399 00:19:36,410 --> 00:19:40,550 And in India, it's the same thing. 400 00:19:40,550 --> 00:19:43,640 India is debating a right to education, where if you don't 401 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:48,770 have a school right near your village, you can get one. 402 00:19:48,770 --> 00:19:52,440 But what we see in the movie is that it's not the supply 403 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,810 constraint, not having a school near you, et cetera, is 404 00:19:54,810 --> 00:19:56,060 not the new problem. 405 00:19:59,290 --> 00:20:03,360 In fact, Turkey is not only building schools, and building 406 00:20:03,360 --> 00:20:06,180 these boarding schools, and having kids travel in 407 00:20:06,180 --> 00:20:09,840 minibuses to go to the school, they also made education 408 00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:11,730 compulsory. 409 00:20:11,730 --> 00:20:14,410 And if the only problem was supply, then making education 410 00:20:14,410 --> 00:20:16,900 compulsory would not be necessary. 411 00:20:16,900 --> 00:20:18,850 You would put the schools there and people would be 412 00:20:18,850 --> 00:20:20,170 delighted to go. 413 00:20:20,170 --> 00:20:24,610 And you wouldn't need any compulsion. 414 00:20:24,610 --> 00:20:27,670 In fact, Turkey decided that the only way that they could 415 00:20:27,670 --> 00:20:31,117 get a fast increasing education was to make 416 00:20:31,117 --> 00:20:32,880 education compulsory. 417 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:35,730 So implicitly, there is the argument that, well, maybe 418 00:20:35,730 --> 00:20:39,240 people would not want to go to all the schools. 419 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,710 So there must be a demand constraint as well. 420 00:20:42,710 --> 00:20:46,280 There must be a lower demand for education. 421 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,250 So what constrained them? 422 00:20:48,250 --> 00:20:49,300 We mentioned that. 423 00:20:49,300 --> 00:20:51,240 One is no economic resources. 424 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,000 So they don't have money. 425 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:56,400 So this in principle, the direct cost of education can 426 00:20:56,400 --> 00:21:01,640 be compensated by making education free by paying for 427 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,720 books, by paying for transportation. 428 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:06,580 But there is also the need for child labor. 429 00:21:06,580 --> 00:21:07,780 It was mentioned in the movie. 430 00:21:07,780 --> 00:21:12,160 The kids who are in school are not helping on the farm. 431 00:21:12,160 --> 00:21:15,910 Then there is the need to get married, which was mentioned 432 00:21:15,910 --> 00:21:18,580 by Yaprak's sister. 433 00:21:18,580 --> 00:21:19,920 She says, now I need to get married. 434 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,640 And you can be married and in boarding school. 435 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,190 In principle you could, but it's not very frequent that 436 00:21:26,190 --> 00:21:28,430 you would be both married and in boarding school. 437 00:21:28,430 --> 00:21:30,650 So this is not a cost effect. 438 00:21:30,650 --> 00:21:36,330 This is something which is more about culture. 439 00:21:36,330 --> 00:21:39,120 Maybe the husband wants a young wife. 440 00:21:39,120 --> 00:21:42,300 Or there is something different than just a strict 441 00:21:42,300 --> 00:21:43,480 opportunity cost effect. 442 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,820 Like, why do they think that it's important to get married 443 00:21:45,820 --> 00:21:48,960 early instead of continuing schooling? 444 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,070 So these are only important because they're mentioned. 445 00:21:53,070 --> 00:21:55,590 And there are the benefits. 446 00:21:55,590 --> 00:21:57,940 Is it useful? 447 00:21:57,940 --> 00:22:02,540 Or is it useful only if you get enough education? 448 00:22:02,540 --> 00:22:06,040 If it's useful, do parents know that it is useful? 449 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,225 What do they expect of education? 450 00:22:08,225 --> 00:22:11,130 Do they expect that education is making their child 451 00:22:11,130 --> 00:22:14,020 generally better at living their life? 452 00:22:14,020 --> 00:22:18,190 I'll do they see education as-- 453 00:22:18,190 --> 00:22:20,710 the woman employs a term that is interesting-- it's almost 454 00:22:20,710 --> 00:22:23,090 like a foreign currency. 455 00:22:23,090 --> 00:22:25,010 So people see your education diploma. 456 00:22:25,010 --> 00:22:28,640 Do you see that as something that if you get enough of it, 457 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,710 you can actually sell to the market? 458 00:22:31,710 --> 00:22:33,730 What is enough? 459 00:22:33,730 --> 00:22:37,490 Is it a foreign currency that you could get a few cents of 460 00:22:37,490 --> 00:22:38,650 and that would be good enough? 461 00:22:38,650 --> 00:22:41,080 Or is it a foreign currency that you need a big packet of 462 00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:42,540 to be worthwhile? 463 00:22:42,540 --> 00:22:45,660 And in the movie, what was interesting was is that we saw 464 00:22:45,660 --> 00:22:48,780 different people having different views about whether 465 00:22:48,780 --> 00:22:51,170 it is a foreign currency, that is, you have to take it 466 00:22:51,170 --> 00:22:52,840 elsewhere to benefit from it? 467 00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:55,560 Whereas you could also benefit from it just in your general 468 00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:59,230 my life, with having fewer, healthier children, being more 469 00:22:59,230 --> 00:23:00,480 socialized? 470 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,660 I think it's again Yaprak sister who sees another 471 00:23:06,660 --> 00:23:10,510 advantage of education for girls in that it is going to 472 00:23:10,510 --> 00:23:13,660 increase her bargaining power within the family. 473 00:23:13,660 --> 00:23:17,610 Since traditionally girls are quiet and don't say anything 474 00:23:17,610 --> 00:23:20,280 and men have all the power, and if girls get education, 475 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:21,540 that is going to improve their bargaining 476 00:23:21,540 --> 00:23:23,470 power within the family. 477 00:23:23,470 --> 00:23:27,050 And that is something that girls may find very attractive 478 00:23:27,050 --> 00:23:31,000 and their future husbands might find less attractive. 479 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,720 And here the question is what are the 480 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:34,020 fathers going to think? 481 00:23:37,340 --> 00:23:43,020 Yaprak's father, on the one hand, probably he has in mind 482 00:23:43,020 --> 00:23:47,170 the value of keeping the girls in their place. 483 00:23:47,170 --> 00:23:49,230 On the other hand, he likes his daughter. 484 00:23:49,230 --> 00:23:53,250 So there is probably a conflict within him between 485 00:23:53,250 --> 00:23:57,810 the fact that as a man, he doesn't want to conflict with 486 00:23:57,810 --> 00:24:01,140 his wife, so we would rather the woman being lower down, 487 00:24:01,140 --> 00:24:03,750 but as a father probably likes his daughter more than his son 488 00:24:03,750 --> 00:24:07,360 in law, who doesn't even exist yet. 489 00:24:07,360 --> 00:24:12,900 So there might be a conflict here in his preferences which 490 00:24:12,900 --> 00:24:15,420 might easily lead him to say, fine, she should get an 491 00:24:15,420 --> 00:24:19,160 education or no, we want to move forward. 492 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,690 And what is interesting in the movie is that he clearly sees 493 00:24:22,690 --> 00:24:25,150 himself as a bit of a [INAUDIBLE] leader and a 494 00:24:25,150 --> 00:24:27,100 modern character. 495 00:24:27,100 --> 00:24:32,530 So he seemed to have concluded this debate from his point of 496 00:24:32,530 --> 00:24:36,276 view to say that OK, I'll send her. 497 00:24:36,276 --> 00:24:37,698 AUDIENCE: I have a question. 498 00:24:37,698 --> 00:24:41,077 I'm wondering with that attitude if it's sort of like 499 00:24:41,077 --> 00:24:44,973 we'll just indulge the girls for a while and let them go to 500 00:24:44,973 --> 00:24:48,869 school, but we know secretly that we're still going to take 501 00:24:48,869 --> 00:24:53,252 the power we have and not actually concede anything and 502 00:24:53,252 --> 00:24:55,210 respect the fact that they [INAUDIBLE]. 503 00:24:55,210 --> 00:24:56,900 ESTHER DUFLO: Right, so there might be a little bit of that. 504 00:24:56,900 --> 00:24:59,420 So just to repeat the question, the question was, 505 00:24:59,420 --> 00:25:03,490 are they just indulging them for a little while and then 506 00:25:03,490 --> 00:25:06,315 going to bring them back in line? 507 00:25:06,315 --> 00:25:09,790 And then education is more like it's not seen as an 508 00:25:09,790 --> 00:25:12,480 investment anymore, but more consumption value for the 509 00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,850 girl, since the government is providing it for free and 510 00:25:15,850 --> 00:25:17,340 she's kind of a bit too young to be really 511 00:25:17,340 --> 00:25:19,790 helpful in the farm. 512 00:25:19,790 --> 00:25:23,580 Let's get her get an education, but we kind of know 513 00:25:23,580 --> 00:25:24,970 that at the end of the day, it's not going 514 00:25:24,970 --> 00:25:26,300 to change her life. 515 00:25:26,300 --> 00:25:28,670 And we certainly maybe hope that it's not going to change 516 00:25:28,670 --> 00:25:29,650 her attitude. 517 00:25:29,650 --> 00:25:32,020 What's interesting is that if this is what people had in 518 00:25:32,020 --> 00:25:34,480 mind is that that's clearly not her view. 519 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:38,100 So that might be a little bit of disconnect here, which 520 00:25:38,100 --> 00:25:40,590 would be in her advantage in terms of when 521 00:25:40,590 --> 00:25:42,700 she gets the education. 522 00:25:42,700 --> 00:25:46,580 So here if we're thinking of these bargaining power issues 523 00:25:46,580 --> 00:25:51,600 and this potential conflict withing the father between his 524 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,990 goal as a husband where he wants to keep the power, and 525 00:25:53,990 --> 00:25:57,260 his goal as a father, where he would like probably her to 526 00:25:57,260 --> 00:26:03,780 have some power, is that that may change with economic goals 527 00:26:03,780 --> 00:26:08,430 in the society and what are the opportunities he sees for 528 00:26:08,430 --> 00:26:10,810 her to do something with the education. 529 00:26:10,810 --> 00:26:13,900 If the society's completely paralyzed, then in a way the 530 00:26:13,900 --> 00:26:17,540 benefits of education are very high for her, so he has less 531 00:26:17,540 --> 00:26:20,165 of a reason to want to go to it. 532 00:26:20,165 --> 00:26:22,350 AUDIENCE: Just from watching the video, it seems like it is 533 00:26:22,350 --> 00:26:25,179 possible for them to combine both the cultural values and 534 00:26:25,179 --> 00:26:26,040 the value of education. 535 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:30,320 Like for instance, clearly it is a male-dominated society, 536 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,918 but here we watch the scenes where there's a bunch of men, 537 00:26:33,918 --> 00:26:35,060 sitting around, and they're talking 538 00:26:35,060 --> 00:26:35,970 the value of education. 539 00:26:35,970 --> 00:26:37,735 It's still the women who are serving them tea 540 00:26:37,735 --> 00:26:39,130 or whatever it was. 541 00:26:39,130 --> 00:26:42,152 And they still see the women, the girl who is getting the 542 00:26:42,152 --> 00:26:44,000 education, she's still helping with the 543 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:45,346 children and all that. 544 00:26:45,346 --> 00:26:47,300 So it seems like-- 545 00:26:47,300 --> 00:26:49,210 ESTHER DUFLO: Yeah, it is possible that even with the 546 00:26:49,210 --> 00:26:53,960 education they are still going to maintain the differences. 547 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,210 What is interesting is that there is a level question and 548 00:26:57,210 --> 00:27:00,610 a slope question, which is it is possible that the girls 549 00:27:00,610 --> 00:27:05,280 have so far to go that getting an education wouldn't be 550 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,930 sufficient to make them become equal. 551 00:27:07,930 --> 00:27:10,940 But that would still go in that direction. 552 00:27:10,940 --> 00:27:13,680 And at least some of them seem to have the hope that it would 553 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:15,580 bring it in that direction. 554 00:27:15,580 --> 00:27:17,600 But you're right. 555 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,630 So those are the expected benefits of education. 556 00:27:21,630 --> 00:27:24,500 And then there is what worries them about the schools. 557 00:27:24,500 --> 00:27:27,370 We've mentioned the culturalized assimilation, the 558 00:27:27,370 --> 00:27:32,070 fact that it might be like a covert way to assimilate them 559 00:27:32,070 --> 00:27:35,900 to a culture that's not theirs, and the fact that 560 00:27:35,900 --> 00:27:40,440 maybe there are no benefits, the fact that just if sending 561 00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,810 the kids away is not a very good thing. 562 00:27:42,810 --> 00:27:47,160 Potentially they are worried about them. 563 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:48,780 So these are the demand issues. 564 00:27:48,780 --> 00:27:51,160 So the demand issues are a little bit tricky, because 565 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,640 depending on how this thing balances out, what are the 566 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,330 benefits they see versus the feel they have versus the 567 00:27:57,330 --> 00:27:59,600 immediate cost of not having the kids on the farm. 568 00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:03,990 Or the decision of sending the kids or not sending the kids 569 00:28:03,990 --> 00:28:07,160 is not obvious, even if education is free. 570 00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,550 And making education compulsory, of course, pushes 571 00:28:10,550 --> 00:28:11,800 them in that direction. 572 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,620 So is benefits of education that are touched upon in the 573 00:28:18,620 --> 00:28:21,030 movie are of different kinds. 574 00:28:21,030 --> 00:28:24,810 There is this foreign currency idea-- you get a job. 575 00:28:24,810 --> 00:28:26,390 You get a higher wage. 576 00:28:26,390 --> 00:28:29,240 They hope that the girl is going to be a doctor. 577 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,850 So the issue is can everybody become a doctor? 578 00:28:32,850 --> 00:28:34,770 And probably not. 579 00:28:34,770 --> 00:28:36,910 So even though they don't say it in the movie, they must 580 00:28:36,910 --> 00:28:39,350 have in the corner of their mind that they're not quite 581 00:28:39,350 --> 00:28:40,790 sure that she's going to make it. 582 00:28:40,790 --> 00:28:43,550 They sort of say it, but they're not quite sure it's 583 00:28:43,550 --> 00:28:44,640 going to make it. 584 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,930 And that uncertainty and the fact that the objective is so 585 00:28:47,930 --> 00:28:51,670 hard certainly has some impact in how serious it is to take 586 00:28:51,670 --> 00:28:53,930 the whole thing. 587 00:28:53,930 --> 00:29:01,080 And then there is the possibility that just getting 588 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:04,920 an education would help in your job, doing your job 589 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:06,990 better, even if your job is to be a farmer, 590 00:29:06,990 --> 00:29:09,410 coming back to the farm. 591 00:29:09,410 --> 00:29:11,480 And nobody seems to really say that. 592 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:13,560 It's only mentioned in a negative way, which is if only 593 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,080 they taught something useful like home economics then maybe 594 00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,870 we would be able to have some benefits of this education. 595 00:29:20,870 --> 00:29:22,140 But that's not what they are doing. 596 00:29:22,140 --> 00:29:25,100 And so maybe education is useless or is seen as being 597 00:29:25,100 --> 00:29:28,050 useless at the lower level. 598 00:29:28,050 --> 00:29:30,990 Then there are the non-monetary dimensions of 599 00:29:30,990 --> 00:29:33,450 getting an education. 600 00:29:33,450 --> 00:29:35,830 Girls will become more socialized. 601 00:29:35,830 --> 00:29:38,500 The family planning, they'll have more friends and know how 602 00:29:38,500 --> 00:29:43,310 to interact with people in the city, et cetera. 603 00:29:43,310 --> 00:29:45,630 And then there is the idea of learning things that you can 604 00:29:45,630 --> 00:29:46,910 teach others. 605 00:29:46,910 --> 00:29:49,290 So the one guy who has an college education in these 606 00:29:49,290 --> 00:29:52,475 men's discussion, he goes and say, well, let them get an 607 00:29:52,475 --> 00:29:55,530 education, come back, and teach us some stuff. 608 00:29:55,530 --> 00:30:00,210 And so this is the external spill-over value of education, 609 00:30:00,210 --> 00:30:03,100 which is the opposite than the one that Ben had mentioned, 610 00:30:03,100 --> 00:30:04,430 which was the education envy. 611 00:30:04,430 --> 00:30:08,220 But it's the idea that if I get an education, if there is 612 00:30:08,220 --> 00:30:10,770 some benefits, for example, I learn how to read the 613 00:30:10,770 --> 00:30:14,330 instructions on the fertilizer package, maybe I learn to use 614 00:30:14,330 --> 00:30:17,440 new technology in agriculture, not only it can be useful for 615 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,450 me, but potentially it can be useful for others. 616 00:30:20,450 --> 00:30:23,810 So if that is the case, a village might decide to focus 617 00:30:23,810 --> 00:30:28,180 on the smartest kids on the block and make sure that they 618 00:30:28,180 --> 00:30:33,230 at least get an education so that everybody benefits. 619 00:30:33,230 --> 00:30:36,770 So those are kind of the benefits of education. 620 00:30:36,770 --> 00:30:38,820 So one empirical question is what are the 621 00:30:38,820 --> 00:30:39,870 real benefits of education? 622 00:30:39,870 --> 00:30:42,290 The other empirical question is what are people perceive to 623 00:30:42,290 --> 00:30:43,540 be the benefits of education? 624 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,705 Another thing that he touched upon in the movie is this top 625 00:30:49,705 --> 00:30:51,870 down versus bottom up. 626 00:30:51,870 --> 00:30:56,260 So here the government is trying a big top down 627 00:30:56,260 --> 00:30:58,750 approach, trying to do it very fast-- 628 00:30:58,750 --> 00:31:01,890 putting all the money from the top, making it compulsory, 629 00:31:01,890 --> 00:31:05,370 which is the ultimate top down, and instead of 630 00:31:05,370 --> 00:31:08,840 supply-drive policy, has been, as I was saying, popular in 631 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,180 many countries. 632 00:31:10,180 --> 00:31:11,260 Many African countries-- 633 00:31:11,260 --> 00:31:14,630 Kenya, Uganda, Ghana-- 634 00:31:14,630 --> 00:31:18,070 have recently, relatively recently, in the last 10 years 635 00:31:18,070 --> 00:31:20,780 or so, have adopted free primary education and moving 636 00:31:20,780 --> 00:31:22,680 to free secondary education now. 637 00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,890 India, as I was saying, has a right to education, which 638 00:31:24,890 --> 00:31:27,240 actually allowed people, in principle, to sue the 639 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:28,610 government if they don't get a school. 640 00:31:34,050 --> 00:31:45,400 So the supply drives have been the main education policy say 641 00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,800 in the last three decades. 642 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:53,720 The Millennium Development Goal specified that every 643 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,630 child should get at least a basic education, basic goes to 644 00:31:56,630 --> 00:31:58,960 nine years of education. 645 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,430 What is interesting is that there is no mention anywhere 646 00:32:02,430 --> 00:32:03,805 that they should actually learn 647 00:32:03,805 --> 00:32:05,300 anything in those schools. 648 00:32:05,300 --> 00:32:07,450 It's sort of assumed that if they get nine years of 649 00:32:07,450 --> 00:32:09,520 education they'll get something out of it. 650 00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,740 But as we'll see, it's a pretty big assumption. 651 00:32:12,740 --> 00:32:16,360 And there are certainly some clear signs success of these 652 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,580 big supply drives. 653 00:32:18,580 --> 00:32:21,650 Between 1999 and 2006, the enrollment rates have 654 00:32:21,650 --> 00:32:29,350 increased, in Sub-Saharan Africa from 54% to 70%, in 655 00:32:29,350 --> 00:32:32,270 East and Southeast Asia from 75% to 88%. 656 00:32:32,270 --> 00:32:35,380 These are primary schools only. 657 00:32:35,380 --> 00:32:37,960 Secondary school enrollments have also increased, even 658 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:39,980 though secondary school is much more expensive, much more 659 00:32:39,980 --> 00:32:42,240 difficult to do for governments. 660 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:46,330 So worldwide, there are still a bunch of millions of kids 661 00:32:46,330 --> 00:32:49,420 who are not in school, but much less in 2006 than they 662 00:32:49,420 --> 00:32:54,350 were in 1999. 663 00:32:54,350 --> 00:32:56,660 So is it all worthwhile? 664 00:32:56,660 --> 00:33:00,190 That's the question that Easterly is asking in the 665 00:33:00,190 --> 00:33:01,830 reading for today. 666 00:33:01,830 --> 00:33:03,080 And what is his answer? 667 00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,690 His answer is not that graph. 668 00:33:10,690 --> 00:33:13,710 AUDIENCE: I thought education in itself, an increase in 669 00:33:13,710 --> 00:33:17,000 education, is not going to cause and increase in growth. 670 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:17,260 ESTHER DUFLO: Right. 671 00:33:17,260 --> 00:33:19,660 He is saying it's useless. 672 00:33:19,660 --> 00:33:26,620 And how does he explain that despite the fact that it's 673 00:33:26,620 --> 00:33:28,997 used less people have still done it? 674 00:33:28,997 --> 00:33:30,781 Yeah, go ahead. 675 00:33:30,781 --> 00:33:32,585 AUDIENCE: [INAUDIBLE]. 676 00:33:32,585 --> 00:33:34,312 ESTHER DUFLO: Go ahead, go ahead. 677 00:33:34,312 --> 00:33:38,240 AUDIENCE: I was going to say because the increments in the 678 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,200 [INAUDIBLE]. 679 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:41,920 ESTHER DUFLO: Exactly. 680 00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:48,350 So what Easterly is saying is that you guys have been fooled 681 00:33:48,350 --> 00:33:49,600 by this graph. 682 00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:53,820 These are countries-- 683 00:33:53,820 --> 00:34:03,980 USA, Romania, Paraguay, Venezuela. 684 00:34:03,980 --> 00:34:06,870 And these are the average years of schooling of the 685 00:34:06,870 --> 00:34:08,880 population. 686 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:13,770 And this is the log output per worker, relative to the US. 687 00:34:13,770 --> 00:34:16,200 So everybody is negative because the US is a richer 688 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,949 country in the world. 689 00:34:18,949 --> 00:34:21,500 And what you can see here is that there is a pretty strong 690 00:34:21,500 --> 00:34:27,460 correlation between the log output per worker and the 691 00:34:27,460 --> 00:34:28,610 years of schooling. 692 00:34:28,610 --> 00:34:29,750 Countries which have more years of 693 00:34:29,750 --> 00:34:32,150 schooling are also richer. 694 00:34:32,150 --> 00:34:37,420 So one could conclude from there that year of education 695 00:34:37,420 --> 00:34:39,310 increases income. 696 00:34:39,310 --> 00:34:42,909 And people have certainly drawn this conclusion. 697 00:34:42,909 --> 00:34:46,193 What is his point about this graph? 698 00:34:53,109 --> 00:34:56,073 AUDIENCE: I'm not sure this is the point but, it's the idea 699 00:34:56,073 --> 00:34:57,555 of mobility bias. 700 00:34:57,555 --> 00:35:03,236 We have more education, perhaps that's because we have 701 00:35:03,236 --> 00:35:04,471 some sort of mobility. 702 00:35:04,471 --> 00:35:05,953 I mean, I don't know if this is-- 703 00:35:05,953 --> 00:35:06,447 ESTHER DUFLO: This is countries. 704 00:35:06,447 --> 00:35:08,045 AUDIENCE: --in the national sense. 705 00:35:08,045 --> 00:35:11,140 ESTHER DUFLO: Think of it's like he made this argument, 706 00:35:11,140 --> 00:35:14,780 not for a person, but for a country. 707 00:35:14,780 --> 00:35:18,926 What's different about these countries as well? 708 00:35:18,926 --> 00:35:21,878 AUDIENCE: They also have more greed. 709 00:35:21,878 --> 00:35:25,322 Their GDPs are higher, so they have some more 710 00:35:25,322 --> 00:35:26,310 opportunity for school. 711 00:35:26,310 --> 00:35:27,280 ESTHER DUFLO: Yes, they are more 712 00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:28,840 flourishing for younger people. 713 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:34,320 We run this graph with the number of 714 00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:35,730 football team you have. 715 00:35:39,100 --> 00:35:40,140 You would have a lot of zeroes. 716 00:35:40,140 --> 00:35:41,250 It wouldn't be such a good graph. 717 00:35:41,250 --> 00:35:44,900 But you would have the same relationship that places that 718 00:35:44,900 --> 00:35:47,200 play American football are also richer. 719 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,236 And we don't think it's because of American football. 720 00:35:50,236 --> 00:35:52,273 Or I mean I don't think so. 721 00:35:52,273 --> 00:35:55,500 You may have a different view. 722 00:35:55,500 --> 00:35:58,300 So that correlation is not very informative. 723 00:35:58,300 --> 00:36:01,480 So what he's suggesting is to say, so 724 00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,400 let's not look in levels. 725 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,982 Let's look in differences. 726 00:36:05,982 --> 00:36:08,270 And I couldn't find such a nice looking graph for 727 00:36:08,270 --> 00:36:10,650 differences, but here is one. 728 00:36:10,650 --> 00:36:18,220 Now we have the difference in human capital from it's 1990 729 00:36:18,220 --> 00:36:21,990 minus 1965. 730 00:36:21,990 --> 00:36:26,210 It's a difference in the log other ideas of education. 731 00:36:29,140 --> 00:36:32,096 And now we put the log difference in income. 732 00:36:32,096 --> 00:36:35,560 You could do it in level log, except that doesn't matter. 733 00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,170 What's relevant in this graph is you get a big cloud of 734 00:36:38,170 --> 00:36:41,250 points and a completely horizontal line. 735 00:36:41,250 --> 00:36:45,050 So if I can say this graph in words, what this is saying is 736 00:36:45,050 --> 00:36:49,220 that the countries which have increased the most the average 737 00:36:49,220 --> 00:36:52,270 years of education of their labor force, are the countries 738 00:36:52,270 --> 00:36:57,380 which have put more and more kids to school 739 00:36:57,380 --> 00:36:59,800 have not become richer. 740 00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:06,630 So you compare in the Easterly reading, he had a comparison 741 00:37:06,630 --> 00:37:09,110 between different African countries which had made 742 00:37:09,110 --> 00:37:11,170 different levels of progress-- 743 00:37:11,170 --> 00:37:14,770 so I think, so for example, Ghana versus Madagascar, and 744 00:37:14,770 --> 00:37:17,490 saying that Ghana has increased education more, 745 00:37:17,490 --> 00:37:19,980 Madagascar increased education more, and Ghana is not going 746 00:37:19,980 --> 00:37:21,365 faster than Madagascar. 747 00:37:21,365 --> 00:37:23,010 Actually, I don't think that's true anymore. 748 00:37:23,010 --> 00:37:26,210 I think subsequent to that, Ghana has increased quite good 749 00:37:26,210 --> 00:37:28,350 and quite a bit faster than Madagascar. 750 00:37:28,350 --> 00:37:30,970 But that's, let's say, was the point, were 751 00:37:30,970 --> 00:37:32,875 the keys at the time. 752 00:37:35,560 --> 00:37:37,980 So now we interpret him saying, well, when we take the 753 00:37:37,980 --> 00:37:42,800 difference out, now we are at least seeing what has been the 754 00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:46,090 effort terms of increasing the years of education, versus the 755 00:37:46,090 --> 00:37:48,300 gain in terms of increasing the GDP. 756 00:37:48,300 --> 00:37:49,990 And we see no effect. 757 00:37:49,990 --> 00:37:53,370 So the level relationship was all coming from this bias In 758 00:37:53,370 --> 00:37:56,990 fact, there's no effect of the years of education. 759 00:37:56,990 --> 00:38:00,420 And the bias in the level of regression are some form of 760 00:38:00,420 --> 00:38:07,210 the ability by us as USA which countries have more education, 761 00:38:07,210 --> 00:38:12,790 because it takes money to have teachers. 762 00:38:12,790 --> 00:38:14,380 They can afford it. 763 00:38:14,380 --> 00:38:17,870 Or maybe they choose to be educated because when it's 764 00:38:17,870 --> 00:38:20,880 more worthwhile to get an education if you can do 765 00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:22,470 something with that education. 766 00:38:22,470 --> 00:38:25,280 So that comes back to this argument of what's the point 767 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,300 of getting an education if you're going to come back to 768 00:38:27,300 --> 00:38:29,060 the village anyway? 769 00:38:29,060 --> 00:38:34,080 So if education allows you to take advantage of the 770 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,920 opportunities that are afforded by economic growth, 771 00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:39,870 then you're going to be more willing to get an education if 772 00:38:39,870 --> 00:38:43,380 you think that the country is going to grow a lot. 773 00:38:43,380 --> 00:38:45,450 So for all these reasons, and you would expect more 774 00:38:45,450 --> 00:38:48,630 education in rich countries, not because education causes 775 00:38:48,630 --> 00:38:51,860 growth, but because growths cause education. 776 00:38:51,860 --> 00:38:54,930 So his conclusion is that internationally driven 777 00:38:54,930 --> 00:38:58,425 investment to education were a waste, that education is 778 00:38:58,425 --> 00:39:01,020 actually useless. 779 00:39:01,020 --> 00:39:03,320 Now there's a bunch of problems with his argument, 780 00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:07,190 because in a sense what he is saying is that I don't see any 781 00:39:07,190 --> 00:39:11,680 evidence across country that there is a lot of increase in 782 00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,170 GDP coming from increasing education. 783 00:39:14,170 --> 00:39:16,210 But the issue is we don't know why these 784 00:39:16,210 --> 00:39:17,640 countries increase education. 785 00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,250 We don't know what would have happened if they had not 786 00:39:20,250 --> 00:39:21,930 increased education. 787 00:39:21,930 --> 00:39:24,940 So for example, many of the African countries that 788 00:39:24,940 --> 00:39:27,420 increased education the most also had severe civil war 789 00:39:27,420 --> 00:39:29,330 subsequently. 790 00:39:29,330 --> 00:39:32,050 It is possible that education caused the civil war, but it's 791 00:39:32,050 --> 00:39:33,440 not very likely. 792 00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:38,040 It is more likely that the social tension that preexisted 793 00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:42,440 in the country caused the civil war. 794 00:39:42,440 --> 00:39:46,300 One possible answer to the social tension may have been, 795 00:39:46,300 --> 00:39:48,410 well, let's try and get people an education. 796 00:39:48,410 --> 00:39:49,310 Yep? 797 00:39:49,310 --> 00:39:51,930 AUDIENCE: This is interesting because I guess in our 798 00:39:51,930 --> 00:39:56,220 standard macro classes, you look at a factor of A as a 799 00:39:56,220 --> 00:39:58,860 multiplicative factor that increase in GDP. 800 00:39:58,860 --> 00:40:02,572 And typically, maybe I'm thinking about it wrong, you 801 00:40:02,572 --> 00:40:05,790 look at that as if you have increased education, it could 802 00:40:05,790 --> 00:40:07,770 be worth more innovation. 803 00:40:07,770 --> 00:40:11,400 If you have the technology, you still go for the forms or 804 00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:12,150 operating a computer. 805 00:40:12,150 --> 00:40:15,650 And education helps facilitate that group. 806 00:40:15,650 --> 00:40:19,800 So I'm a little confused as to how you make this conjecture. 807 00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,266 ESTHER DUFLO: So that's an interesting fact. 808 00:40:22,266 --> 00:40:27,230 I think in a sense, in your macro class you may have been 809 00:40:27,230 --> 00:40:28,480 interpreting this graph. 810 00:40:31,570 --> 00:40:35,180 And there is certainly a lot of theories for why education 811 00:40:35,180 --> 00:40:36,680 would be good for growth. 812 00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,350 So one of them is the one you point out. 813 00:40:43,730 --> 00:40:45,860 This is the externality argument that we were making 814 00:40:45,860 --> 00:40:46,900 about the movie. 815 00:40:46,900 --> 00:40:51,160 One person who is educated can figure out some technology, 816 00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:52,890 and then everybody can use the technology. 817 00:40:52,890 --> 00:40:54,800 So they are all these spill-overs, which is why we 818 00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,385 would get this pretty strong relationship between education 819 00:40:57,385 --> 00:40:58,320 and income. 820 00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:00,740 So there a lot of theoretical reasons to think that there 821 00:41:00,740 --> 00:41:03,355 could be a macroeconomic relationship between education 822 00:41:03,355 --> 00:41:04,560 and income. 823 00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:09,070 And in fact, we see one, which is why everybody is happy 824 00:41:09,070 --> 00:41:11,070 thinking education is a good thing. 825 00:41:11,070 --> 00:41:14,110 What Easterly is saying is just commenting on this graph, 826 00:41:14,110 --> 00:41:16,670 which is he doesn't see a relationship. 827 00:41:16,670 --> 00:41:18,665 Because when he does, the relationship in differences 828 00:41:18,665 --> 00:41:22,690 now between growth and education and growth and 829 00:41:22,690 --> 00:41:24,620 income, he doesn't see the relationship anymore. 830 00:41:24,620 --> 00:41:25,970 AUDIENCE: How long is that? 831 00:41:25,970 --> 00:41:30,160 ESTHER DUFLO: That's 1990, 1965, just about 30 years. 832 00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:31,050 Yup? 833 00:41:31,050 --> 00:41:32,490 AUDIENCE: I have a question. 834 00:41:32,490 --> 00:41:34,775 In Easterly's paper, he mentions the 835 00:41:34,775 --> 00:41:38,170 productivity factor. 836 00:41:38,170 --> 00:41:40,917 And he says that only a small percentage of this is 837 00:41:40,917 --> 00:41:44,257 accounted for by [INAUDIBLE] capital and by machinery and 838 00:41:44,257 --> 00:41:45,990 other forms of capital. 839 00:41:45,990 --> 00:41:47,970 What is the rest of it? 840 00:41:47,970 --> 00:41:50,445 Like, what is productivity in that case? 841 00:41:50,445 --> 00:41:53,380 ESTHER DUFLO: So that's an excellent question. 842 00:41:53,380 --> 00:41:57,025 The answer to this question is that's what I do what I do and 843 00:41:57,025 --> 00:41:59,120 not macroeconomics. 844 00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:04,330 If you're looking at growth across country, and you're 845 00:42:04,330 --> 00:42:08,480 trying to account for the growth in an pure accounting 846 00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:13,900 sense, which is to say, so imagine that you each country 847 00:42:13,900 --> 00:42:15,660 is a big machine. 848 00:42:15,660 --> 00:42:17,870 Think of a country as a machine. 849 00:42:17,870 --> 00:42:20,760 So there is a machine. 850 00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,010 There are some people to operate the machine, labor. 851 00:42:24,010 --> 00:42:26,300 And there is some human capital to think about how to 852 00:42:26,300 --> 00:42:27,410 operate the machine. 853 00:42:27,410 --> 00:42:29,860 And then there is some spunk. 854 00:42:29,860 --> 00:42:33,790 So think of a macroeconomy as that. 855 00:42:33,790 --> 00:42:38,720 In letters, we write it as an A multiplied by K, that's the 856 00:42:38,720 --> 00:42:42,660 capital, to some power, multiply by L to some power, 857 00:42:42,660 --> 00:42:45,160 multiply by human capital to some power. 858 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:46,870 That's your macroeconomic model of an income. 859 00:42:51,720 --> 00:42:53,580 We can observe K to some extent. 860 00:42:53,580 --> 00:42:55,440 What's the capital in the economy? 861 00:42:55,440 --> 00:43:00,480 We can observe L to a pretty good extent, how many workers 862 00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:01,830 there are in the economy. 863 00:43:01,830 --> 00:43:05,420 We can observe H to some extent, what is the the human 864 00:43:05,420 --> 00:43:07,235 capital, usually measured with education. 865 00:43:12,660 --> 00:43:15,880 And the rest spunk is what we don't observe. 866 00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:20,450 Now we can say, well, let's look at what share of the 867 00:43:20,450 --> 00:43:24,360 level of income of the country, differences in income 868 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,520 across country, are what share of differences in growth 869 00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,100 across country are explained by those factors. 870 00:43:30,100 --> 00:43:33,010 And the answer is not very much. 871 00:43:33,010 --> 00:43:36,360 So the answer is that we use factors such as capital, 872 00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:39,070 labor, and human capital, measured in this way. 873 00:43:39,070 --> 00:43:41,220 We don't explain much of the gross 874 00:43:41,220 --> 00:43:43,040 differences across country. 875 00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,860 This is one of the reasons why, which when you look at 876 00:43:45,860 --> 00:43:48,250 growth and you look at the differences in human capital, 877 00:43:48,250 --> 00:43:50,350 there's just no relationship. 878 00:43:50,350 --> 00:43:52,910 There's a bit more with physical capital. 879 00:43:52,910 --> 00:43:55,500 And the rest is like, we don't know. 880 00:43:55,500 --> 00:43:59,210 So technological progress is just a fancy term for we have 881 00:43:59,210 --> 00:44:05,670 no clue what the hell is going on, which is to me saying that 882 00:44:05,670 --> 00:44:08,160 well, if we have no clue what the hell is going on, then it 883 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,060 means that we need to go beyond thinking of the economy 884 00:44:11,060 --> 00:44:12,280 as one big machine. 885 00:44:12,280 --> 00:44:15,950 And we need to start to understand what is happening. 886 00:44:15,950 --> 00:44:16,890 Look at micro level. 887 00:44:16,890 --> 00:44:21,010 That might start giving us a sense of what might actually 888 00:44:21,010 --> 00:44:22,120 be going on. 889 00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:27,230 Because technological progress is not just how good is the 890 00:44:27,230 --> 00:44:29,070 chip in your computer. 891 00:44:29,070 --> 00:44:33,250 You think of this as, as I was saying, the spunk, how people 892 00:44:33,250 --> 00:44:34,548 interact, all of that. 893 00:44:40,370 --> 00:44:46,640 So in your macro class, you either saw this graph and 894 00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:50,270 commented on it, or you may also seen a graph where you 895 00:44:50,270 --> 00:44:53,580 have growth on the left hand side and level of education. 896 00:44:53,580 --> 00:44:55,260 You do see a strong relationship 897 00:44:55,260 --> 00:44:57,040 between growth and level. 898 00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:01,900 These countries which had more education in 1965 have grown 899 00:45:01,900 --> 00:45:05,340 faster between '65 and 1990. 900 00:45:05,340 --> 00:45:08,690 But what Easterly objects to that is that yes, of course. 901 00:45:08,690 --> 00:45:11,320 Because if you anticipate growth, that's how you're 902 00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:12,850 going to decide to get education. 903 00:45:12,850 --> 00:45:15,540 Because education becomes more worthwhile. 904 00:45:15,540 --> 00:45:20,180 So that does not tell me that education is worth anything. 905 00:45:20,180 --> 00:45:24,510 So that's where we are with the macro data. 906 00:45:24,510 --> 00:45:29,110 And my bottom line is not that your macro class is wrong or 907 00:45:29,110 --> 00:45:31,130 that your macro class is right. 908 00:45:31,130 --> 00:45:33,770 My bottom line is we just don't know by just looking at 909 00:45:33,770 --> 00:45:34,910 these data. 910 00:45:34,910 --> 00:45:35,880 We don't have enough data points. 911 00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:37,730 And anything could have happened. 912 00:45:37,730 --> 00:45:40,340 In the countries which were about to have wars may have 913 00:45:40,340 --> 00:45:43,520 invested more in education perhaps as an attempt to not 914 00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:44,790 have those wars. 915 00:45:44,790 --> 00:45:46,160 Who knows. 916 00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,500 So in order to answer the question of what's the 917 00:45:48,500 --> 00:45:57,140 benefits of education, we need to look at specific examples. 918 00:45:57,140 --> 00:45:59,860 So ideally, I would have liked to look, for you, at the 919 00:45:59,860 --> 00:46:02,140 example of Turkey, because we just saw it in the movie. 920 00:46:02,140 --> 00:46:04,190 But I don't have it. 921 00:46:04,190 --> 00:46:07,280 So we'll be looking at the example of Indonesia. 922 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:11,500 So if we are looking at the effect of supply-driven 923 00:46:11,500 --> 00:46:14,460 expansion, there are some arguments where one could see 924 00:46:14,460 --> 00:46:15,770 that it's not going to work. 925 00:46:15,770 --> 00:46:18,580 And these are arguments that Easterly is making. 926 00:46:18,580 --> 00:46:21,180 And we kind of all saw them in the movie. 927 00:46:21,180 --> 00:46:23,850 There was the point about the teacher quality. 928 00:46:23,850 --> 00:46:26,500 If the teachers don't care because they've just been spar 929 00:46:26,500 --> 00:46:29,540 shooted by a central government to the community 930 00:46:29,540 --> 00:46:34,610 exactly as you were saying, then the level of education is 931 00:46:34,610 --> 00:46:36,840 not going to be very good. 932 00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,940 If the parents don't care and just do it because they have 933 00:46:39,940 --> 00:46:42,630 to do it, then they are not going to put pressure on the 934 00:46:42,630 --> 00:46:44,790 teachers to actually deliver. 935 00:46:44,790 --> 00:46:48,930 And they're not going to put pressure on the children to 936 00:46:48,930 --> 00:46:50,660 actually learn. 937 00:46:50,660 --> 00:46:54,050 So the | case is the point that you were making earlier, 938 00:46:54,050 --> 00:46:56,840 where the children are all alone in boarding school, and 939 00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:58,640 nobody's looking after what they do. 940 00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:01,460 And potentially, they learn nothing, or they might learn 941 00:47:01,460 --> 00:47:04,320 to do all sorts of bad stuff. 942 00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:08,110 So if parents do not think that schools are delivering 943 00:47:08,110 --> 00:47:10,470 anything useful, then they won't pay attention. 944 00:47:10,470 --> 00:47:12,340 And finally, children, if they also don't 945 00:47:12,340 --> 00:47:13,760 care, won't pay attention. 946 00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:15,490 So these are all theoretical arguments. 947 00:47:15,490 --> 00:47:17,510 I'm not saying they are correct. 948 00:47:17,510 --> 00:47:18,910 But these are the types of argument 949 00:47:18,910 --> 00:47:20,820 that Easterly is making. 950 00:47:20,820 --> 00:47:23,340 So how would we know whether or not there is 951 00:47:23,340 --> 00:47:25,130 a benefit of education? 952 00:47:25,130 --> 00:47:27,870 So as I was saying, I don't you want to interpret the 953 00:47:27,870 --> 00:47:28,880 cross-country evidence. 954 00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,040 I think it's very difficult to interpret. 955 00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,180 So I want to focus on one country, and this one company 956 00:47:34,180 --> 00:47:39,840 that did almost the same thing that Turkey did. 957 00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:44,040 And fortunately for us, they did not a few years ago, but 958 00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:45,370 many years ago. 959 00:47:45,370 --> 00:47:48,600 So now we can look at those kids as they are 960 00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:49,630 in the labor market. 961 00:47:49,630 --> 00:47:53,640 And we can see whether it was beneficial for them to be sent 962 00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:55,120 to these schools. 963 00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,290 So that country is Indonesia. 964 00:47:57,290 --> 00:47:59,880 Indonesia is an oil-producing country. 965 00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:03,560 So when there was a big oil shock in 1970, starting in 966 00:48:03,560 --> 00:48:07,230 1973, for Indonesia, it was actually good news. 967 00:48:07,230 --> 00:48:10,470 Because there were producing oil, so they became richer. 968 00:48:10,470 --> 00:48:13,960 And they decided that they were going to use this oil 969 00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:16,900 money to build a lot of schools. 970 00:48:16,900 --> 00:48:19,210 Basically, all the oil money the first few years went into 971 00:48:19,210 --> 00:48:21,300 building tons of schools. 972 00:48:21,300 --> 00:48:24,400 Tons means they build almost 62,000 schools 973 00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,110 all over the country. 974 00:48:26,110 --> 00:48:30,580 But particularly in places which had a low education 975 00:48:30,580 --> 00:48:31,600 enrollment. 976 00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,230 So it's your ultimate top down. 977 00:48:34,230 --> 00:48:36,330 Furthermore, what is interesting in relationship 978 00:48:36,330 --> 00:48:39,310 with Turkey is that they had exactly the same objective, 979 00:48:39,310 --> 00:48:43,300 which is they wanted the kids to learn Bahasa Indonesia. 980 00:48:43,300 --> 00:48:46,790 That's the language for the country, even people in the 981 00:48:46,790 --> 00:48:48,710 outlying island and stuff like that. 982 00:48:48,710 --> 00:48:51,930 And they wanted everyone to learn the state ideology, 983 00:48:51,930 --> 00:48:52,860 which was the Pancasila. 984 00:48:52,860 --> 00:48:57,160 It's kind of halfway between an ideology and a religion 985 00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:57,780 that [INAUDIBLE] 986 00:48:57,780 --> 00:48:59,280 was keen on. 987 00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:01,600 So it was entirely pushed by public effort. 988 00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:07,770 If it was going to fail, then this was going to fail. 989 00:49:07,770 --> 00:49:09,724 And what do we see? 990 00:49:09,724 --> 00:49:14,395 So these graphs are the number of schools that were built in 991 00:49:14,395 --> 00:49:16,030 the region. 992 00:49:16,030 --> 00:49:18,690 And this is the difference between the education of the 993 00:49:18,690 --> 00:49:22,350 young cohort who benefited from the school, and education 994 00:49:22,350 --> 00:49:24,880 of the old guys who didn't benefit. 995 00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:28,290 So you see that in general, it's always positive, because 996 00:49:28,290 --> 00:49:30,450 education went up over time between the 997 00:49:30,450 --> 00:49:31,280 younger and the old. 998 00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:32,670 That makes sense. 999 00:49:32,670 --> 00:49:36,810 But it is also increasing in slope, that is, places which 1000 00:49:36,810 --> 00:49:40,040 got more schools got more years of education. 1001 00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:42,415 Maybe that's not surprising, because that's almost a 1002 00:49:42,415 --> 00:49:44,680 mechanical result of putting schools. 1003 00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,270 But this graph is an interesting one. 1004 00:49:47,270 --> 00:49:52,060 I'm now looking at the wages of people in 1995, difference 1005 00:49:52,060 --> 00:49:54,990 between the wages of the young, minus the 1006 00:49:54,990 --> 00:49:56,240 wages of the old. 1007 00:49:58,830 --> 00:50:02,450 Now it's all negative, because old people have more 1008 00:50:02,450 --> 00:50:05,030 experience and tend to make more money. 1009 00:50:05,030 --> 00:50:07,960 But what is interesting is not the negative thing. 1010 00:50:07,960 --> 00:50:09,230 It's the slope again. 1011 00:50:09,230 --> 00:50:11,690 The slope is again positive. 1012 00:50:11,690 --> 00:50:15,790 So it is saying that compared to the old guys, the young 1013 00:50:15,790 --> 00:50:20,576 people benefit more in places which build more schools. 1014 00:50:20,576 --> 00:50:23,500 And it's very difficult to think of a story why would 1015 00:50:23,500 --> 00:50:25,675 this be the case, except that the 1016 00:50:25,675 --> 00:50:27,920 benefit is from the education. 1017 00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:32,410 So it seems to be the case that parachuting more schools 1018 00:50:32,410 --> 00:50:34,230 to communities increase the years of 1019 00:50:34,230 --> 00:50:37,320 education, increase wages. 1020 00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:40,740 And that seems to imply that education increases wages. 1021 00:50:40,740 --> 00:50:45,150 And in fact, if you put two and two together, you find 1022 00:50:45,150 --> 00:50:50,420 that the effect of education on wages is about 8%. 1023 00:50:50,420 --> 00:50:53,460 You can use similar experiments to look at the 1024 00:50:53,460 --> 00:50:56,180 non-monetary effect of education. 1025 00:50:56,180 --> 00:51:00,490 So Taiwan around the same time, little bit before, also 1026 00:51:00,490 --> 00:51:03,480 did a top down drive to increase education. 1027 00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:09,380 What they did is compulsory education. 1028 00:51:09,380 --> 00:51:13,000 And what you find in 1968, and what you'll find is compulsory 1029 00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:16,420 education in Taiwan led to an increase of education. 1030 00:51:16,420 --> 00:51:20,290 That's not surprising but also a reduction in infant 1031 00:51:20,290 --> 00:51:22,860 mortality in places where education 1032 00:51:22,860 --> 00:51:24,790 increased more as a result. 1033 00:51:24,790 --> 00:51:28,550 So again, these are the non-monetary benefits. 1034 00:51:28,550 --> 00:51:31,140 Nigeria did the same thing as Indonesia for the 1035 00:51:31,140 --> 00:51:32,680 same type of reasons. 1036 00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:34,800 They used their oil money to build schools. 1037 00:51:34,800 --> 00:51:36,590 Again, they built more schools in some 1038 00:51:36,590 --> 00:51:38,200 regions than some others. 1039 00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:42,920 And again you can compare the changes in infant mortality, 1040 00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,040 and infertility, and in wages in places where they built 1041 00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:47,330 more schools and in places where 1042 00:51:47,330 --> 00:51:48,670 they built fewer schools. 1043 00:51:48,670 --> 00:51:51,630 And the more schools they built, the higher the 1044 00:51:51,630 --> 00:51:53,610 education, the higher the wages, the lower the 1045 00:51:53,610 --> 00:51:56,210 infertilities, the lower the infant mortalities. 1046 00:51:56,210 --> 00:52:02,200 So the bottom line, when we do look at specific top down 1047 00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:05,800 policies is that they actually are useful, that it seems to 1048 00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:09,080 be that there is a returns to education, corresponding to 1049 00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:12,850 about 8% increase in wages for every extra year that you 1050 00:52:12,850 --> 00:52:15,140 spend in school. 1051 00:52:15,140 --> 00:52:20,530 So when we look at this thing in detail and we answer these 1052 00:52:20,530 --> 00:52:23,225 questions, we see yes, there is a benefit of education. 1053 00:52:23,225 --> 00:52:26,980 What we are going to do next is to say, well, is the 1054 00:52:26,980 --> 00:52:29,200 benefit as high as it could be? 1055 00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:31,010 And that's where we are going to see the limits of these 1056 00:52:31,010 --> 00:52:34,480 kinds of things, having to do with the quality of education, 1057 00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:36,370 the motivation of the teachers, the motivation of 1058 00:52:36,370 --> 00:52:39,230 the parents, et cetera, which we'll do next time.