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WILLIAM BONVILLIAN:
Rasheed, why don't you

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give us that point that you
were making to me about DARPA.

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RASHEED: Yes, so DARPA relies
very heavily on this program

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manager structure.

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So they give these program
managers a lot of power

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and a lot of leeway to
do whatever they want.

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But they have-- they have to
have a very distinct vision

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from the outset,
like really when they

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start to be able to do things.

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And so I was concerned that
these program managers were

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going to basically be
coming from the same places

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over and over again, and so
have very similar visions.

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And you're going to
be able to miss out

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on a lot of
different talent that

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exists outside, or a lot
of different new projects,

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or new fields, maybe,
just like you're talking

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about-- these new
collaboration between biology

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and kind of humans and computer
science, things like that.

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But that was really
my main concern,

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was program managers
weren't being chosen as--

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equitably isn't the word,
but that the selection

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process of these program
managers was actually--

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might be too narrow.

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WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: But
they do get visionaries.

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STUDENT: Sometimes.

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I mean, I think we
mentioned that they only

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got white males [INAUDIBLE].

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WILLIAM BONVILLIAN:
OK, so I'm going

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to move us to Tammy Carleton.

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And Tammy's big
perception about DARPA

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is this vision perception, that
that's a critical factor that

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makes DARPA different.

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And there is a
process that DARPA

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has developed for this radical
technological visioning.

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And essentially, she argues that
there's six stages that they

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use to kind of get there.

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First, recruitment
of great talent--

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and the talent, they
hear about talent

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from this DARPA network,
which is now quite huge.

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Because all of the people that
get DARPA contracts and awards,

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they stay in this
kind of DARPA family.

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And typically, researchers
love to work for DARPA.

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Because working on DARPA-hard
problems is really intriguing.

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So that's a community that
tends to know each other,

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and be in communication,
as well as

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the community of former DARPA
program managers and officials.

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So a lot of the talent
comes through that network,

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which kind of knows
what's going to work.

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So the recruitment and the
vision get united in a way,

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in that recruitment process.

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Then comes the stage of
the vision formulation.

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The program manager
has got to figure out

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what they're going to do with
their four or five years.

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And they've got to
formulate a radical vision,

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a right/left vision,
what's going to come out

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of that pipeline, and what's
the fundamental research that

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going to get me there.

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And it's driving for
that breakthrough that's

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the organizing proposition.

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Then, they've got to
go through defining

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a program and its launch.

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Often, they will
have a workshop,

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an invitation-only
workshop, where

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they'll assemble 25, 30, 40
of the kind of best thinkers

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on a project area, and
meet for a day or two days.

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I've watched one of those,
which got held up at MIT as part

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of the beginnings of creating
this Biological Technologies

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office.

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And they brought in just
an amazing collection,

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from MIT and from
elsewhere, of thinkers

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about what some of
the early projects

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might be to achieve some
of these capabilities.

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So the Deputy Director
of DARPA came up,

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and kind of helped
run this workshop

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and think this through.

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The office wasn't
set up for a while

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until the next DARPA
director, but it really

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helped contribute
to that portfolio.

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And it was a really
serious effort.

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So the program manager
develops a portfolio approach

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of standing up a
series of groups

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that are going to be working on
this, and inter-relating them.

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And the program
manager is also going

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to be responsible for making
this technology transfer.

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So in other words,
it's not enough just

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to do something cool.

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You've got to move it into
the implementation stage.

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And how is that going to happen?

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So the program manager
has got to undertake

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all of these various steps.

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So the criteria for
being DARPA hard

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is that the project has
to be technologically very

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challenging.

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It's got to extend beyond the
current limits of technology

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and knowledge.

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Otherwise, they don't
really want to do it.

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It's got to be actionable,
which means it can be made.

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It can be built.
It can be produced.

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So if it can't be, why do it?

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You've got to be
able to demonstrate

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that it's actionable.

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Typically
multidisciplinary-- that it's

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going to draw on a variety
of areas of expertise.

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It's got to be far reaching.

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It's got to change things.

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It's got to be very
ambitious at a big scale.

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"Don't do little things" is
kind of a DARPA sub-rule.

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And various techniques
to flesh out the vision

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include those
expert-only workshops,

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and a proof of concept effort.

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Sometimes, if it's some
idea that looks promising,

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they'll do what DARPA calls
a "seedling," just put

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a little money on it,
and let somebody play

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with it, a real
thinker play with it,

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and see what it might
materialize into.

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So they've got that
seedling capability.

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There is no training system
for program managers.

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They don't go through
any kind of training.

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They just arrive.

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And they kind of learn
from other program managers

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what they're supposed to do.

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So there's a very strong
kind of DARPA culture

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about how it operates, that gets
communicated by word of mouth

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and kind of learning by doing.

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And it's informal exchange,
but there is a very strong kind

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of operating rules set.

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DARPA program
managers really have

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to be quite entrepreneurial.

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And Martine, you were
raising this earlier.

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They've got to stand up
a whole new territory.

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And to do that,
they've got to be

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highly entrepreneurial about
how to bring that about.

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And the decision to stand
up a vision program--

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this is not set up
through peer review.

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There isn't consensus
decision-making at DARPA.

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That program manager has got
to have a really strong vision,

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and it's got to get
really organized.

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And then it's got to
withstand the office director

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and then the DARPA director
really tearing through it,

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and really analyzing it.

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So once you get that,
though, the approvals

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can be very fast,
once the decision is

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made to stand something up.

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And that the program
manager really is--

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to go back to that term
that you liked, Steph--

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a vision champion.

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They've got to champion this
vision and make it happen.

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That's what the program
manager has got to do.

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So DARPA starts with division.

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That is not how
industry operates.

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That's not how other
government agencies operate.

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Industry works largely on what's
called a "stage gate system."

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So industry is going
to want to do typically

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more incremental
kind of advances,

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because the advances can snap
onto markets that it's already

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got, and economic opportunities
that it already sees,

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and technologies that it's
already starting to explore.

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So it's typically
going to want to do

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more incremental advances.

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And it's only going to do those
incremental advances if they

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can optimize them economically.

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So an industry R&D
project has got

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to go through a series of
stage gates, which essentially

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is a way of tearing down
a large menu of stuff

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and getting to the most
economically optimal.

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Industry stage gate process
is not a technology visioning

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system.

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It's not deciding on
a vision and doing

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whatever is necessary
to get there, which

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is the way DARPA operates.

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It's a much more limited set
of procedural stage gates

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that a technology idea
has got to go through.

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So DARPA just working
on a very different kind

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of organizational model from the
way in which things are done,

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either at other agencies
or within industry.

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And starting with
this vision up front

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is a really interesting
organizational idea,

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that you all should kind
of keep in mind when you're

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operating out there, and
setting up your own companies,

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and doing your own startups.

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So Max, you've got
Tammy Carleton's piece.

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MAX: Right.

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The key step within
Carleton's five steps

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that I thought was
most interesting

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00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:40,060
was the fifth one,
technology transfer, which

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is supposed to bridge the R&D--

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the valley of death,
as it were, that

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enables a different scientific
idea to be commercialized,

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and to actually affect people
all over the world, eventually.

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While reading, I
kind of realized

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that DARPA seems like they have
a pretty decent organization.

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They get things done
relatively efficiently.

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00:10:05,260 --> 00:10:07,220
They have a lot of money.

201
00:10:07,220 --> 00:10:08,970
Why is it they have--

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and I actually just
decided to start googling,

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to try to figure out if DARPA
had done anything related

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00:10:13,750 --> 00:10:14,260
to fusion.

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And I couldn't find anything.

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00:10:16,090 --> 00:10:20,492
So I'm curious, why not?

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WILLIAM BONVILLIAN:
Well, actually,

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00:10:21,950 --> 00:10:24,730
DARPA deferred on
energy technologies

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00:10:24,730 --> 00:10:28,030
to ARPA-E, when
ARPA-E got stood up,

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00:10:28,030 --> 00:10:32,680
because DARPA views
ARPA-E as a compatriot.

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And ARPA-E interestingly, has
done some extremely interesting

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work on fusion.

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00:10:38,992 --> 00:10:41,590
STUDENT: I know Lockheed
[INAUDIBLE] fusion--

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WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Right.

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00:10:42,673 --> 00:10:43,630
STUDENT: [INAUDIBLE]

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00:10:43,630 --> 00:10:47,243
MAX: Yeah, but
Lockheed Martin's--

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00:10:47,243 --> 00:10:49,410
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Well,
they have the Skunk Works.

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00:10:49,410 --> 00:10:50,050
MAX: They do.

219
00:10:50,050 --> 00:10:52,675
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: And DARPA's
done an enormous amount of work

220
00:10:52,675 --> 00:10:56,013
with the Skunk Works over
time, including stealth.

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00:10:56,013 --> 00:10:58,180
MAX: Granted, yes-- they
definitely have a facility,

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00:10:58,180 --> 00:11:00,880
and they definitely have
the project managers.

223
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:02,620
I just feel that
it's a bit of an area

224
00:11:02,620 --> 00:11:04,150
outside of their expertise.

225
00:11:04,150 --> 00:11:06,657
They're going to accidentally
make it fly and stuff.

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00:11:06,657 --> 00:11:07,740
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Right.

227
00:11:07,740 --> 00:11:09,790
And look-- another issue
for DARPA is-- remember,

228
00:11:09,790 --> 00:11:11,582
these technologies have
got to get stood up

229
00:11:11,582 --> 00:11:14,213
in the lifetime of the project.

230
00:11:14,213 --> 00:11:15,130
MAX: Yeah, five years.

231
00:11:15,130 --> 00:11:16,370
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Like
a five year project.

232
00:11:16,370 --> 00:11:18,040
So if you can't do
it within five years,

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00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:20,410
it's very hard to put
it on the DARPA agenda.

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00:11:20,410 --> 00:11:22,832
MAX: Well, you mentioned
that some of the projects

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00:11:22,832 --> 00:11:24,790
would get handed off to
other project managers.

236
00:11:24,790 --> 00:11:25,120
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Yes.

237
00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,630
MAX: So that's how long
a manager lasts, right?

238
00:11:27,630 --> 00:11:28,630
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Yes.

239
00:11:28,630 --> 00:11:30,790
MAX: But it's not always
how long a project lasts.

240
00:11:30,790 --> 00:11:31,790
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Yes.

241
00:11:31,790 --> 00:11:34,690
Sometimes, there can be
intergenerational transfers.

242
00:11:34,690 --> 00:11:38,620
And then Licklider developed
a different kind of system.

243
00:11:38,620 --> 00:11:44,080
He created a community
that kept continuing

244
00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:45,880
with the same kind
of ethos, working

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00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:47,770
on that same set
of agenda items,

246
00:11:47,770 --> 00:11:50,200
working them down
one after another,

247
00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:53,205
and making progress year
after year on each of them.

248
00:11:53,205 --> 00:11:54,580
So that's a
different kind of way

249
00:11:54,580 --> 00:11:56,080
that DARPA is going
to be organized.

250
00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:59,530
But typically, once
the program manager

251
00:11:59,530 --> 00:12:03,250
leaves who had the
vision, their job

252
00:12:03,250 --> 00:12:05,790
is to get that implemented
in their, in effect,

253
00:12:05,790 --> 00:12:07,240
DARPA lifetime.

254
00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,150
And if they haven't,
then it's hard for DARPA

255
00:12:10,150 --> 00:12:13,810
to continue that,
which we could view

256
00:12:13,810 --> 00:12:16,525
as a weakness of the program.

257
00:12:16,525 --> 00:12:18,650
On the other hand, you
could view it as a strength.

258
00:12:18,650 --> 00:12:20,817
MAX: Yeah, because then
they make sure that things--

259
00:12:20,817 --> 00:12:22,600
that if they are
working, then they keep--

260
00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,250
they may proceed with
it, or they pass it off

261
00:12:24,250 --> 00:12:25,090
to someone else.

262
00:12:25,090 --> 00:12:26,090
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Yes.

263
00:12:30,570 --> 00:12:33,990
MAX: So speaking of Licklider,
actually, while I was reading,

264
00:12:33,990 --> 00:12:37,980
I noticed that Licklider had
mentioned that he heavily

265
00:12:37,980 --> 00:12:40,480
relied on standardized tests
when picking candidates,

266
00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,440
so like that recruitment
of great talent.

267
00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,300
Given that literally
everyone in this room

268
00:12:45,300 --> 00:12:48,270
has experience with standardized
testing, and at least

269
00:12:48,270 --> 00:12:51,840
I can't speak for everyone,
but I don't like it very much.

270
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:52,550
I wonder--

271
00:12:52,550 --> 00:12:53,842
STUDENT: [INAUDIBLE] two tests.

272
00:12:53,842 --> 00:12:54,690
MAX: Which two?

273
00:12:54,690 --> 00:12:55,350
It was ACTs.

274
00:12:55,350 --> 00:12:56,490
STUDENT: One was
like a psych test,

275
00:12:56,490 --> 00:12:57,626
and the other one was
like a [INAUDIBLE]..

276
00:12:57,626 --> 00:12:58,320
STUDENT 1: GRE.

277
00:12:58,320 --> 00:12:59,742
We did the GRE, it said.

278
00:12:59,742 --> 00:13:01,200
STUDENT: Well,
there's another one,

279
00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:02,742
but it seemed like
a psychology test.

280
00:13:02,742 --> 00:13:04,013
I'm not sure.

281
00:13:04,013 --> 00:13:05,680
STUDENT 1: So I think
that she mentioned

282
00:13:05,680 --> 00:13:08,800
that he was the only one who
asked for test scores at all.

283
00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,997
And one was the GRE,
which is kind of weird.

284
00:13:12,997 --> 00:13:15,580
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Remember,
he was a psychologist coming out

285
00:13:15,580 --> 00:13:16,930
of the testing world.

286
00:13:16,930 --> 00:13:21,060
So that's probably
part of the reason.

287
00:13:21,060 --> 00:13:25,270
MAX: I'll chalk it up to
[INAUDIBLE],, because there's

288
00:13:25,270 --> 00:13:27,187
only so much a standardized
test can tell you.

289
00:13:27,187 --> 00:13:29,353
They won't really tell you
how you work with people.

290
00:13:29,353 --> 00:13:30,970
They won't tell you
anything about how

291
00:13:30,970 --> 00:13:33,580
you work on anything that's
not related to, I don't know,

292
00:13:33,580 --> 00:13:36,205
math or literature.

293
00:13:36,205 --> 00:13:38,830
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: He did come
up with a pretty talented team,

294
00:13:38,830 --> 00:13:39,140
though.

295
00:13:39,140 --> 00:13:40,098
MAX: Yeah, that's true.

296
00:13:40,098 --> 00:13:42,870
STUDENT: I mean, you get
pretty far on psychology tests,

297
00:13:42,870 --> 00:13:44,460
especially when it
comes to intertia.

298
00:13:44,460 --> 00:13:46,835
Because you have to figure
out, for really good visionary

299
00:13:46,835 --> 00:13:49,560
leaders, what
they'll figure out is

300
00:13:49,560 --> 00:13:52,040
they're intellectuals,
introverts, extroverts,

301
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,800
and they have a supporting
side to their psyche.

302
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,560
And they're kind of like
the avatar of team groups.

303
00:13:58,560 --> 00:14:02,190
So it's pretty good for if you
want to find out good leaders.

304
00:14:02,190 --> 00:14:04,964
And I know it's been pretty
effective in manageent theory

305
00:14:04,964 --> 00:14:06,862
when you use psych tests.

306
00:14:06,862 --> 00:14:08,320
It's also really
good to figure out

307
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,535
who is going to be a
really good scientist,

308
00:14:10,535 --> 00:14:12,160
because it's usually
highly introverted

309
00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:16,120
and comes up with new insights
that doesn't follow the crowd.

310
00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:17,830
So I can see why
that's important.

311
00:14:17,830 --> 00:14:20,840
The GRE might be, but
also, if your score is low,

312
00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:22,967
but if you've come out
with a good body of work,

313
00:14:22,967 --> 00:14:24,550
then they can probably
assume that you

314
00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:26,383
are pretty smart, even
if you didn't do well

315
00:14:26,383 --> 00:14:27,331
on standardized tests.

316
00:14:29,902 --> 00:14:31,860
STUDENT 2: Because I'm
looking up her LinkedIn.

317
00:14:31,860 --> 00:14:35,080
And it says that she has-- her
background is in communication.

318
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,080
And then she got a Master's
in Public Relations.

319
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:39,625
And then she did a PhD in
Mechanical Engineering Design.

320
00:14:39,625 --> 00:14:42,000
But that must have been back
in the day when the D School

321
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,090
at Stanford accepted
non-engineers

322
00:14:45,090 --> 00:14:47,820
and non-scientists,
because now they don't.

323
00:14:47,820 --> 00:14:51,840
So it would be curious to
think about the ways in which

324
00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,750
her background, in particular,
might give her that insight

325
00:14:54,750 --> 00:14:57,870
that an engineer might not have
about this particular field,

326
00:14:57,870 --> 00:15:01,080
going back to the question of
multidisciplinary great groups.

327
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,070
But I don't know to what
extent, for example,

328
00:15:03,070 --> 00:15:05,840
someone like me might be
accepted in maybe Lilly's lab.

329
00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,250
LILLY: One of the most
famous women in my field

330
00:15:08,250 --> 00:15:13,500
has an undergraduate
degree in German.

331
00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:14,840
So you never know.

332
00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:19,340
STUDENT: Lloyd Blankfein, the
CEO of J P Morgan, I think--

333
00:15:19,340 --> 00:15:20,490
his degree's in history.

334
00:15:20,490 --> 00:15:21,975
And he almost
barely didn't pass.

335
00:15:21,975 --> 00:15:23,350
He said he still
gets nightmares,

336
00:15:23,350 --> 00:15:26,965
because he didn't fulfill
all the requirements.

337
00:15:26,965 --> 00:15:28,590
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN:
All right, so we're

338
00:15:28,590 --> 00:15:31,410
going to move out of the testing
world back to the DARPA world.

339
00:15:31,410 --> 00:15:33,870
MAX: Sure.

340
00:15:33,870 --> 00:15:36,420
So one of the things
that Carleton pointed out

341
00:15:36,420 --> 00:15:42,510
was that as DARPA has aged, so,
too, have its project managers.

342
00:15:42,510 --> 00:15:46,710
Even though they cycle between
new managers every four or five

343
00:15:46,710 --> 00:15:50,820
years, the average age of the
managers that they would pick

344
00:15:50,820 --> 00:15:53,610
was going up steadily.

345
00:15:53,610 --> 00:15:55,200
So I'm curious if
anyone has thoughts

346
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:58,230
on what the effect of that would
be on their managerial ability,

347
00:15:58,230 --> 00:16:02,280
or on DARPA's
direction as a whole.

348
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,030
STUDENT: Could you
repeat that first part?

349
00:16:04,030 --> 00:16:04,530
MAX: Yeah.

350
00:16:04,530 --> 00:16:07,080
So the average age of
the project managers

351
00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:08,807
has been increasing,
as DARPA has--

352
00:16:08,807 --> 00:16:10,140
STUDENT: What's the average age?

353
00:16:10,140 --> 00:16:11,557
MAX: I don't
remember the numbers.

354
00:16:11,557 --> 00:16:12,680
STUDENT: Is it 27?

355
00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:14,240
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: No,
it's a lot older than that.

356
00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:15,323
STUDENT: It's a lot older?

357
00:16:15,323 --> 00:16:16,820
MAX: Yeah.

358
00:16:16,820 --> 00:16:20,180
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: One
of the reasons, Max,

359
00:16:20,180 --> 00:16:22,760
may be that it's--

360
00:16:26,230 --> 00:16:31,070
I mean, watching MIT, it's
very hard for younger faculty

361
00:16:31,070 --> 00:16:34,460
to walk out of the place
before they get tenure.

362
00:16:34,460 --> 00:16:37,430
It's hard enough to walk
out once you get tenure,

363
00:16:37,430 --> 00:16:41,330
but it's impossible to walk
out before you get tenure.

364
00:16:41,330 --> 00:16:43,710
And because you're
establishing a whole--

365
00:16:43,710 --> 00:16:46,730
your research portfolio and
your whole researching system,

366
00:16:46,730 --> 00:16:49,080
and it's very hard
to walk out of that.

367
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:52,835
In addition, when you go to
DARPA, you've got a conflict.

368
00:16:52,835 --> 00:16:54,710
Once you've worked there,
you have a conflict

369
00:16:54,710 --> 00:16:55,970
of interest with DARPA.

370
00:16:55,970 --> 00:16:57,428
You're not going
to be able to deal

371
00:16:57,428 --> 00:17:00,270
with the agency for a
certain period of time.

372
00:17:00,270 --> 00:17:02,478
So if they happen to be
funding your research before,

373
00:17:02,478 --> 00:17:05,062
they're not going to be able to
continue funding your research

374
00:17:05,062 --> 00:17:06,480
once you've worked there.

375
00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:08,480
So it's gotten more
complicated for DARPA

376
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:10,760
to recruit at the
university level.

377
00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:12,210
It's gotten a lot
more difficult.

378
00:17:12,210 --> 00:17:14,660
So the route between
MIT and DARPA,

379
00:17:14,660 --> 00:17:17,480
frankly, used to be a
lot easier to manage.

380
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:23,460
And when I look at my colleagues
here who have gone to DARPA,

381
00:17:23,460 --> 00:17:25,988
they are more typically
fairly far along,

382
00:17:25,988 --> 00:17:28,280
and very assured about their
career, and their research

383
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:29,530
foundation, and their writing.

384
00:17:29,530 --> 00:17:31,340
They've done that
stuff, and they

385
00:17:31,340 --> 00:17:33,890
can take a three
or five year break,

386
00:17:33,890 --> 00:17:36,830
and get that really
big, visionary thing

387
00:17:36,830 --> 00:17:39,800
that they've wanted to
work on forever done

388
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:40,730
when they go to DARPA.

389
00:17:40,730 --> 00:17:42,730
But it's harder when
you're trying to administer

390
00:17:42,730 --> 00:17:44,930
a whole research portfolio.

391
00:17:44,930 --> 00:17:47,230
Again, with the IPA
authority, you've

392
00:17:47,230 --> 00:17:49,760
got a certain freedom to come
back to your organization

393
00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:51,530
and keep the
day-to-day stuff going.

394
00:17:51,530 --> 00:17:53,240
But it's still not simple.

395
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:57,140
So that may be one
part of the reason

396
00:17:57,140 --> 00:18:00,170
that you tend to get somewhat
older faculty than they

397
00:18:00,170 --> 00:18:01,832
probably used to
at the beginning.

398
00:18:01,832 --> 00:18:03,838
STUDENT 1: Licklider
wasn't especially young

399
00:18:03,838 --> 00:18:04,880
when he was the director.

400
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:06,710
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN:
Right, he wasn't young.

401
00:18:06,710 --> 00:18:08,380
STUDENT 1: Or the
project manager.

402
00:18:08,380 --> 00:18:11,940
So I think age does affect the
perspective that you bring in.

403
00:18:11,940 --> 00:18:15,710
But having older people
isn't a bad thing.

404
00:18:15,710 --> 00:18:17,610
I think in the tech
world, it's seen

405
00:18:17,610 --> 00:18:20,590
as like if you're
not young and hip,

406
00:18:20,590 --> 00:18:23,440
you're going to be out of touch
with what's going to work.

407
00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:24,770
But I don't know if that's a--

408
00:18:24,770 --> 00:18:26,240
I think the points
that Bill made

409
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:28,598
about having to kind of
establish yourself and figure

410
00:18:28,598 --> 00:18:30,890
out what your vision is, you
have more time when you're

411
00:18:30,890 --> 00:18:33,730
older to have a vision.

412
00:18:33,730 --> 00:18:35,470
LILLY: Yeah, and
perspective as well.

413
00:18:35,470 --> 00:18:38,620
Just thinking about advisors
I've had over the years,

414
00:18:38,620 --> 00:18:41,800
and younger or newer
advisors versus more

415
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:43,570
established advisors--
they definitely

416
00:18:43,570 --> 00:18:47,810
have a different perspective.

417
00:18:47,810 --> 00:18:53,290
And yeah, NASA is actually
having the same phenomenon,

418
00:18:53,290 --> 00:18:57,690
with having directors who are
progressively older and older.

419
00:18:57,690 --> 00:19:00,360
So that's very
sim-- they can't--

420
00:19:00,360 --> 00:19:02,940
it's very difficult
to draw someone away

421
00:19:02,940 --> 00:19:06,210
from a mid-range career if
they're being very successful,

422
00:19:06,210 --> 00:19:07,780
and having success
getting grants.

423
00:19:07,780 --> 00:19:12,470
And it's hard to get them into
administration or directorships

424
00:19:12,470 --> 00:19:13,053
or management.

425
00:19:13,053 --> 00:19:14,470
STUDENT: What would
the difference

426
00:19:14,470 --> 00:19:16,125
between young and
older directors be?

427
00:19:20,780 --> 00:19:25,170
LILLY: In general, actually,
the more established and older

428
00:19:25,170 --> 00:19:28,710
advisors that I've had
have had a lot more

429
00:19:28,710 --> 00:19:35,409
perspicacity with respect to
what projects are worthwhile,

430
00:19:35,409 --> 00:19:39,467
actually, or--

431
00:19:39,467 --> 00:19:41,300
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN:
Through long experience,

432
00:19:41,300 --> 00:19:44,780
you're suggesting, because
they've seen a lot.

433
00:19:44,902 --> 00:19:46,610
LILLY: Yeah, that's
the impression I get.

434
00:19:46,610 --> 00:19:47,693
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Right.

435
00:19:49,630 --> 00:19:51,010
Next, how about
another question?

436
00:19:51,010 --> 00:19:51,728
MAX: Sure.

437
00:19:51,728 --> 00:19:52,664
All right.

438
00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:02,750
So Carleton
mentioned that DARPA,

439
00:20:02,750 --> 00:20:05,222
in order to save time
when they are trying

440
00:20:05,222 --> 00:20:06,680
to develop these
projects, they try

441
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:10,040
to discourage consensus, which
I didn't really see as a--

442
00:20:10,040 --> 00:20:13,050
I think it was the second,
the next slide you have.

443
00:20:13,050 --> 00:20:13,550
Yeah.

444
00:20:13,550 --> 00:20:17,362
So I understand
why, because then it

445
00:20:17,362 --> 00:20:19,320
ensures that whatever
you're trying to develop,

446
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:20,630
it gets done quickly.

447
00:20:20,630 --> 00:20:22,370
But just because it
gets done quickly

448
00:20:22,370 --> 00:20:24,410
doesn't really mean
that it gets done right.

449
00:20:24,410 --> 00:20:28,820
So I guess I was curious
what people thought on that,

450
00:20:28,820 --> 00:20:31,028
specifically that decision.

451
00:20:31,028 --> 00:20:33,320
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: It's a
very interesting point, Max.

452
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,750
And actually, ARPA-E--
and we'll talk about it

453
00:20:35,750 --> 00:20:38,770
when we get to ARPA-E
and the energy class,

454
00:20:38,770 --> 00:20:42,390
but ARPA-E does have a process.

455
00:20:42,390 --> 00:20:46,010
It's a much smaller agency, so
it's 300 million, not 3 billion

456
00:20:46,010 --> 00:20:47,120
like DARPA.

457
00:20:47,120 --> 00:20:52,370
So it's like a big DARPA
office, sizable DARPA office,

458
00:20:52,370 --> 00:20:54,290
one of its five or six offices.

459
00:20:54,290 --> 00:20:58,280
So ARPA-E does have
a consensus process.

460
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,730
They bring in-- they call
them "project directors"

461
00:21:01,730 --> 00:21:03,830
but they're program managers.

462
00:21:03,830 --> 00:21:05,660
And that community,
really, you have

463
00:21:05,660 --> 00:21:08,900
to present your vision
to that community.

464
00:21:08,900 --> 00:21:12,890
And that's a very tough-minded
group, and a very sophisticated

465
00:21:12,890 --> 00:21:13,700
group.

466
00:21:13,700 --> 00:21:17,150
And the director is quite
sophisticated at ARPA-E

467
00:21:17,150 --> 00:21:18,530
historically, as well.

468
00:21:18,530 --> 00:21:20,900
So they did a variation on this.

469
00:21:20,900 --> 00:21:24,680
At DARPA, it's much more,
convince your office director,

470
00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:27,950
and then the office
director will work with you

471
00:21:27,950 --> 00:21:29,660
on convincing the
director of DARPA.

472
00:21:29,660 --> 00:21:32,330
It's a simpler, more
straightforward process.

473
00:21:32,330 --> 00:21:33,980
You do get support
from other program

474
00:21:33,980 --> 00:21:36,870
managers, who will have a lot
of advice and ideas for you.

475
00:21:36,870 --> 00:21:39,813
So it's a pretty
supportive operation.

476
00:21:39,813 --> 00:21:41,480
Nobody's in competition
with each other.

477
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:42,855
They're there to
help each other,

478
00:21:42,855 --> 00:21:46,970
so that's a positive,
although again, they're

479
00:21:46,970 --> 00:21:48,530
competing to achieve
their vision.

480
00:21:48,530 --> 00:21:49,905
And everybody kind
of knows who's

481
00:21:49,905 --> 00:21:52,362
getting their vision
done, and kind of who is

482
00:21:52,362 --> 00:21:53,570
in trouble with their vision.

483
00:21:53,570 --> 00:21:55,640
So that's kind of
known and understood.

484
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,070
There's a certain kind of
competition in that way,

485
00:21:58,070 --> 00:22:01,860
but it's not a direct one-on-one
competition with each other.

486
00:22:01,860 --> 00:22:05,030
But at ARPA-E, there is more
of a consensus decision making.

487
00:22:05,030 --> 00:22:10,970
And Luyao when she was
telling us about Xerox PARC,

488
00:22:10,970 --> 00:22:15,140
remember, your whole discussion
about the dealer process

489
00:22:15,140 --> 00:22:18,440
and having to bring your idea
to the whole team sitting around

490
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,050
on beanbags, who
would tear it apart--

491
00:22:21,050 --> 00:22:24,590
that's kind of a
consensus process.

492
00:22:24,590 --> 00:22:27,740
It's a definite,
tough-minded review process

493
00:22:27,740 --> 00:22:30,087
that DARPA doesn't
really quite have.

494
00:22:30,087 --> 00:22:32,420
So there may be strengths and
weaknesses in both models.

495
00:22:37,668 --> 00:22:38,960
Max, what do you think on that?

496
00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:44,990
MAX: Yeah, I could see there'd
be strengths and weaknesses

497
00:22:44,990 --> 00:22:45,490
to both.

498
00:22:45,490 --> 00:22:54,083
But it just feels if you have
less consensus, than you have--

499
00:22:54,083 --> 00:22:55,750
if you have fewer
people that are trying

500
00:22:55,750 --> 00:22:57,640
to discuss these
ideas, then there

501
00:22:57,640 --> 00:22:59,960
might be some critical
flaw that you might not--

502
00:22:59,960 --> 00:23:02,502
that you might just miss, just
because there are fewer people

503
00:23:02,502 --> 00:23:06,670
with more diverse experiences.

504
00:23:06,670 --> 00:23:10,240
Of course, if you have a decent
idea of the science behind it,

505
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,220
and it's not
something as untested

506
00:23:12,220 --> 00:23:15,370
as fusion, for
example, then I could

507
00:23:15,370 --> 00:23:17,210
see it working pretty well.

508
00:23:17,210 --> 00:23:20,980
I mean, if you had
to do that for--

509
00:23:20,980 --> 00:23:24,220
I could see it having problems
with something untested

510
00:23:24,220 --> 00:23:25,630
like stealth.

511
00:23:25,630 --> 00:23:27,640
But apparently,
they made it work.

512
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:34,888
So maybe they're
passing my expectations.

513
00:23:34,888 --> 00:23:38,890
STUDENT: [INAUDIBLE]
Silicon Valley perspective,

514
00:23:38,890 --> 00:23:42,520
like it's a pretty
common mantra to say

515
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,980
you want to have an idea
that people kind of say

516
00:23:44,980 --> 00:23:46,690
is not a good idea.

517
00:23:46,690 --> 00:23:48,550
Because the idea is,
if you're coming up

518
00:23:48,550 --> 00:23:49,900
with something that's
pretty innovative,

519
00:23:49,900 --> 00:23:51,220
most likely people
won't agree with it,

520
00:23:51,220 --> 00:23:52,900
or it doesn't make sense,
or you have an insight

521
00:23:52,900 --> 00:23:54,245
that other people don't get.

522
00:23:54,245 --> 00:23:55,870
Also, if you're an
expert, you probably

523
00:23:55,870 --> 00:23:58,020
know some things that
other people don't know,

524
00:23:58,020 --> 00:24:00,687
that you'd have to bring them up
to speed on, especially if it's

525
00:24:00,687 --> 00:24:02,520
in a completely new area.

526
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,582
And so the history
has been, they're

527
00:24:05,582 --> 00:24:08,825
just saying that for new
fields, who is the expert?

528
00:24:08,825 --> 00:24:10,450
It wouldn't be a PhD,
because the field

529
00:24:10,450 --> 00:24:11,880
hasn't been invented yet.

530
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:15,360
It's this person who just
started working on it.

531
00:24:15,360 --> 00:24:20,100
So Bill Gates was an expert on
software for personal computers

532
00:24:20,100 --> 00:24:21,860
before that even became a thing.

533
00:24:21,860 --> 00:24:23,400
So it's very common
to-- consensus

534
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,940
is actually really bad, because
you put down these ideas based

535
00:24:26,940 --> 00:24:27,730
on new insights.

536
00:24:27,730 --> 00:24:28,230
So.

537
00:24:28,230 --> 00:24:30,240
LILLY: Yeah, and another
issue with consensus

538
00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:32,670
is you have to
assume, or you have

539
00:24:32,670 --> 00:24:37,800
to have a group in which all
members have the personality

540
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:43,380
type that they will concede
to someone else's idea

541
00:24:43,380 --> 00:24:45,620
to get consensus,
even if it's not

542
00:24:45,620 --> 00:24:47,415
their pet project
or their favorite.

543
00:24:47,415 --> 00:24:48,290
You know what I mean?

544
00:24:48,290 --> 00:24:50,978
Some people aren't disposed
to do that, no matter what.

545
00:24:53,935 --> 00:24:56,310
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: About a
closing thought on this, Max?

546
00:24:56,310 --> 00:24:57,460
MAX: Sure.

547
00:24:57,460 --> 00:25:01,600
So overall, I feel
that DARPA seems

548
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,890
to have been a
pretty great success.

549
00:25:03,890 --> 00:25:06,070
They've made lots of
really cool projects.

550
00:25:06,070 --> 00:25:08,170
They do it very quickly.

551
00:25:08,170 --> 00:25:12,550
Not sure how cheaply they
do it, but they get it done.

552
00:25:12,550 --> 00:25:14,500
And because of that
continued success,

553
00:25:14,500 --> 00:25:18,580
I feel that that's
probably why they continue

554
00:25:18,580 --> 00:25:21,250
to get so much funding.

555
00:25:21,250 --> 00:25:25,840
I really try to emphasize that
technology transfer aspect,

556
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:29,740
because it ensures that the
technology that they develop

557
00:25:29,740 --> 00:25:33,190
isn't just it's a nice, new
toy for the military to have.

558
00:25:33,190 --> 00:25:35,830
It ensures that whatever
they make, from the internet,

559
00:25:35,830 --> 00:25:38,990
GPS, et cetera, that
everyone can use it,

560
00:25:38,990 --> 00:25:42,310
and that it makes our
entire society better.

561
00:25:42,310 --> 00:25:48,890
So I guess that's pretty
much just why I like DARPA.

562
00:25:48,890 --> 00:25:50,150
WILLIAM BONVILLIAN: Great.

563
00:25:50,150 --> 00:25:53,500
There's a lot of MIT folks and
people saying, what do you do?

564
00:25:53,500 --> 00:25:58,180
All right, let me do a quick
wrap up of today's class.

565
00:25:58,180 --> 00:26:01,990
So we did Mitch Waldrop's book.

566
00:26:01,990 --> 00:26:04,210
And I really wanted
to kind of portray

567
00:26:04,210 --> 00:26:07,500
the governmental role in
supporting the earlier stage

568
00:26:07,500 --> 00:26:09,820
of the evolution of computing.

569
00:26:09,820 --> 00:26:13,420
It was a proving ground
for new concepts,

570
00:26:13,420 --> 00:26:17,200
and designs, and architectures.

571
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,270
The Defense Department
created an initial market

572
00:26:19,270 --> 00:26:21,440
for a lot of the new
products, and services,

573
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,070
and in fact, whole industries.

574
00:26:24,070 --> 00:26:27,580
This greatly expanded university
research capabilities,

575
00:26:27,580 --> 00:26:31,190
the computing revolution.

576
00:26:31,190 --> 00:26:36,920
And it was done to further
governmental missions.

577
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:40,950
But it had, obviously,
dramatic societal effects.

578
00:26:40,950 --> 00:26:43,910
So it featured
governmental agencies

579
00:26:43,910 --> 00:26:45,800
playing a pretty central role.

580
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,670
DARPA, as we discussed
was critical,

581
00:26:47,670 --> 00:26:51,230
but some of the others
were necessary and needed.

582
00:26:51,230 --> 00:26:53,300
And the governmental
agency sponsored

583
00:26:53,300 --> 00:26:56,990
these industry-university
collaborations

584
00:26:56,990 --> 00:27:00,050
that led to great strength
in the university side,

585
00:27:00,050 --> 00:27:02,330
and focus areas around them.

586
00:27:02,330 --> 00:27:07,990
So in the reading that
we did from the textbook,

587
00:27:07,990 --> 00:27:09,740
the central point
here was that DARPA

588
00:27:09,740 --> 00:27:14,600
was uniquely able to combine an
innovation institutional role,

589
00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:17,150
as well as a great
groups innovation

590
00:27:17,150 --> 00:27:21,470
at the face-to-face
level kind of role.

591
00:27:21,470 --> 00:27:22,940
That's a remarkable
accomplishment.

592
00:27:22,940 --> 00:27:28,370
And then DARPA's ability, as
we talked about in that reading

593
00:27:28,370 --> 00:27:34,070
as well, to innovate
in a legacy sector,

594
00:27:34,070 --> 00:27:37,610
to do a frontier sector
like IT, but also

595
00:27:37,610 --> 00:27:41,060
innovate within a legacy sector,
and do things like stealth,

596
00:27:41,060 --> 00:27:42,560
and UAVs--

597
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:46,670
that's a pretty
fascinating organization,

598
00:27:46,670 --> 00:27:48,920
that's flexible,
and interesting,

599
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:51,140
and able to do great stuff.

600
00:27:51,140 --> 00:27:53,450
Glenn Fong's piece
was really about DARPA

601
00:27:53,450 --> 00:27:55,820
playing the central
institutional mobilization

602
00:27:55,820 --> 00:27:58,340
role for the IT revolution.

603
00:27:58,340 --> 00:28:01,160
And Tammy Carleton's
piece really

604
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,070
told us about this kind
of central importance

605
00:28:04,070 --> 00:28:09,980
of technology visioning as a
key modus operandi, that DARPA

606
00:28:09,980 --> 00:28:11,712
been able to operate in.

607
00:28:11,712 --> 00:28:14,762
Any closing questions?

608
00:28:14,762 --> 00:28:16,220
Good luck with your
paper outlines.

609
00:28:16,220 --> 00:28:18,170
Let me know if you
have questions.

610
00:28:18,170 --> 00:28:20,950
And I look forward to
seeing you on Tuesday.