1 00:00:00,150 --> 00:00:02,550 The following content is provided under a Creative 2 00:00:02,550 --> 00:00:04,090 Commons license. 3 00:00:04,090 --> 00:00:06,390 Your support will help MIT OpenCourseWare 4 00:00:06,390 --> 00:00:10,780 continue to offer high-quality educational resources for free. 5 00:00:10,780 --> 00:00:13,380 To make a donation or view additional materials 6 00:00:13,380 --> 00:00:17,340 from hundreds of MIT courses, visit MIT OpenCourseWare 7 00:00:17,340 --> 00:00:18,510 at ocw.mit.edu. 8 00:00:21,584 --> 00:00:23,000 WILL MA: I guess I'll get started. 9 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:24,980 So all right, cool. 10 00:00:24,980 --> 00:00:26,500 OK, so before I get into any hands, 11 00:00:26,500 --> 00:00:28,020 I wanted to-- this is really loud. 12 00:00:31,976 --> 00:00:33,350 Before I get to any hands, I want 13 00:00:33,350 --> 00:00:36,550 to talk about tournaments versus cash games 14 00:00:36,550 --> 00:00:39,250 since I haven't really made the distinction yet. 15 00:00:39,250 --> 00:00:41,419 So essentially-- so this is a big chart 16 00:00:41,419 --> 00:00:42,460 with all the differences. 17 00:00:42,460 --> 00:00:45,500 So when you guys play in the things online, 18 00:00:45,500 --> 00:00:46,840 those are called tournaments. 19 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:49,750 So in the tournament, you sort of buy-in for a fixed 20 00:00:49,750 --> 00:00:51,310 amount of play chips. 21 00:00:51,310 --> 00:00:52,700 case, it's not that relevant. 22 00:00:52,700 --> 00:00:54,400 It's like one play dollar. 23 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:59,650 And then you get, for coming in the top 20% a round, 24 00:00:59,650 --> 00:01:02,890 you're going to get some amount of play chips paid out to you. 25 00:01:02,890 --> 00:01:05,630 And like, if you win, you get the most. 26 00:01:05,630 --> 00:01:07,420 And if you just barely make it, you'll 27 00:01:07,420 --> 00:01:09,230 probably make back like two play chips. 28 00:01:09,230 --> 00:01:11,140 So you'll profit one play chip or something. 29 00:01:11,140 --> 00:01:12,431 So that's how tournaments work. 30 00:01:12,431 --> 00:01:15,590 And that's sort of what, throughout this class so far, 31 00:01:15,590 --> 00:01:18,970 I sort of assumed all the hands are taken from tournaments. 32 00:01:18,970 --> 00:01:20,720 So there is a different way to play poker. 33 00:01:20,720 --> 00:01:22,240 And a lot of you might have actually 34 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:24,490 been introduced to poker like this-- 35 00:01:24,490 --> 00:01:26,237 so, you have like sort of a home game, 36 00:01:26,237 --> 00:01:27,820 where there's just a bunch of friends, 37 00:01:27,820 --> 00:01:29,236 you're playing at someone's house. 38 00:01:29,236 --> 00:01:32,680 And you all buy in for some amount of play chips. 39 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:35,560 And basically, you can play, and people 40 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:38,220 can join the stock any time. 41 00:01:38,220 --> 00:01:42,670 If you lose all your play chips, you can just buy in for more. 42 00:01:42,670 --> 00:01:44,670 It's not like tournaments where once you're out, 43 00:01:44,670 --> 00:01:45,420 you're eliminated. 44 00:01:45,420 --> 00:01:47,860 And you can never go back into that tournament 45 00:01:47,860 --> 00:01:50,380 and cash in to go buy in whenever. 46 00:01:50,380 --> 00:01:51,550 You can hit and run people. 47 00:01:51,550 --> 00:01:53,200 You can come try to make a bit of money 48 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:56,320 and then just leave as soon as you make a bit. 49 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:57,850 So what are the main differences? 50 00:01:57,850 --> 00:02:00,183 So I wanted to highlight the differences between the two 51 00:02:00,183 --> 00:02:03,457 types of games and talk about why we mostly choose students 52 00:02:03,457 --> 00:02:04,540 tournaments in this class. 53 00:02:04,540 --> 00:02:08,889 So everyone knows the definition of what a tournament is, 54 00:02:08,889 --> 00:02:10,870 what a cash game is. 55 00:02:10,870 --> 00:02:14,580 So let me talk a bit more about, what are some differences? 56 00:02:14,580 --> 00:02:19,190 In cash games, usually, the stakes are fixed. 57 00:02:19,190 --> 00:02:24,047 So usually, it will say we're playing for like one play 58 00:02:24,047 --> 00:02:25,630 dollar, two play dollars, or something 59 00:02:25,630 --> 00:02:27,700 like that, whereas in tournaments, I'm 60 00:02:27,700 --> 00:02:30,520 sure as you've noticed, the blinds keep going up. 61 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,660 The blinds start 10/20 in your tournaments. 62 00:02:33,660 --> 00:02:37,992 And then they become 20/40, and then like 40/80, or 30/60. 63 00:02:37,992 --> 00:02:39,700 Actually, there's a 15/30 level, I think. 64 00:02:39,700 --> 00:02:42,750 So it's 15/30 and 20/40, and then 25/50. 65 00:02:42,750 --> 00:02:45,172 And it keeps going up. 66 00:02:45,172 --> 00:02:47,380 and the reason this is the case is so that eventually 67 00:02:47,380 --> 00:02:49,671 the tournament ends, because if the blinds don't go up, 68 00:02:49,671 --> 00:02:52,290 the tournament will take forever to end. 69 00:02:52,290 --> 00:02:55,100 So what's a big factor about tournaments versus cash games? 70 00:02:55,100 --> 00:02:58,100 In tournaments, you have no control over your table. 71 00:02:58,100 --> 00:03:00,820 You just join in the tournament, and you're put at some table, 72 00:03:00,820 --> 00:03:03,550 and you've got to do your best at the table you're placed at. 73 00:03:03,550 --> 00:03:06,340 And the fact that there's not this much metagame, 74 00:03:06,340 --> 00:03:08,980 I think is one of the reasons it's much easier to analyze 75 00:03:08,980 --> 00:03:11,125 poker hands in terms of tournaments, 76 00:03:11,125 --> 00:03:13,795 because in cash games, if you're at the cash game, 77 00:03:13,795 --> 00:03:16,270 and everyone's really, really good, you could just choose, 78 00:03:16,270 --> 00:03:17,800 I don't want to play in this cash game anymore. 79 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:18,860 I'm just losing my money. 80 00:03:18,860 --> 00:03:20,930 And you could choose to stand up and leave. 81 00:03:20,930 --> 00:03:23,830 And there's a lot of decisions of this form. 82 00:03:23,830 --> 00:03:27,760 So there is more metagame required. 83 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,050 And in tournaments, the general goal is to survive. 84 00:03:31,050 --> 00:03:33,640 You're just trying to get eliminated as late as possible 85 00:03:33,640 --> 00:03:37,030 to maximize your payout, whereas in cash games, a lot of it 86 00:03:37,030 --> 00:03:39,520 comes down to, if there's one bad player at the table, 87 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,404 you're trying to target that specific player. 88 00:03:41,404 --> 00:03:42,820 You're trying to do everything you 89 00:03:42,820 --> 00:03:45,070 can to get in hands against that player, 90 00:03:45,070 --> 00:03:47,620 and exploit them, and win a lot of money against them, 91 00:03:47,620 --> 00:03:49,170 and risk a lot and stuff like that. 92 00:03:52,370 --> 00:03:54,810 There's less focus on the math of poker and more focus 93 00:03:54,810 --> 00:03:58,360 on specifically targeting certain players. 94 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,114 Tournaments-- there's frequent but fixed losses. 95 00:04:01,114 --> 00:04:02,530 So if you were playing tournaments 96 00:04:02,530 --> 00:04:05,950 for real money, how it works is most of the time, 97 00:04:05,950 --> 00:04:08,980 like 80% of players don't get paid anything back 98 00:04:08,980 --> 00:04:09,940 from the tournament. 99 00:04:09,940 --> 00:04:11,870 So when you play tournaments most of the time, 100 00:04:11,870 --> 00:04:13,490 you're going to lose, even if you're really good. 101 00:04:13,490 --> 00:04:15,830 You're not going to win more than 50% of the time. 102 00:04:15,830 --> 00:04:18,220 So you're going to lose, lose, lose, lose lose. 103 00:04:18,220 --> 00:04:20,670 And then you're going to get a big win and then win a lot. 104 00:04:20,670 --> 00:04:22,570 And then it's going to be lose, lose, lose, lose, 105 00:04:22,570 --> 00:04:23,820 and you're going to win a lot. 106 00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:27,700 Sort of like playing the lottery, whereas cash games, 107 00:04:27,700 --> 00:04:28,560 anything can happen. 108 00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:29,351 You can lose a lot. 109 00:04:29,351 --> 00:04:31,920 If you are having a bad day and you decide not to quit, 110 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,790 you could lose all your money, buy back in, 111 00:04:33,790 --> 00:04:35,445 lose all your money, by back in, eventually, 112 00:04:35,445 --> 00:04:37,111 lose all the money in your bank account. 113 00:04:37,111 --> 00:04:38,410 That could happen. 114 00:04:38,410 --> 00:04:39,580 You could also win a lot. 115 00:04:39,580 --> 00:04:41,770 So anything can happen. 116 00:04:41,770 --> 00:04:44,890 But in some sense, tournaments is more variance. 117 00:04:44,890 --> 00:04:47,580 So like when I was talking in the first class about the law 118 00:04:47,580 --> 00:04:50,740 of large numbers and reaching the long run, it does, overall, 119 00:04:50,740 --> 00:04:55,000 in some sense, take longer if you're playing tournaments, 120 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,690 because in tournaments, you do need to occasionally get 121 00:04:58,690 --> 00:05:00,610 the big score in the tournament-- 122 00:05:00,610 --> 00:05:02,640 it's sort of like winning the lottery-- 123 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:04,870 to make back all your money. 124 00:05:04,870 --> 00:05:08,510 And if you don't, then you won't make back all your money. 125 00:05:08,510 --> 00:05:10,830 I argue that tournaments, I think, are more fun. 126 00:05:10,830 --> 00:05:11,812 They're more exciting. 127 00:05:11,812 --> 00:05:13,270 If you make it far in a tournament, 128 00:05:13,270 --> 00:05:15,144 eventually, it comes down to just two of you. 129 00:05:15,144 --> 00:05:16,660 It's pretty exciting. 130 00:05:16,660 --> 00:05:19,810 Also, tournaments have a wider range of situations. 131 00:05:19,810 --> 00:05:23,530 So in cash games, usually, it'll be a fixed number 132 00:05:23,530 --> 00:05:25,000 of players at the table. 133 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,460 And players will have a similar number of big blinds, 134 00:05:27,460 --> 00:05:30,490 because whenever you lose a bunch of big blinds, 135 00:05:30,490 --> 00:05:33,570 you can always buy back in and get those big blinds back 136 00:05:33,570 --> 00:05:35,185 by putting more money on the table, 137 00:05:35,185 --> 00:05:37,560 whereas in tournaments, we have to learn how to handle I, 138 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,320 think interesting, mathematical situations where 139 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:41,700 you have one big blind. 140 00:05:41,700 --> 00:05:43,140 How do I play it optimally? 141 00:05:43,140 --> 00:05:45,520 And stuff like that. 142 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,430 The last thing is if you play at a casino, 143 00:05:47,430 --> 00:05:49,680 another good thing about tournaments is relatively, 144 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,890 the casino makes a lot less from tournaments and cash games. 145 00:05:52,890 --> 00:05:57,090 Cash games, just as a fraction of how much money you wager, 146 00:05:57,090 --> 00:05:59,790 the casino takes way more compared to tournaments. 147 00:05:59,790 --> 00:06:04,270 Tournaments-- what the with the house takes is very small. 148 00:06:04,270 --> 00:06:06,510 OK so those are the main differences. 149 00:06:06,510 --> 00:06:09,270 But I did want to comprehensively 150 00:06:09,270 --> 00:06:12,240 go through the differences, because if you 151 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:14,880 do decide to play poker, these are essentially 152 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:15,880 the two ways to play it. 153 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:17,520 So I wanted to make sure everyone is 154 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:21,880 well aware of the differences. 155 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,900 So yeah, so why I chose tournaments for the class-- 156 00:06:24,900 --> 00:06:26,430 I think there's less metagame. 157 00:06:26,430 --> 00:06:27,810 I think it's more exciting. 158 00:06:27,810 --> 00:06:29,490 I'm mostly a tournament player, myself, 159 00:06:29,490 --> 00:06:33,030 although I have played cash games for extended periods 160 00:06:33,030 --> 00:06:34,800 during my career. 161 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:36,695 Yeah, there's a wider range of scenarios. 162 00:06:36,695 --> 00:06:38,070 And I think it's more applicable. 163 00:06:38,070 --> 00:06:41,780 I think the MIT Poker Club-- 164 00:06:41,780 --> 00:06:43,800 the event they're running in January 165 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:47,420 is a tournament, because tournaments are exciting. 166 00:06:47,420 --> 00:06:49,710 OK, so are there any questions about this chart? 167 00:06:52,510 --> 00:06:54,100 OK, cool. 168 00:06:54,100 --> 00:06:55,710 Yeah, our club actually has both-- 169 00:06:55,710 --> 00:06:58,160 I mean the points-only tournaments count. 170 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:02,850 But if you look at this thing above, then actually, 171 00:07:02,850 --> 00:07:03,710 the pen works now. 172 00:07:03,710 --> 00:07:05,560 I don't have to draw in here. 173 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:06,710 OK. 174 00:07:06,710 --> 00:07:09,200 If you look there, then these are the cash tables. 175 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:11,240 And you could, in theory, sit down there 176 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:12,590 and play for play money. 177 00:07:12,590 --> 00:07:16,250 And if you do lose all your play money in those cash tables 178 00:07:16,250 --> 00:07:18,812 to a shark in the class, and you have no more play money, 179 00:07:18,812 --> 00:07:20,270 and you can't join tournaments, you 180 00:07:20,270 --> 00:07:22,785 can always refill your play money and join the tournaments. 181 00:07:22,785 --> 00:07:24,410 So that's why it's called "play money". 182 00:07:28,030 --> 00:07:29,720 Only tournaments count for standings. 183 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:35,130 And if you want to see the standings, you have to-- 184 00:07:35,130 --> 00:07:36,000 oh, I see. 185 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,390 They annotate. 186 00:07:38,390 --> 00:07:41,042 So you see that you've got to click the blue arrow, 187 00:07:41,042 --> 00:07:42,500 and then you can see the standings. 188 00:07:42,500 --> 00:07:43,560 Some people ask me about this. 189 00:07:43,560 --> 00:07:45,768 So if you want to see your standings, how many points 190 00:07:45,768 --> 00:07:48,500 everyone has, how many points you have, you can click that. 191 00:07:48,500 --> 00:07:50,330 You can click there. 192 00:07:50,330 --> 00:07:53,774 OK, let's get into some poker hands now. 193 00:07:53,774 --> 00:07:55,940 That being said, I highlighted all these differences 194 00:07:55,940 --> 00:07:57,875 about cash games and tournaments. 195 00:07:57,875 --> 00:08:00,285 But good poker is essentially good poker. 196 00:08:00,285 --> 00:08:02,660 If you're good at one, you're probably good at the other. 197 00:08:02,660 --> 00:08:05,340 The difference is still rather small. 198 00:08:05,340 --> 00:08:08,614 It's more based on, how much risk do I want to take? 199 00:08:08,614 --> 00:08:10,280 What kind of schedule do I want to play? 200 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:13,460 And that determines which one you choose to play rather than, 201 00:08:13,460 --> 00:08:15,770 am I better at tournaments or cash games? 202 00:08:15,770 --> 00:08:17,360 At least once yours-- 203 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,090 except at the very top levels, there there really 204 00:08:20,090 --> 00:08:21,380 is no difference between-- 205 00:08:21,380 --> 00:08:24,030 there's no such thing as a cash game specialist, 206 00:08:24,030 --> 00:08:28,030 except at the very, very top where it's possible 207 00:08:28,030 --> 00:08:32,199 the best cash game players are good at cash games compared 208 00:08:32,199 --> 00:08:33,490 to the best tournament players. 209 00:08:33,490 --> 00:08:35,865 But when you're just starting out, if you're good at one, 210 00:08:35,865 --> 00:08:37,904 you're good at the other, essentially. 211 00:08:37,904 --> 00:08:38,570 All right, cool. 212 00:08:38,570 --> 00:08:42,770 So today, I'm going to talk about some preflop play. 213 00:08:42,770 --> 00:08:44,990 Last class, I focused on post-flop flight. 214 00:08:44,990 --> 00:08:47,150 The first class, I talked a bit about what hands 215 00:08:47,150 --> 00:08:49,640 you should open with preflop But I didn't really 216 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:51,890 say that much about playing preflop. 217 00:08:51,890 --> 00:08:54,980 But it's of the most important parts of the hand, 218 00:08:54,980 --> 00:08:58,250 because it determines what cards are playing 219 00:08:58,250 --> 00:08:59,720 for the rest of the hands. 220 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:04,222 So first of all, I wanted to run through some numbers. 221 00:09:04,222 --> 00:09:05,680 It's good to have a sense of these. 222 00:09:05,680 --> 00:09:07,370 You don't have to memorize all of these. 223 00:09:07,370 --> 00:09:10,090 But it's good to have a reasonable idea of equities, 224 00:09:10,090 --> 00:09:13,730 of specific hands versus specific hands, when you get it 225 00:09:13,730 --> 00:09:15,880 all in preflop. 226 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,290 And I've classified this to make this 227 00:09:18,290 --> 00:09:20,240 roughly easier to memorize. 228 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:25,250 So the first example, which is sort of the dream situation, 229 00:09:25,250 --> 00:09:28,070 is you have a bigger pair against a smaller pair. 230 00:09:28,070 --> 00:09:29,960 What's the best situation that you 231 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,107 can be given preflop in poker? 232 00:09:32,107 --> 00:09:33,690 So, what's the best hand you can have? 233 00:09:33,690 --> 00:09:34,536 It's aces, right? 234 00:09:34,536 --> 00:09:36,410 But you don't want aces and for everyone else 235 00:09:36,410 --> 00:09:39,260 to have 3/2 offsuit, because they're just going to fold. 236 00:09:39,260 --> 00:09:42,980 So you want aces, and you want someone else to have kings. 237 00:09:42,980 --> 00:09:45,320 One of my screen names is actually, please 238 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,780 give me ace ace against king king or something, 239 00:09:47,780 --> 00:09:50,930 on a site, because it really is the best situation you can hope 240 00:09:50,930 --> 00:09:52,350 for, because they're going to put 241 00:09:52,350 --> 00:09:53,600 all their money in with kings. 242 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,210 And so roughly, when you have a bigger pair against a smaller 243 00:09:56,210 --> 00:09:58,810 pair, your an 80/20 favorite. 244 00:09:58,810 --> 00:10:02,690 So you win 4/5 of the time. 245 00:10:02,690 --> 00:10:07,190 And the edge dwindles a bit as you get to like, 33 versus 22, 246 00:10:07,190 --> 00:10:09,200 because there's a higher chance both pairs will 247 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:10,040 be counterfeited. 248 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:14,090 Like the board can come 66 77 8 or something. 249 00:10:14,090 --> 00:10:17,360 And then pocket threes ties pocket deuces. 250 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,210 And an equally good situation is one pair 251 00:10:20,210 --> 00:10:21,870 against zero overcards. 252 00:10:21,870 --> 00:10:23,600 So ace ace against ace king off it's 253 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:24,920 also a very good situation. 254 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:29,240 You're actually 93% there, because you dominate their ace. 255 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,360 So there's very few ways for them to win. 256 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,370 Pocket aces against 6-5 suited-- 257 00:10:34,370 --> 00:10:36,020 this is actually the hand that's best 258 00:10:36,020 --> 00:10:39,180 against aces, other than aces itself, is 6-5 suited. 259 00:10:39,180 --> 00:10:42,500 And aces is only 77.5%. 260 00:10:42,500 --> 00:10:45,840 But it's still ludicrous. 261 00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,700 So pocket jacks against 10-9 suited, 81.7%-- 262 00:10:48,700 --> 00:10:49,970 so, some rough numbers. 263 00:10:49,970 --> 00:10:51,530 10-9 suited is pretty good. 264 00:10:51,530 --> 00:10:55,520 But pocket jacks crushes it because having two jacks blocks 265 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,410 a lot of their straight-outs. 266 00:10:57,410 --> 00:10:59,630 Pocket queens against 7-4 is very good, 267 00:10:59,630 --> 00:11:02,330 because 7-4 off is not suited, not connected. 268 00:11:02,330 --> 00:11:05,210 And the best you can do preflop is actually 269 00:11:05,210 --> 00:11:08,430 king king versus king two off. 270 00:11:08,430 --> 00:11:10,940 If you have pocket kings against king deuce off, 271 00:11:10,940 --> 00:11:13,700 I think that's the highest equity you can possibly 272 00:11:13,700 --> 00:11:17,720 get in preflop is 94.6%. 273 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,710 And pocket kings against king two suited is 89 points. 274 00:11:21,710 --> 00:11:23,540 So look how much better king two suited 275 00:11:23,540 --> 00:11:26,740 does than king two off against king king. 276 00:11:26,740 --> 00:11:30,470 The fact it's easier to make a flush is so relevant. 277 00:11:30,470 --> 00:11:33,380 We'll talk more about this later. 278 00:11:33,380 --> 00:11:37,689 OK, the next few categories-- so a pair against one overcard. 279 00:11:37,689 --> 00:11:39,980 So you're still a favorite, but less big of a favorite. 280 00:11:39,980 --> 00:11:42,450 Instead of an 80/20, you're a 70/30. 281 00:11:42,450 --> 00:11:47,330 So queen queen against ace jack off is 71.7%. 282 00:11:47,330 --> 00:11:51,350 Queen queen against ace jack suited is a bit worse. 283 00:11:51,350 --> 00:11:53,540 Queen queen against ace queen suited 284 00:11:53,540 --> 00:11:56,420 is actually much worse than queen queen against ace jack 285 00:11:56,420 --> 00:11:57,230 suited. 286 00:11:57,230 --> 00:12:01,270 I think this is a bit counterintuitive, because with, 287 00:12:01,270 --> 00:12:03,170 against ace jack suited, I always 288 00:12:03,170 --> 00:12:04,490 thought they have more outs. 289 00:12:04,490 --> 00:12:06,470 They can hit three jacks. 290 00:12:06,470 --> 00:12:08,390 But it actually turns out, the fact 291 00:12:08,390 --> 00:12:10,670 that they have a queen to prevent you 292 00:12:10,670 --> 00:12:13,190 from hitting three of a kind in the situation 293 00:12:13,190 --> 00:12:15,920 they've already had an ace, is actually a lot more relevant. 294 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:21,500 So queens is much worse against ace queen than is jack. 295 00:12:21,500 --> 00:12:23,690 And pocket eights against ace two off-- 296 00:12:23,690 --> 00:12:26,550 70.2%. 297 00:12:26,550 --> 00:12:28,172 Pocket threes against ace two off 298 00:12:28,172 --> 00:12:29,630 is a bit worse, because once again, 299 00:12:29,630 --> 00:12:31,160 small pairs can get counterfeited 300 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,040 when you all-in preflop. 301 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,200 OK, a similarly good situation, which is the 70/30, 302 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,610 is when you are, quote, "dominating" the other person. 303 00:12:38,610 --> 00:12:41,137 So "dominating" means one of your cards is the same. 304 00:12:41,137 --> 00:12:42,470 But the other card is different. 305 00:12:42,470 --> 00:12:44,390 And yours is higher. 306 00:12:44,390 --> 00:12:47,412 OK, so ace king off against ace queen suited-- 307 00:12:47,412 --> 00:12:49,120 pretty good situation to get it in poker. 308 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:51,210 You're at 70%. 309 00:12:51,210 --> 00:12:54,305 If you are suited, and they are not, then you're 75%. 310 00:12:54,305 --> 00:12:58,140 If neither of you are suited, it's 74%. 311 00:12:58,140 --> 00:13:01,410 Yeah, ace king off versus king queen off. 312 00:13:01,410 --> 00:13:04,360 You're actually a bit better. 313 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:08,270 So, ace king off against ace queen off, you're at 74.4%. 314 00:13:08,270 --> 00:13:12,320 Ace king off is king queen off, you're 74.8%. 315 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:15,260 And you're a bit better, because it's harder 316 00:13:15,260 --> 00:13:16,274 to tie with the ace. 317 00:13:16,274 --> 00:13:17,690 So when you both have an ace, it's 318 00:13:17,690 --> 00:13:21,490 possible the board will come with two pairs, so like 6, 319 00:13:21,490 --> 00:13:22,880 6, 7, 7, 8. 320 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:26,270 And then both of you will have two pairs of sixes and sevens 321 00:13:26,270 --> 00:13:27,380 with the ace kicker. 322 00:13:27,380 --> 00:13:29,960 But that's less likely to happen if they don't have-- 323 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,840 like if your bottom card is their top card instead 324 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,560 of your top card being their top card-- 325 00:13:36,560 --> 00:13:39,590 One thing to keep in mind is ace five off against ace two off 326 00:13:39,590 --> 00:13:41,270 is barely a favorite at all. 327 00:13:41,270 --> 00:13:46,790 So it's nowhere near as good as ace queen off against jack off. 328 00:13:46,790 --> 00:13:49,120 Anyone have any idea why that is? 329 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:50,370 Is it draw? 330 00:13:50,370 --> 00:13:50,870 Right. 331 00:13:50,870 --> 00:13:51,411 Exactly, yes. 332 00:13:51,411 --> 00:13:54,210 So the five and two are going to get counterfeited. 333 00:13:54,210 --> 00:13:56,810 The five kicker is going to get counterfeited a lot more 334 00:13:56,810 --> 00:14:00,260 often, because if four cards on the board come, 335 00:14:00,260 --> 00:14:01,580 that's higher than five. 336 00:14:01,580 --> 00:14:03,220 The five is going to be irrelevant. 337 00:14:03,220 --> 00:14:07,537 So that's a good thing to remember. 338 00:14:07,537 --> 00:14:08,870 Let's look at some more numbers. 339 00:14:08,870 --> 00:14:11,430 This is one thing that I've always thought is really cool. 340 00:14:11,430 --> 00:14:14,150 Two overcards versus a pair is actually 341 00:14:14,150 --> 00:14:17,490 very close to a 50/50 for the most part. 342 00:14:17,490 --> 00:14:20,752 Ace king suited against pocket twos it's 49.9%. 343 00:14:20,752 --> 00:14:22,460 I actually showed you in the first class, 344 00:14:22,460 --> 00:14:25,520 if they don't have a two of your suit, 345 00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,070 then it's actually like 50.1%. 346 00:14:28,070 --> 00:14:35,240 So ace king off versus pocket twos is 47.4%. 347 00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:38,730 Note that 10/9 suited against pocket twos 348 00:14:38,730 --> 00:14:41,930 is actually a 54% favorite. 349 00:14:41,930 --> 00:14:44,840 It's much better than ace king against pocket twos, 350 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,960 because 10/9 can make a lot more straights and flushes. 351 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,840 And the fact that you're making a pair of tens instead 352 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,830 of a pair of aces, is irrelevant when 353 00:14:54,830 --> 00:14:58,070 the thing you're trying to beat is a pair of deuces. 354 00:14:58,070 --> 00:15:01,095 Ace king off versus pocket queen is only 43%. 355 00:15:01,095 --> 00:15:02,720 Even though people call it a coin flip, 356 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:04,670 it's actually much worse than a coin flip. 357 00:15:04,670 --> 00:15:09,090 So yeah, this is actually one of the first things that drew me 358 00:15:09,090 --> 00:15:09,590 to Hold'em. 359 00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:11,810 When I found this out, I was curious. 360 00:15:11,810 --> 00:15:13,900 I was wondering, the person who invented the rules 361 00:15:13,900 --> 00:15:16,670 of Hold'em, did they invent it so that this is a 50/50? 362 00:15:16,670 --> 00:15:19,670 Or was it just by coincidence that is [INAUDIBLE] 50/50? 363 00:15:19,670 --> 00:15:23,800 But I think it's very cool that it turns out to be a 50/50. 364 00:15:26,710 --> 00:15:28,080 OK, so the last cases-- 365 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:31,010 there's some weird cases where all four cards are different. 366 00:15:31,010 --> 00:15:34,490 Roughly speaking, when all four cards are different, 367 00:15:34,490 --> 00:15:37,234 the guy with the highest card is going to be a 60/40. 368 00:15:37,234 --> 00:15:38,900 I mean, this is very rough, because it's 369 00:15:38,900 --> 00:15:42,290 hard to encompass all the different types of scenarios 370 00:15:42,290 --> 00:15:43,820 under the same umbrella. 371 00:15:43,820 --> 00:15:48,320 But the thing that matters is having the highest card. 372 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:49,220 So let's see. 373 00:15:49,220 --> 00:15:52,620 So AB versus CD, which means you have two cards 374 00:15:52,620 --> 00:15:54,410 above their two cards. 375 00:15:54,410 --> 00:15:57,080 You can be as good as 67.7% if it's 376 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,660 like ace king off versus queen seven off, 377 00:15:59,660 --> 00:16:01,970 because queen seven off has no straight-outs 378 00:16:01,970 --> 00:16:04,490 and no flush-outs. 379 00:16:04,490 --> 00:16:08,960 AC versus BD, it's about 60 versus 40. 380 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,180 AD versus BC, it can be as low as 50/50. 381 00:16:12,180 --> 00:16:15,920 So ace two off against 10-9 suited is only 51.6%. 382 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:23,830 So that's sort of the worse case for AD versus BC. 383 00:16:23,830 --> 00:16:26,080 You can look through those numbers more on the slides. 384 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:29,770 And you can also get it yourself on PokerStove. 385 00:16:29,770 --> 00:16:31,979 Or a lot of websites, you can compute the equities 386 00:16:31,979 --> 00:16:33,020 of a hand versus another. 387 00:16:33,020 --> 00:16:35,810 But it's good to have some rough ideas of these categories. 388 00:16:35,810 --> 00:16:37,220 When is it an 80/20? 389 00:16:37,220 --> 00:16:38,870 When am I a [? four to one ?] favorite? 390 00:16:38,870 --> 00:16:40,910 When am I a 70/30 favorite? 391 00:16:40,910 --> 00:16:42,080 When am I a 50/50? 392 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:43,900 When am I a 60/40? 393 00:16:43,900 --> 00:16:47,810 OK, so one thing that I hope you sort of got from these numbers 394 00:16:47,810 --> 00:16:51,320 is that suitness matters a lot when you're behind, 395 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:53,520 and matters not that much when you're ahead. 396 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,870 So if you look at these numbers, the gain in equity 397 00:16:56,870 --> 00:16:58,641 of ace king suited when-- 398 00:16:58,641 --> 00:16:59,140 sorry. 399 00:16:59,140 --> 00:17:02,040 The gain of equity of ace king when ace king is suited, 400 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:03,420 is only 1%. 401 00:17:03,420 --> 00:17:08,339 You only increase your equity from 74.4 to 75.4. 402 00:17:08,339 --> 00:17:12,480 But if ace queen is suited, then the equity of ace king 403 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,690 drops by 4% instead of 1%. 404 00:17:15,690 --> 00:17:18,530 And the reason, essentially, is if your hand is bad, 405 00:17:18,530 --> 00:17:21,180 you need as many ways as possible to try to get lucky. 406 00:17:21,180 --> 00:17:23,349 And being suited is one of them. 407 00:17:23,349 --> 00:17:25,470 But if your hand is already very good, 408 00:17:25,470 --> 00:17:27,960 you just really need your opponent to not get lucky. 409 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:29,730 And you being suited is only going 410 00:17:29,730 --> 00:17:33,540 to be relevant if they first hit a pair to beat you. 411 00:17:33,540 --> 00:17:36,670 And then you need to hit a flush to beat them. 412 00:17:36,670 --> 00:17:38,312 So that's one thing to keep in mind. 413 00:17:38,312 --> 00:17:39,853 So like with ace king, the difference 414 00:17:39,853 --> 00:17:42,500 of being suited and unsuited doesn't matter that much. 415 00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:45,320 But with a hand like 9-8, being suited 416 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,850 is way better than being not suited. 417 00:17:47,850 --> 00:17:50,372 And shrewdness is also important for implied odds, 418 00:17:50,372 --> 00:17:52,080 as I talked about last class, because you 419 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,530 can make much better decisions post-flop if your hand is 420 00:17:54,530 --> 00:17:55,030 suited. 421 00:17:59,370 --> 00:18:03,960 So that's roughly some hand [? equities ?] to remember. 422 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,080 Now, we're going to talk about some preflop all-ins, 423 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,530 so going all-in preflop. 424 00:18:10,530 --> 00:18:11,880 OK so this class-- 425 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:15,210 most of this class, this is going to be a bit boring maybe. 426 00:18:15,210 --> 00:18:17,430 These are not really highlight reel plays. 427 00:18:17,430 --> 00:18:21,270 And this is about routine, making good decisions 428 00:18:21,270 --> 00:18:24,690 that increase your preflop equity by a couple percent that 429 00:18:24,690 --> 00:18:25,200 will-- 430 00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,630 but it's really these boring decisions, I think, 431 00:18:27,630 --> 00:18:30,750 that make you win right, not the occasional brilliant thing 432 00:18:30,750 --> 00:18:31,980 that you see on TV. 433 00:18:31,980 --> 00:18:34,680 So if your goal is to get on TV, then studying this 434 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:35,490 is maybe pointless. 435 00:18:35,490 --> 00:18:39,030 But if your goal is to make expectancy, win money, 436 00:18:39,030 --> 00:18:42,690 essentially, then it's really the simple, boring decisions 437 00:18:42,690 --> 00:18:46,495 that affect whether you win, not the one-time crazy bluff 438 00:18:46,495 --> 00:18:48,870 you pulled off against Phil Ivey that makes you a winner. 439 00:18:51,540 --> 00:18:52,760 Let's talk about this a bit. 440 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:56,040 So the main thing is, don't be afraid to go all in preflop. 441 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:57,510 I didn't really stress this yet. 442 00:18:57,510 --> 00:19:00,090 But one thing I tend to see people do 443 00:19:00,090 --> 00:19:03,090 is, you are too afraid to put all your money in preflop 444 00:19:03,090 --> 00:19:07,230 because you would think it's gambling or something. 445 00:19:07,230 --> 00:19:09,900 It is a lot of luck. 446 00:19:09,900 --> 00:19:12,060 You essentially put your tournament life-- 447 00:19:12,060 --> 00:19:13,380 you let it ride on a coin flip. 448 00:19:13,380 --> 00:19:16,487 So it does seem scary. 449 00:19:16,487 --> 00:19:18,070 But the thing to remember essentially, 450 00:19:18,070 --> 00:19:22,360 is late in the tournament, the antes and blinds are so big. 451 00:19:22,360 --> 00:19:25,440 And if you ever can win the blinds by going on, 452 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,470 that's such a large gain relative to what you risk, 453 00:19:28,470 --> 00:19:30,480 and also, any two cards of a chance 454 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,860 against any other preflop. 455 00:19:32,860 --> 00:19:34,260 So what was the rule I said? 456 00:19:34,260 --> 00:19:36,450 So the rule I said in the first class 457 00:19:36,450 --> 00:19:38,520 is, when the effective stack size 458 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,370 is less than 12 big blinds, when there is antes, 459 00:19:42,370 --> 00:19:45,510 then just go all in if you're going to play the hand at all. 460 00:19:45,510 --> 00:19:47,040 And if there's no antes, then you 461 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:51,390 need to be a bit shorter, because you 462 00:19:51,390 --> 00:19:54,210 don't want to risk 12 big blinds when there's no antes. 463 00:19:54,210 --> 00:19:57,600 So you only want to risk like 10 big blinds without antes. 464 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,390 But this is the rule that I outlined in the first class, 465 00:20:00,390 --> 00:20:03,750 roughly, and when you can go on. 466 00:20:03,750 --> 00:20:07,105 And one thing I wanted to talk about, too, 467 00:20:07,105 --> 00:20:08,790 before we get to the first example, 468 00:20:08,790 --> 00:20:12,000 is from the small blind-- 469 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,840 in the first class, I said, your button-opening range 470 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,450 is similar to your small blind opening range. 471 00:20:18,450 --> 00:20:21,420 And why was this, even though from the small blind-- 472 00:20:21,420 --> 00:20:24,300 so when it's folded to you in the small blind, 473 00:20:24,300 --> 00:20:26,884 you may have to get through one more player, whereas when it's 474 00:20:26,884 --> 00:20:29,425 folded to you on the button, you need to get through two more 475 00:20:29,425 --> 00:20:29,940 players. 476 00:20:29,940 --> 00:20:32,490 So it seems like you could play a lot more hands 477 00:20:32,490 --> 00:20:33,750 from the small blind. 478 00:20:33,750 --> 00:20:36,450 And another advantage of playing from the small blind, 479 00:20:36,450 --> 00:20:38,730 is you've already put in half a blind. 480 00:20:38,730 --> 00:20:41,555 So the amount more you're going to put in 481 00:20:41,555 --> 00:20:44,550 to play the pot is less, is half [? blindless. ?] 482 00:20:44,550 --> 00:20:46,376 But we said that being in position-- 483 00:20:46,376 --> 00:20:48,209 especially [? when we sell this last class-- 484 00:20:48,209 --> 00:20:50,770 ?] being in position is so important, 485 00:20:50,770 --> 00:20:53,400 that the fact that you're in position on the button and not 486 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,610 in position was the small blind, meant about balanced-out 487 00:20:56,610 --> 00:20:58,950 the advantages of playing hands from the small blind. 488 00:20:58,950 --> 00:21:00,960 So we said, roughly speaking, you 489 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:05,050 should be similarly willing to raise hands from the button 490 00:21:05,050 --> 00:21:08,120 and raise hands from the small blind. 491 00:21:08,120 --> 00:21:10,890 But for all-ins, position doesn't matter. 492 00:21:10,890 --> 00:21:13,290 If all the money goes in the pot preflop, then 493 00:21:13,290 --> 00:21:15,296 who gets the [? act ?] last postflop? 494 00:21:15,296 --> 00:21:16,920 Doesn't matter, because there's no more 495 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,420 actions to make postflop. 496 00:21:18,420 --> 00:21:21,360 So for all-ins, your small blind all-in range 497 00:21:21,360 --> 00:21:24,690 can be a lot wider than your button-on range. 498 00:21:24,690 --> 00:21:27,300 And furthermore, I think the threshold of how many bets 499 00:21:27,300 --> 00:21:31,140 you can have to go all in is a lot higher, because even 500 00:21:31,140 --> 00:21:33,360 with like 15, even with 20 big blinds, 501 00:21:33,360 --> 00:21:35,520 I often go all in from the small blind 502 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,820 if I know the big blind is a competent player. 503 00:21:38,820 --> 00:21:40,740 From the button, I would pretty much very 504 00:21:40,740 --> 00:21:43,920 rarely go on for 20 big blinds, because I'm not 505 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:46,770 that sad if I just raise it to 2.25 506 00:21:46,770 --> 00:21:48,780 and then call, because I play the rest 507 00:21:48,780 --> 00:21:50,400 of the hand in position. 508 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:53,460 But from the small blind, when I know that if they call, 509 00:21:53,460 --> 00:21:55,160 I'm playing the hand out of position, 510 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,140 I really want to avoid this situation. 511 00:21:57,140 --> 00:21:59,840 So going on for a huge amount from the small blind 512 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:03,080 is usually OK since there's only one player behind anyway. 513 00:22:06,710 --> 00:22:08,300 Let's look at a sample situation. 514 00:22:08,300 --> 00:22:10,640 And I'm going to first analyze it theoretically. 515 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:14,440 And then I'll try to go through a bunch of examples. 516 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,590 So do we go all in or fold here? 517 00:22:16,590 --> 00:22:19,520 And let's suppose we're reasoning exploitatively. 518 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:23,390 So this was level 2 thinking, not level 3 thinking. 519 00:22:23,390 --> 00:22:26,030 So if we're reasoning exploitatively, what 520 00:22:26,030 --> 00:22:27,940 we're asking ourselves is essentially, 521 00:22:27,940 --> 00:22:29,360 what's exploitative thinking? 522 00:22:29,360 --> 00:22:34,580 We model our opponent, give them a probability distribution, 523 00:22:34,580 --> 00:22:37,310 and then playing in a way that maximizes our expectation 524 00:22:37,310 --> 00:22:41,330 relative to the Bayesian probability distribution we 525 00:22:41,330 --> 00:22:43,640 put on our opponent. 526 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:45,530 You can ask yourself, is a blind a gambling 527 00:22:45,530 --> 00:22:46,280 Player? 528 00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,920 Is it likely he or she will call with a wide range of hands? 529 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:50,990 How crazy have I been playing? 530 00:22:50,990 --> 00:22:53,720 Will he give me any credit if I go all in? 531 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,120 Suppose the pay bubble doesn't matter. 532 00:22:56,120 --> 00:22:58,430 Suppose it's far from having to try 533 00:22:58,430 --> 00:23:04,202 to survive to make the next pay increase or whatever. 534 00:23:04,202 --> 00:23:04,910 So let's do this. 535 00:23:04,910 --> 00:23:06,260 What do we think he's calling? 536 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,230 OK so I want to see what you guys think. 537 00:23:12,230 --> 00:23:14,810 Does someone want to give me a hand 538 00:23:14,810 --> 00:23:17,840 that that you think he's calling, or definitely calling, 539 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,520 or definitely not calling? 540 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,042 You give me a no-brainer. 541 00:23:21,042 --> 00:23:22,000 I just want people to-- 542 00:23:24,294 --> 00:23:26,210 so what's the hand he's obviously not calling? 543 00:23:26,210 --> 00:23:28,114 AUDIENCE: 2-7 offsuit. 544 00:23:28,114 --> 00:23:28,816 OK, good. 545 00:23:28,816 --> 00:23:29,690 WILL MA: 2-7 offsuit. 546 00:23:29,690 --> 00:23:31,315 What's the hand he's obviously calling? 547 00:23:31,315 --> 00:23:32,730 [INTERPOSING VOICES] 548 00:23:32,730 --> 00:23:36,930 WILL MA: OK, so let's try to zero in a bit more, OK, 549 00:23:36,930 --> 00:23:37,430 don't worry. 550 00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:38,040 It's OK. 551 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,980 So tell me what hands you think he 552 00:23:39,980 --> 00:23:43,000 might be calling that are a bit worse than pocket aces? 553 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,170 What do you think is the smallest pocket 554 00:23:45,170 --> 00:23:47,960 pair he's calling? 555 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:49,419 If you're not sure, let me ask you. 556 00:23:49,419 --> 00:23:50,876 What's the smallest pocket pair you 557 00:23:50,876 --> 00:23:53,410 would call if you don't know anything about the small blind? 558 00:23:57,330 --> 00:23:58,840 So it's 15 big blinds. 559 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,470 It's a 15 big blinds all-in-one. 560 00:24:02,470 --> 00:24:06,230 OK, who would call pocket fives? 561 00:24:06,230 --> 00:24:10,080 Who would call, call pocket twos. 562 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,890 Who would call ace seven suited? 563 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,240 Who would call a queen jack offsuit? 564 00:24:23,370 --> 00:24:25,790 OK, so I guess we have a rough idea of-- 565 00:24:25,790 --> 00:24:28,490 so assuming you're playing against someone in this class, 566 00:24:28,490 --> 00:24:31,820 let's just say when you look at that sample, just sort of guess 567 00:24:31,820 --> 00:24:33,800 what they're calling. 568 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,440 So I had this range. 569 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,860 Maybe it's a bit more ambitious than what 570 00:24:39,860 --> 00:24:41,530 people put up their hands for. 571 00:24:41,530 --> 00:24:46,690 I said they would call with any pocket pair, any ace, king ten 572 00:24:46,690 --> 00:24:48,170 offsuit, king eight suited. 573 00:24:48,170 --> 00:24:50,780 So this is what I said they would call with just 25% 574 00:24:50,780 --> 00:24:52,370 of hands. 575 00:24:52,370 --> 00:24:54,380 Maybe in reality, they call with even less. 576 00:24:54,380 --> 00:24:58,040 Maybe in reality, they only call 20%, 15% of hands. 577 00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,250 But this just further emphasizes my point. 578 00:25:02,780 --> 00:25:06,620 So we assume, they call it 25%, let's say. 579 00:25:06,620 --> 00:25:07,610 OK, let's do the math. 580 00:25:07,610 --> 00:25:11,400 Let's now assume we have 10 offsuit. 581 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,621 OK, so let's do the math against this. 582 00:25:13,621 --> 00:25:14,120 Oh, sorry. 583 00:25:14,120 --> 00:25:17,830 So what is the equity of ten eight offsuit against their 25% 584 00:25:17,830 --> 00:25:18,330 Range? 585 00:25:18,330 --> 00:25:21,750 So when we get called, we're not going so well, because they're 586 00:25:21,750 --> 00:25:23,310 only calling 25% of hands. 587 00:25:23,310 --> 00:25:25,410 So their hand is going to be good when they call. 588 00:25:25,410 --> 00:25:26,075 We're only 36%. 589 00:25:28,366 --> 00:25:29,240 So let's do the math. 590 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,820 So 75% of the time, they're going to fold. 591 00:25:31,820 --> 00:25:34,430 And we're going to win 2.5 big blinds. 592 00:25:34,430 --> 00:25:37,700 Why is it 2.5 big blinds? 593 00:25:37,700 --> 00:25:39,650 There's a big blind that we're winning, 594 00:25:39,650 --> 00:25:41,360 there's a small blind that we're winning, 595 00:25:41,360 --> 00:25:45,300 and then there's one big blind from the antes 596 00:25:45,300 --> 00:25:47,120 that we're winning. 597 00:25:47,120 --> 00:25:47,881 And it's 3.5. 598 00:25:47,881 --> 00:25:49,880 We count the small blind, because even though we 599 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,774 put in the small blind, the fact that you put it in the pot-- 600 00:25:52,774 --> 00:25:54,440 it doesn't matter who put it in the pot. 601 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,120 The fact that it's already in the pot 602 00:25:56,120 --> 00:25:57,640 means we're winning the money. 603 00:25:57,640 --> 00:25:59,270 That make sense? 604 00:25:59,270 --> 00:26:01,700 So 25% of the time, he's going to call. 605 00:26:01,700 --> 00:26:04,250 And then when this happens, 36% of the time, 606 00:26:04,250 --> 00:26:05,630 we're going to win the all-in. 607 00:26:05,630 --> 00:26:08,190 And we're going to win 16.5 big big blinds. 608 00:26:08,190 --> 00:26:09,692 Because we're going to win the 1.5-- 609 00:26:09,692 --> 00:26:11,150 we're going to win the small blind, 610 00:26:11,150 --> 00:26:14,090 the antes plus his entire 15 Big Blind stack. 611 00:26:14,090 --> 00:26:15,830 64% of the time we're going to lose, 612 00:26:15,830 --> 00:26:18,360 and we're going to lose 14 and 1/2 Big Blinds, which 613 00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:21,290 is how much we wagered to do this all-in. 614 00:26:21,290 --> 00:26:23,000 So you can do the calculation. 615 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,890 And it's actually very positive. 616 00:26:24,890 --> 00:26:28,280 We're making an expectation, an entire Big Blind 617 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,430 by going all in. 618 00:26:31,430 --> 00:26:35,360 So now let's suppose we had a worse hand. 619 00:26:35,360 --> 00:26:39,639 So let's suppose we had 3-2 offsuit. 620 00:26:39,639 --> 00:26:41,180 We can do the same calculation again. 621 00:26:41,180 --> 00:26:43,640 The only thing that changed is, now 622 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,840 we only have 28% equity instead of 36% equity. 623 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,670 So 3-2 offsuit is actually a worse hand 624 00:26:50,670 --> 00:26:53,810 than 7-2 offsuit for a lot of all-in purposes. 625 00:26:53,810 --> 00:26:57,120 Because 7-2 offsuit is, like, the worst poker hand 626 00:26:57,120 --> 00:26:59,720 against a range of strong hands. 627 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,440 But against a range of any two cards, 628 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,680 3-2 off is actually worse than 7-2 off 629 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:07,056 because seven high is relevant if they had six high. 630 00:27:10,500 --> 00:27:12,740 Anyways, so you do the calculation, 631 00:27:12,740 --> 00:27:15,580 and you find that this is still an excellent play. 632 00:27:15,580 --> 00:27:17,690 So going on with 3-2 offsuit, it's 633 00:27:17,690 --> 00:27:19,130 actually not a crazy bad play. 634 00:27:19,130 --> 00:27:21,820 It looks like a crazy bad play on paper. 635 00:27:21,820 --> 00:27:25,500 And I'll tell you, in reality, it is a crazy bad play. 636 00:27:25,500 --> 00:27:27,800 But according to this calculation, 637 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,550 it's actually not a crazy bad play. 638 00:27:29,550 --> 00:27:32,980 You're actually earning 0.42 Big Blind. 639 00:27:32,980 --> 00:27:35,069 OK, so what's wrong? 640 00:27:35,069 --> 00:27:35,610 What's wrong? 641 00:27:35,610 --> 00:27:39,755 Why does our calculation say 3-2 off is a good play? 642 00:27:44,430 --> 00:27:46,350 And there's no mistake in the calculation. 643 00:27:46,350 --> 00:27:47,880 It's not because of a mistake in the calculation. 644 00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:49,588 AUDIENCE: Because of the high probability 645 00:27:49,588 --> 00:27:51,070 that he's not going to call you. 646 00:27:51,070 --> 00:27:52,070 WILL MA: Right, exactly. 647 00:27:52,070 --> 00:27:52,640 OK, good. 648 00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,890 Yeah, so basically remember, we did this calculation 649 00:27:55,890 --> 00:27:58,890 using Level 2 reasoning, exploitative thinking, right? 650 00:27:58,890 --> 00:28:00,810 We built a model for him. 651 00:28:00,810 --> 00:28:04,350 And if our model is correct, then actually 3-2 offsuit 652 00:28:04,350 --> 00:28:07,730 is a good all-in. 653 00:28:07,730 --> 00:28:10,260 So what this is showing us is actually-- 654 00:28:10,260 --> 00:28:12,660 the point is, if our model is correct, 655 00:28:12,660 --> 00:28:14,320 then they're making a mistake. 656 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:18,380 Then he's making a mistake by only calling 25% of hands. 657 00:28:18,380 --> 00:28:21,140 It's just too small a fraction. 658 00:28:21,140 --> 00:28:23,790 It's too small a fraction of hands to call with. 659 00:28:23,790 --> 00:28:25,440 So I guess the lesson sort of is-- 660 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,450 so when I took the poll around the class, 661 00:28:27,450 --> 00:28:30,030 you guys wanted to call even less than 25%, right? 662 00:28:30,030 --> 00:28:32,430 25% still includes Ace-2 offsuit, 663 00:28:32,430 --> 00:28:35,234 and still includes hands like-- 664 00:28:35,234 --> 00:28:35,900 let's see again. 665 00:28:35,900 --> 00:28:37,950 It still includes hands like Queen, 666 00:28:37,950 --> 00:28:42,430 King-10 offsuit, Queen-10 suited, King-8 suited. 667 00:28:42,430 --> 00:28:45,780 So even 25% is sort of too low in the sense 668 00:28:45,780 --> 00:28:49,650 that it allows a Small Blind to shove any two cards-- 669 00:28:49,650 --> 00:28:53,850 shove means all-in, shove any two cards profitably. 670 00:28:53,850 --> 00:28:55,434 And in reality, it might be the lower 671 00:28:55,434 --> 00:28:56,850 if people were being truthful when 672 00:28:56,850 --> 00:29:00,450 they put up their hand for what they're calling with, right? 673 00:29:00,450 --> 00:29:03,060 So basically my point is, I think 674 00:29:03,060 --> 00:29:05,760 people are too afraid to go all-in preflop. 675 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:10,380 Going all in preflop is fine, basically. 676 00:29:10,380 --> 00:29:12,390 So let's suppose we're the Big Blind now, 677 00:29:12,390 --> 00:29:14,460 and we're considering adding Queen-Jack off 678 00:29:14,460 --> 00:29:16,970 to our calling range. 679 00:29:16,970 --> 00:29:19,680 So I'm saying, OK, you're making the mistake 680 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:24,390 as a Big Blind of only calling 25%. 681 00:29:24,390 --> 00:29:26,140 But what's wrong with my reasoning, right? 682 00:29:26,140 --> 00:29:27,806 The thing that's wrong with my reasoning 683 00:29:27,806 --> 00:29:31,050 is, that's only mistake from a Level 3 reasoning 684 00:29:31,050 --> 00:29:32,220 point of view, right? 685 00:29:32,220 --> 00:29:35,880 That's only a mistake in that it's not theoretically optimal 686 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,220 because in theory, the Small Blind could shove any two 687 00:29:38,220 --> 00:29:39,570 cards profitably. 688 00:29:39,570 --> 00:29:42,630 But if the Small Blind isn't actually shoving any two cards, 689 00:29:42,630 --> 00:29:45,560 then maybe this is actually the optimal range to call. 690 00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:49,080 If the Small Blind is shoving too small, then maybe 25% 691 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,480 is the optimal strategy for the Big 692 00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,789 Blind from that point of view. 693 00:29:54,789 --> 00:29:56,580 So we can do a calculation with Queen-Jack. 694 00:29:56,580 --> 00:30:00,270 So let's assume the Small Blind only shoves top 25% 695 00:30:00,270 --> 00:30:02,290 of hands instead of 100%. 696 00:30:02,290 --> 00:30:05,100 Then your equity is only 42%. 697 00:30:05,100 --> 00:30:08,320 And what equity do we need to call all-in? 698 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,320 We need to call 14 Big Blinds, right? 699 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:11,690 We need to call 14 Big Blinds. 700 00:30:11,690 --> 00:30:13,980 And if we call, the pot will be 31. 701 00:30:13,980 --> 00:30:18,420 So we need 14 over 31, which is about 45% equity. 702 00:30:18,420 --> 00:30:22,170 We only have 42, so we actually shouldn't call anymore. 703 00:30:22,170 --> 00:30:24,510 So it's possible the Big Blinds play is correct. 704 00:30:24,510 --> 00:30:29,430 But the point is, someone's play isn't correct. 705 00:30:29,430 --> 00:30:31,860 So I also wanted this example to give you 706 00:30:31,860 --> 00:30:35,900 another idea of what sort of optimal Nash equilibrium play 707 00:30:35,900 --> 00:30:37,050 is. 708 00:30:37,050 --> 00:30:38,630 So I'm going to-- 709 00:30:38,630 --> 00:30:41,540 so let's draw a chart of what is in game theory called 710 00:30:41,540 --> 00:30:43,990 an iterative best response. 711 00:30:43,990 --> 00:30:46,890 So how this works is, I fix a strategy for one player. 712 00:30:46,890 --> 00:30:48,780 I take the best strategy for the other player 713 00:30:48,780 --> 00:30:50,340 at exploiting this strategy. 714 00:30:50,340 --> 00:30:52,260 And then I fix that strategy, and I come back. 715 00:30:52,260 --> 00:30:54,480 So I fix the strategy for the Big Blind, which 716 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,580 is only call 25% of hands. 717 00:30:56,580 --> 00:30:59,235 And then I ask myself, what's the best way for the Small 718 00:30:59,235 --> 00:31:00,630 Blind to exploit this? 719 00:31:00,630 --> 00:31:03,030 Well, it's to shove 100% of hands, 720 00:31:03,030 --> 00:31:06,180 right, by the calculation. 721 00:31:06,180 --> 00:31:10,110 So now, if the Small Blind is fixed on this strategy, 722 00:31:10,110 --> 00:31:12,870 what's the best way for the Big Blind to exploit this? 723 00:31:12,870 --> 00:31:16,130 Well, it's to call with anything basically, 724 00:31:16,130 --> 00:31:17,880 because you know they're shoving anything. 725 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:23,340 So it's a call with a very wide range, say, 67% of hands. 726 00:31:23,340 --> 00:31:25,680 So once the Big Blind is calling too much, 727 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,900 how does the Small Blind exploit this? 728 00:31:27,900 --> 00:31:29,280 Well, now they tighten up, right? 729 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:30,420 They only shove their good hands. 730 00:31:30,420 --> 00:31:32,580 And that's fine, because they're getting paid off 731 00:31:32,580 --> 00:31:34,680 very often when they shove their good hands. 732 00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:36,270 But once the Small Blind realizes 733 00:31:36,270 --> 00:31:37,992 they shove only their good hands, 734 00:31:37,992 --> 00:31:39,450 then the Big Blind's like, oh crap, 735 00:31:39,450 --> 00:31:41,790 I shouldn't be calling 67% anymore. 736 00:31:41,790 --> 00:31:43,450 I'm going to call less, 30%. 737 00:31:43,450 --> 00:31:46,297 So overall, let me draw sort of a diagram 738 00:31:46,297 --> 00:31:47,380 of how it's going to work. 739 00:31:50,100 --> 00:31:52,120 So you can see, right? 740 00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:55,180 0, 100 Small Blind. 741 00:32:00,170 --> 00:32:03,020 So essentially how it works is-- 742 00:32:03,020 --> 00:32:05,700 let me just put some markers. 743 00:32:05,700 --> 00:32:07,190 So how it's going to start out is, 744 00:32:07,190 --> 00:32:12,410 the Big Blind calls 25%, right, which is here, 25%. 745 00:32:12,410 --> 00:32:15,860 And then the Small Blind, to exploit this, shoves 100%. 746 00:32:15,860 --> 00:32:18,560 Then the Big Blind goes to call 67%, 747 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,800 and then the Small Blind will respond by shoving 40%. 748 00:32:21,800 --> 00:32:23,480 These numbers are approximate, right? 749 00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:26,180 Then the Small Blind will shove too little, 750 00:32:26,180 --> 00:32:29,330 and then the Big Blind will sort of call too little. 751 00:32:29,330 --> 00:32:33,050 And then it'll essentially go here, and then go here, 752 00:32:33,050 --> 00:32:35,660 and then go here, and then go here. 753 00:32:35,660 --> 00:32:38,850 So essentially, the point is it's going to converge. 754 00:32:38,850 --> 00:32:43,250 It's going to zero in on this blue line, on these blue lines. 755 00:32:43,250 --> 00:32:45,980 And the thing that it zeroes in on 756 00:32:45,980 --> 00:32:48,630 is basically what's called the Nash equilibrium. 757 00:32:48,630 --> 00:32:50,630 So you can actually compute the Nash equilibrium 758 00:32:50,630 --> 00:32:52,940 with a computer in this case, which is what I did. 759 00:32:52,940 --> 00:32:55,090 And this is what the Nash equilibrium is. 760 00:32:55,090 --> 00:32:58,805 So the optimal thing to do is for the Small Blind 761 00:32:58,805 --> 00:33:02,210 to shove about 66.8% of hands, and the Big Bind 762 00:33:02,210 --> 00:33:05,790 to call about 38.5% of hands. 763 00:33:05,790 --> 00:33:09,470 And I think if you play reasonably, 764 00:33:09,470 --> 00:33:12,110 reasonable stakes online poker tournaments nowadays, 765 00:33:12,110 --> 00:33:13,640 this is what most people know how 766 00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:16,760 to do because most people will have a computer program that 767 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:18,760 can do this calculation for them. 768 00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:22,500 But it's quite loose, essentially. 769 00:33:22,500 --> 00:33:25,920 So remember, the situation was 15 Big Blinds, there are antes, 770 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:27,170 and you're in the Small Blind. 771 00:33:27,170 --> 00:33:30,200 You should be shoving 2/3 of hands, roughly. 772 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:33,130 And the Big Blind should be calling almost 40% of hands. 773 00:33:33,130 --> 00:33:34,780 And this is the ranges. 774 00:33:34,780 --> 00:33:38,990 And as you can see, the Small Blind can shove 4-3 suited. 775 00:33:38,990 --> 00:33:40,950 So suitedness is very important. 776 00:33:40,950 --> 00:33:46,780 But if your hand is unsuited, then 7-6 offsuit is a shove. 777 00:33:46,780 --> 00:33:48,380 Oh, 6-5 offsuit it as a shove, too. 778 00:33:48,380 --> 00:33:52,010 But 9-5 offsuit is not a shove because it says 9-6 779 00:33:52,010 --> 00:33:55,114 off plus, which means 9-5 off is not a shove. 780 00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:00,620 So it's always a good idea to know the Nash thing just 781 00:34:00,620 --> 00:34:01,460 for preflop. 782 00:34:01,460 --> 00:34:03,854 Because even if you're trying to exploit your opponent, 783 00:34:03,854 --> 00:34:06,020 you want to make sure you're never going too far off 784 00:34:06,020 --> 00:34:07,239 from the optimal play. 785 00:34:07,239 --> 00:34:08,780 Because whenever you get too far off, 786 00:34:08,780 --> 00:34:13,904 you could potentially be getting exploited. 787 00:34:13,904 --> 00:34:16,070 Yeah, but I mean, you don't have to do exactly this. 788 00:34:16,070 --> 00:34:17,989 I'm not saying everyone should do exactly this, right? 789 00:34:17,989 --> 00:34:19,370 If you think you're smarter than your opponent, 790 00:34:19,370 --> 00:34:21,290 and you have a good model than your opponent, 791 00:34:21,290 --> 00:34:25,040 if you think the Big Blind is calling way fewer than 38.5% 792 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:28,440 of hands, then you can go in with a lot more than 66.8% 793 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:29,840 of hands. 794 00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,670 Just make sure if you do decide to try 795 00:34:31,670 --> 00:34:34,400 to exploit your opponent, you do the exploitation 796 00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:36,199 in the right direction. 797 00:34:36,199 --> 00:34:38,839 If they're calling too little, then you need to shove a lot. 798 00:34:38,839 --> 00:34:40,380 If they're calling too much, then you 799 00:34:40,380 --> 00:34:41,463 need to shove very little. 800 00:34:41,463 --> 00:34:43,610 That makes sense to everyone, right? 801 00:34:43,610 --> 00:34:46,790 That's the right direction to exploit your opponent. 802 00:34:46,790 --> 00:34:49,747 And similarly, if the opponent is shoving too much, 803 00:34:49,747 --> 00:34:51,080 then you're going to call a lot. 804 00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:52,496 And if they're shoving too little, 805 00:34:52,496 --> 00:34:54,210 then you call very little as well. 806 00:34:57,089 --> 00:34:59,630 But Yeah, but what's good about the Nash equilibrium strategy 807 00:34:59,630 --> 00:35:01,170 is you can't be exploited. 808 00:35:01,170 --> 00:35:04,250 You know no matter what they do-- the optimal, basically 809 00:35:04,250 --> 00:35:07,390 the reason why this is called the convergence point 810 00:35:07,390 --> 00:35:11,630 is because if the Small Blind is shoving 66.8%, 811 00:35:11,630 --> 00:35:14,990 the best for the Big Blind to do against that is 38.5%. 812 00:35:14,990 --> 00:35:19,490 And the best you shove against 38.5% calling range is 66.8%. 813 00:35:19,490 --> 00:35:22,430 So it essentially converges, that's why 814 00:35:22,430 --> 00:35:24,500 it's called an equilibrium. 815 00:35:24,500 --> 00:35:28,190 So hopefully this gives you a better, a more concrete example 816 00:35:28,190 --> 00:35:30,950 for those of you who haven't seen what a Nash equilibrium is 817 00:35:30,950 --> 00:35:36,760 exactly, of what I mean by optimal Level 3 reasoning play. 818 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,330 OK, so that's enough of that. 819 00:35:38,330 --> 00:35:40,600 So now let's go do some concrete ranges. 820 00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:43,730 So now you can ask me, how do we learn these ranges, right? 821 00:35:43,730 --> 00:35:47,110 I showed you the Nash range for one specific situation. 822 00:35:47,110 --> 00:35:50,275 But the situations you can enumerate. 823 00:35:50,275 --> 00:35:51,650 There's going to be a lot, right? 824 00:35:51,650 --> 00:35:55,010 So I showed you the range for Small Blind versus Big Blind, 825 00:35:55,010 --> 00:35:58,099 and there's 15 Big Blinds. 826 00:35:58,099 --> 00:35:59,390 But what if it's 14 Big Blinds? 827 00:35:59,390 --> 00:36:01,070 What if it's 13 Big Blinds, right? 828 00:36:01,070 --> 00:36:04,730 What if it's 10 Big Blinds with no ante? 829 00:36:04,730 --> 00:36:06,590 So essentially it's a combination 830 00:36:06,590 --> 00:36:11,360 of memorization, understanding theory, and then extrapolation 831 00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:15,000 slash interpolation. 832 00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:16,525 So let me just show you a few more. 833 00:36:16,525 --> 00:36:17,900 So just to give you a rough idea, 834 00:36:17,900 --> 00:36:21,690 this is where the memorization slash interpretation comes in, 835 00:36:21,690 --> 00:36:25,020 because if you have a few baselines to go off of, 836 00:36:25,020 --> 00:36:29,780 you can sort of use rules that theoretically make sense 837 00:36:29,780 --> 00:36:31,160 to extrapolate, right? 838 00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:34,130 So here's button, 10 Big Blinds. 839 00:36:34,130 --> 00:36:38,390 43.9%, and this is roughly the hands. 840 00:36:38,390 --> 00:36:43,400 Oh sorry, is it clear what this range of hands means? 841 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,330 I guess I never really explained. 842 00:36:45,330 --> 00:36:52,170 Basically s mean suited, o means offsuit, and plus just means 843 00:36:52,170 --> 00:36:58,050 any hand where the denominations are strictly higher. 844 00:36:58,050 --> 00:37:00,680 If you don't know exactly what it means, it's not a huge deal. 845 00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,180 But roughly, you want to sort of know what 846 00:37:06,180 --> 00:37:07,960 this is, what this is saying. 847 00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,700 So there's a few weird cases, but roughly, if it says Ax+, 848 00:37:11,700 --> 00:37:13,740 that means any Ace, any hand with an Ace, 849 00:37:13,740 --> 00:37:15,570 suited or unsuited you can go all-in. 850 00:37:19,230 --> 00:37:24,360 So 43.9%-- So in terms of extrapolation 851 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:25,195 and interpolation-- 852 00:37:25,195 --> 00:37:26,570 I just want to make sure everyone 853 00:37:26,570 --> 00:37:27,750 gets the directions right. 854 00:37:27,750 --> 00:37:31,920 So if I move from button to the cutoff, 855 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:35,680 does the fraction of hands go up or down? 856 00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:36,560 AUDIENCE: Down. 857 00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:37,880 WILL MA: Down, right? 858 00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,880 So the fraction of hands goes down because from the cutoff 859 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:42,760 there's more players to get through, right? 860 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,140 So you need a better hand. 861 00:37:45,140 --> 00:37:48,430 You can't-- so the fraction of hands you can shove goes down, 862 00:37:48,430 --> 00:37:48,930 right? 863 00:37:48,930 --> 00:37:50,096 That make sense to everyone? 864 00:37:50,096 --> 00:37:53,464 So make sure you get the direction right. 865 00:37:53,464 --> 00:37:55,880 And then what if the number of Big Blinds goes up or down? 866 00:37:55,880 --> 00:38:00,169 So let's say it's 15 Big Blinds. 867 00:38:00,169 --> 00:38:02,210 I guess 15 is sort of too much to go all-in with, 868 00:38:02,210 --> 00:38:04,059 but let's say it's 12 Big Blinds. 869 00:38:04,059 --> 00:38:06,350 Does someone have a guess what the percentage might be? 870 00:38:09,540 --> 00:38:11,320 You just have to get the direction right. 871 00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:11,590 Someone? 872 00:38:11,590 --> 00:38:12,215 Yeah? 873 00:38:12,215 --> 00:38:12,798 AUDIENCE: 40%. 874 00:38:12,798 --> 00:38:14,350 WILL MA: Yeah, 40%. 875 00:38:14,350 --> 00:38:15,550 That's about right. 876 00:38:15,550 --> 00:38:16,810 That's about right, basically. 877 00:38:16,810 --> 00:38:19,300 So the percentage will go down a bit. 878 00:38:19,300 --> 00:38:21,740 And what if you only have 5 Big Blinds? 879 00:38:21,740 --> 00:38:23,550 Does someone want to guess the percentage? 880 00:38:23,550 --> 00:38:24,140 AUDIENCE: 60%. 881 00:38:24,140 --> 00:38:24,931 WILL MA: 60%, yeah. 882 00:38:24,931 --> 00:38:26,360 That's about right. 883 00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:28,510 So try to get the directions right. 884 00:38:28,510 --> 00:38:30,380 If you have a few baseline points, 885 00:38:30,380 --> 00:38:32,260 and if you can get the directions right, 886 00:38:32,260 --> 00:38:35,870 that's a very important first step. 887 00:38:35,870 --> 00:38:38,020 So here's another data point. 888 00:38:38,020 --> 00:38:40,750 Cutoff, 7 Big Blinds. 889 00:38:40,750 --> 00:38:42,310 It's 38.8%. 890 00:38:42,310 --> 00:38:45,340 So notice that the cutoff, this situation compared 891 00:38:45,340 --> 00:38:48,000 to the first one, you're one position worse because you're 892 00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:49,350 cutoff instead of button. 893 00:38:49,350 --> 00:38:52,570 But you're risking a lot less, so you only have 7 Big Blinds. 894 00:38:52,570 --> 00:38:55,880 But the percentage is still going down. 895 00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:57,460 So I think I said this first class 896 00:38:57,460 --> 00:39:01,330 as well, the position matters a lot more than the number of Big 897 00:39:01,330 --> 00:39:04,142 Blinds because for the number of Big Binds, 898 00:39:04,142 --> 00:39:05,600 even though you are, in some sense, 899 00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,620 risking a lot more as you have more Big Blinds, 900 00:39:08,620 --> 00:39:10,270 it's also harder to get called. 901 00:39:10,270 --> 00:39:12,040 If I go all in for 10 Big Blinds, 902 00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:13,810 they're going to fold a lot more than if I 903 00:39:13,810 --> 00:39:15,439 go all-in for 7 Big Blinds. 904 00:39:15,439 --> 00:39:17,230 So that's why the position actually matters 905 00:39:17,230 --> 00:39:20,130 a lot more than how many bets. 906 00:39:20,130 --> 00:39:21,530 OK, so lojack-- 907 00:39:21,530 --> 00:39:22,810 So that's hijack minus one. 908 00:39:22,810 --> 00:39:24,670 So that's two over from the cutoff. 909 00:39:24,670 --> 00:39:25,620 It's only 28-- 910 00:39:25,620 --> 00:39:31,330 10 Big Blinds is only 23.4%, but it's still nothing. 911 00:39:31,330 --> 00:39:32,200 Not nothing. 912 00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,017 So under the gun nine handed with 3 Big Blinds, 913 00:39:35,017 --> 00:39:36,100 it's actually pretty high. 914 00:39:36,100 --> 00:39:39,984 It's 24.1%. 915 00:39:39,984 --> 00:39:41,650 So you can go look at those on your own. 916 00:39:41,650 --> 00:39:46,682 You can also calculate on your own in certain websites. 917 00:39:46,682 --> 00:39:49,600 Yeah, so this will roughly give you an idea 918 00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,230 of the shape of the graph. 919 00:39:51,230 --> 00:39:53,230 So this is under the gun all-ins. 920 00:39:53,230 --> 00:39:56,730 It's a bit approximated, but with 15 Big Blinds-- 921 00:39:56,730 --> 00:39:59,352 I know I recommended with 15 Big Blinds not to go all-in. 922 00:39:59,352 --> 00:40:01,060 And I think that's a good recommendation, 923 00:40:01,060 --> 00:40:04,540 but let's say you told the computer they were forced 924 00:40:04,540 --> 00:40:06,340 to go all-in with 15 Big Blinds, and they 925 00:40:06,340 --> 00:40:08,260 had to calculate the Nash equilibrium, 926 00:40:08,260 --> 00:40:09,770 this is what it would spit out. 927 00:40:09,770 --> 00:40:12,880 It would say, you go all-in with this 6.2%. 928 00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:15,250 And with 10 Big Blinds, it's 13.4%. 929 00:40:15,250 --> 00:40:17,380 With 5 Big Blinds, it's 33.3%. 930 00:40:17,380 --> 00:40:21,400 So it actually increases quite a lot for under the gun. 931 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:24,880 For under the gun, the amount of the fraction of hands 932 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,300 you can wager as a function of how many Big Blinds actually 933 00:40:28,300 --> 00:40:29,809 goes up quite a lot. 934 00:40:29,809 --> 00:40:30,600 AUDIENCE: Question. 935 00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:31,360 WILL MA: Yeah? 936 00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:34,890 AUDIENCE: For example, you have 15 Big Blinds, 937 00:40:34,890 --> 00:40:43,420 and you get an Ace-Jack offsuited, what would be-- 938 00:40:43,420 --> 00:40:45,490 how much would you raise? 939 00:40:45,490 --> 00:40:48,339 WILL MA: Oh, I would raise to 2 Big Blinds, or 2.25 Big Blinds. 940 00:40:48,339 --> 00:40:49,172 AUDIENCE: That's it? 941 00:40:49,172 --> 00:40:49,671 Very little? 942 00:40:49,671 --> 00:40:51,030 WILL MA: Yeah. 943 00:40:51,030 --> 00:40:53,410 For all hands, I essentially raise to 2.25 Big Blinds. 944 00:40:53,410 --> 00:40:57,130 AUDIENCE: But it goes from 2.25 Big Blinds to all-in? 945 00:40:57,130 --> 00:40:58,254 There's no middle range? 946 00:40:58,254 --> 00:40:59,170 WILL MA: Right, right. 947 00:40:59,170 --> 00:41:00,336 There's no in between, yeah. 948 00:41:00,336 --> 00:41:03,580 So the reason essentially is, there's-- 949 00:41:03,580 --> 00:41:06,690 so let's say you raise to 5 Big Blinds, right? 950 00:41:06,690 --> 00:41:10,060 This is essentially equivalent to an all-in, except worse. 951 00:41:10,060 --> 00:41:11,640 So why is it equivalent to an all-in? 952 00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:15,370 Because if your opponent has pocket Aces, or a good hand, 953 00:41:15,370 --> 00:41:18,580 not necessarily pocket Aces, they're going to go all-in. 954 00:41:18,580 --> 00:41:20,320 And pretty much, you have to call. 955 00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,660 I mean, if you knew they had exactly pocket Aces, 956 00:41:22,660 --> 00:41:23,530 you could fold. 957 00:41:23,530 --> 00:41:26,110 But it's possible for them to play a balanced strategy 958 00:41:26,110 --> 00:41:28,230 where they could have pocket Aces, or Ace-King, 959 00:41:28,230 --> 00:41:32,860 or pocket 10s, or whatever, and you're forced to call anyway. 960 00:41:32,860 --> 00:41:36,820 So essentially if you make it any more than 2.25 Big Blinds, 961 00:41:36,820 --> 00:41:40,270 you put in enough chips that your opponent can just 962 00:41:40,270 --> 00:41:43,880 play a strategy that forces you to go all-in when they want to. 963 00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,150 And so it's basically strictly worse than just 964 00:41:46,150 --> 00:41:47,350 going all-in yourself. 965 00:41:47,350 --> 00:41:49,160 Yeah, good question. 966 00:41:51,724 --> 00:41:53,890 But yeah, with 15 Big Blinds, I would recommend just 967 00:41:53,890 --> 00:41:55,681 raising small, although I don't think going 968 00:41:55,681 --> 00:41:58,450 all-in is the end of the world. 969 00:41:58,450 --> 00:42:01,640 OK, so this is roughly what the shape of the curve looks like. 970 00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:03,610 So here's another example. 971 00:42:03,610 --> 00:42:07,330 So for hijack, from 15 Big Blinds to 10 Big Blinds, 972 00:42:07,330 --> 00:42:08,942 it actually changes very little. 973 00:42:08,942 --> 00:42:10,150 I guess it changes somewhat-- 974 00:42:10,150 --> 00:42:12,700 23.4% to 28%. 975 00:42:12,700 --> 00:42:14,920 And then with 5 Big Blinds, it goes up very fast. 976 00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:18,490 So as the number of Big Blinds goes down, it increases a lot. 977 00:42:18,490 --> 00:42:22,540 But the difference-- but the change from 15 to 10 978 00:42:22,540 --> 00:42:23,386 isn't that much. 979 00:42:23,386 --> 00:42:24,760 I guess under the gun it's a lot, 980 00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:26,480 but for hijack, it's not that much. 981 00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:28,690 So just give you some ideas. 982 00:42:28,690 --> 00:42:30,870 I don't expect anyone to do this perfectly. 983 00:42:30,870 --> 00:42:33,190 I'm trying-- I gave you a bit of data points. 984 00:42:33,190 --> 00:42:36,370 Just try your best to extrapolate a lot, 985 00:42:36,370 --> 00:42:40,410 try your best to extrapolate slash interpolate. 986 00:42:40,410 --> 00:42:42,400 If you're off by a lot, that's fine. 987 00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:45,100 The biggest thing is, just try not to get the direction wrong. 988 00:42:45,100 --> 00:42:47,440 Don't think, if I'm one position worse, 989 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,510 I can shove more hands, or something. 990 00:42:49,510 --> 00:42:54,340 So a few more pointers about going all-in preflop. 991 00:42:54,340 --> 00:42:57,270 So here, this is definitely a good play, I think. 992 00:42:57,270 --> 00:42:59,510 So you have pocket fours from hijack. 993 00:42:59,510 --> 00:43:02,410 You have 15 Big Blinds, which is more than what I 994 00:43:02,410 --> 00:43:03,880 said you should go all-in with. 995 00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,060 But I think-- but going all-in is a good play, 996 00:43:07,060 --> 00:43:10,370 instead of just raising to two times the Big Blind. 997 00:43:10,370 --> 00:43:13,100 Because small pairs, while having good 998 00:43:13,100 --> 00:43:16,730 implied odds when very deep-- 999 00:43:16,730 --> 00:43:19,430 so in the last class, I talked to you about set mining. 1000 00:43:19,430 --> 00:43:22,670 I said small pairs are great when you have 100 Big Blinds 1001 00:43:22,670 --> 00:43:24,470 because you can try to hit three of a kind, 1002 00:43:24,470 --> 00:43:26,720 and just win a massive amount of money when you do. 1003 00:43:26,720 --> 00:43:29,460 But they actually have terrible implied odds 1004 00:43:29,460 --> 00:43:34,040 when it's 20 Big Blinds deep because you only 1005 00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:35,870 hit three of a kind one eighth of the time. 1006 00:43:35,870 --> 00:43:38,530 When you do, the total effective stack size 1007 00:43:38,530 --> 00:43:40,880 is not enough for you to recoup your losses. 1008 00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:42,962 And when you don't, you're just always going 1009 00:43:42,962 --> 00:43:44,670 to be sitting there with a pair of fours, 1010 00:43:44,670 --> 00:43:47,044 and there's always going to be higher cards on the board. 1011 00:43:47,044 --> 00:43:49,100 It's going to be Ace, Jack, 10, and you're always 1012 00:43:49,100 --> 00:43:50,099 playing a guessing game. 1013 00:43:50,099 --> 00:43:51,710 Does my opponent have a better pair? 1014 00:43:51,710 --> 00:43:54,540 And you just can't make good decisions. 1015 00:43:54,540 --> 00:43:57,500 So that's why with small pairs, just going all-in, even 1016 00:43:57,500 --> 00:44:01,607 for a lot of Big Blinds, is reasonable. 1017 00:44:01,607 --> 00:44:02,690 So here's another example. 1018 00:44:02,690 --> 00:44:03,551 Queen-8's good. 1019 00:44:03,551 --> 00:44:05,300 Normally you wouldn't go all-in with that. 1020 00:44:05,300 --> 00:44:07,100 You normally would just fold under the gun 1021 00:44:07,100 --> 00:44:08,183 if you had a lot of chips. 1022 00:44:08,183 --> 00:44:13,340 But with only 5 Big Blinds, going all-in is fine. 1023 00:44:13,340 --> 00:44:16,280 Another factor that's actually sort of relevant here is-- 1024 00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:18,410 this is sort of a higher level thing, 1025 00:44:18,410 --> 00:44:21,900 but it's good to keep in mind is, when you're under the gun, 1026 00:44:21,900 --> 00:44:24,020 in some sense you have the least to lose 1027 00:44:24,020 --> 00:44:25,970 by busting the tournament. 1028 00:44:25,970 --> 00:44:29,589 So by going all-in, you're risking busting the tournament. 1029 00:44:29,589 --> 00:44:31,880 So this is not true in a cash game, but in a tournament 1030 00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:33,065 it's true. 1031 00:44:33,065 --> 00:44:34,940 You want to go all-in from under the gun when 1032 00:44:34,940 --> 00:44:36,560 you're really, really short. 1033 00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:39,800 You have very little to lose by busting the tournament 1034 00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:42,920 because if you don't bust the tournament, the next hand, 1035 00:44:42,920 --> 00:44:45,440 you're the Big Blind, which really, really sucks. 1036 00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:47,501 So even though you busted the tournament, 1037 00:44:47,501 --> 00:44:50,000 you busted the tournament in a situation where the next hand 1038 00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,890 you would have had to pay the blind, which 1039 00:44:51,890 --> 00:44:54,110 is one fifth that your stack, in this case. 1040 00:44:54,110 --> 00:44:57,140 So going all-in is OK. 1041 00:44:57,140 --> 00:44:59,810 Ace-2 suited is another example of a hand that's 1042 00:44:59,810 --> 00:45:01,220 pretty good to go all-in with. 1043 00:45:01,220 --> 00:45:04,430 Because if they have a better Ace, you're still suited, 1044 00:45:04,430 --> 00:45:06,470 so you have chances of catching up. 1045 00:45:06,470 --> 00:45:10,490 And the fact that you remove an Ace, 1046 00:45:10,490 --> 00:45:12,550 there's less Aces out there for them to have, 1047 00:45:12,550 --> 00:45:14,831 is quite relevant, actually. 1048 00:45:14,831 --> 00:45:16,580 The fact that there's three Aces out there 1049 00:45:16,580 --> 00:45:20,214 for them to make a good hand to call you with, than being four. 1050 00:45:20,214 --> 00:45:21,630 Everyone know what I mean by that? 1051 00:45:21,630 --> 00:45:24,200 So if you have an Ace, there's one less out there 1052 00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:26,420 to go around. 1053 00:45:26,420 --> 00:45:30,480 Yeah, so we go all-in here. 1054 00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:36,050 And yeah, here we have 17 and 1/2 Big Blinds from the button. 1055 00:45:36,050 --> 00:45:39,227 But I think going all-in with Ace-4 off is fine, basically. 1056 00:45:39,227 --> 00:45:39,810 So it's a lot. 1057 00:45:39,810 --> 00:45:45,820 It's 17 and 1/2 Big Blinds, but once again, Ace-x offsuit 1058 00:45:45,820 --> 00:45:48,600 has terrible implied odds. 1059 00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,970 It also protects your small pair shoves a bit. 1060 00:45:51,970 --> 00:45:55,670 So when I said this pocket twos hand-- 1061 00:45:55,670 --> 00:45:57,630 sorry, this pocket fours hand, I said 1062 00:45:57,630 --> 00:46:00,120 you can go all in for 15 Big Blinds. 1063 00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:03,290 But what's one problem if you follow this strategy exactly? 1064 00:46:03,290 --> 00:46:05,240 It's whenever you do this, your opponent 1065 00:46:05,240 --> 00:46:09,226 knows you have pocket twos or pocket threes, right? 1066 00:46:09,226 --> 00:46:10,740 Then what can they do? 1067 00:46:10,740 --> 00:46:14,960 They can call with 10-9 suited, which is not a good hand. 1068 00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,480 Like 10 high against a 15 Big Blind shove 1069 00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:19,370 shouldn't be possible, but they can. 1070 00:46:19,370 --> 00:46:25,420 So if you also do this with Ace-x, it protects you a bit. 1071 00:46:25,420 --> 00:46:27,800 Yeah, with 7-6 suited, I think it's also OK. 1072 00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,440 This is a similar story, pocket Deuces. 1073 00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:34,310 7-6 suited has great implied odds when you're 100 bets deep, 1074 00:46:34,310 --> 00:46:37,290 and making straights and flushes is very relevant. 1075 00:46:37,290 --> 00:46:40,520 But when you're only 20 bets deep, 1076 00:46:40,520 --> 00:46:42,350 and you're just trying to make a big pair, 1077 00:46:42,350 --> 00:46:44,750 essentially, small cards just aren't good 1078 00:46:44,750 --> 00:46:47,700 at making big pairs, can't make big pairs. 1079 00:46:47,700 --> 00:46:53,610 So once again, going on is acceptable. 1080 00:46:53,610 --> 00:46:55,800 So one thing to watch out for is-- 1081 00:46:55,800 --> 00:46:57,500 I actually swept this under the rug 1082 00:46:57,500 --> 00:46:59,130 in the last couple of slides. 1083 00:46:59,130 --> 00:47:01,330 But in all these cases I showed you, 1084 00:47:01,330 --> 00:47:05,920 there's actually a pretty big disincentive to go all-in. 1085 00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:09,182 Does anyone see what it is by looking at the stack sizes? 1086 00:47:09,182 --> 00:47:10,890 So they've always been the same actually, 1087 00:47:10,890 --> 00:47:14,077 but does someone see a pretty big disincentive? 1088 00:47:14,077 --> 00:47:14,660 Yeah, Vincent? 1089 00:47:14,660 --> 00:47:19,080 AUDIENCE: Other people have much larger stacks than you. 1090 00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:20,850 WILL MA: Right, although actually I 1091 00:47:20,850 --> 00:47:23,141 should say this, other people having much larger stacks 1092 00:47:23,141 --> 00:47:25,950 than me is actually an incentive to go all-in. 1093 00:47:25,950 --> 00:47:29,340 The reason being, it's possible-- 1094 00:47:29,340 --> 00:47:32,640 let's say you go all-in and then someone calls, and then 1095 00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:36,030 another guy re-raises all-in and the first guy who called 1096 00:47:36,030 --> 00:47:37,430 folded. 1097 00:47:37,430 --> 00:47:41,370 Then what would happen is, you're still all-in. 1098 00:47:41,370 --> 00:47:44,520 And if you win the pot, you now triple up instead of double up, 1099 00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:46,852 and you still only have to beat one hand. 1100 00:47:46,852 --> 00:47:48,220 Did that make sense? 1101 00:47:48,220 --> 00:47:50,700 I can draw it if it didn't make sense. 1102 00:47:50,700 --> 00:47:53,370 So you go all-in for $5,400. 1103 00:47:53,370 --> 00:47:56,542 So let's say this guy calls for $5,400. 1104 00:47:56,542 --> 00:47:57,750 Let me use a different color. 1105 00:47:57,750 --> 00:48:00,060 This guy calls for $5,400. 1106 00:48:00,060 --> 00:48:04,080 And then let's say this guy goes all-in for $12,000. 1107 00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:05,330 And then this guy folds-- 1108 00:48:05,330 --> 00:48:06,810 which he shouldn't be doing because he definitely has 1109 00:48:06,810 --> 00:48:08,790 odds to call, but let's say he does fold. 1110 00:48:08,790 --> 00:48:11,190 Then the situation is great because how the rules work 1111 00:48:11,190 --> 00:48:12,870 is, now the pot-- 1112 00:48:12,870 --> 00:48:17,820 so now this guy is going to get back $6,600. 1113 00:48:17,820 --> 00:48:22,230 And the pot-- But $5,400 of his is still in the middle. 1114 00:48:22,230 --> 00:48:24,780 And essentially, there's this $5,400, this $5,400, 1115 00:48:24,780 --> 00:48:26,490 and your $5,400. 1116 00:48:26,490 --> 00:48:28,747 And you're only against his hand. 1117 00:48:28,747 --> 00:48:30,330 And if you win, you get all the money. 1118 00:48:30,330 --> 00:48:32,860 So you actually triple up instead of double up. 1119 00:48:32,860 --> 00:48:35,080 So that's actually a good incentive. 1120 00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,500 But yeah, that's a good observation. 1121 00:48:37,500 --> 00:48:38,624 Yeah? 1122 00:48:38,624 --> 00:48:41,287 AUDIENCE: Because your going all-in is profitable 1123 00:48:41,287 --> 00:48:43,370 because there's a high probability of other people 1124 00:48:43,370 --> 00:48:43,950 folding. 1125 00:48:43,950 --> 00:48:45,866 But if two people call or three people call, 1126 00:48:45,866 --> 00:48:49,520 you get a lot of people can call it, 1127 00:48:49,520 --> 00:48:51,832 and then your odds are not very good when they call. 1128 00:48:51,832 --> 00:48:52,810 WILL MA: Right, right. 1129 00:48:52,810 --> 00:48:54,018 Yeah, that is relevant, yeah. 1130 00:48:54,018 --> 00:48:56,790 So multiple people can call, but the Nash 1131 00:48:56,790 --> 00:48:59,350 ranges that I presented do take that into account. 1132 00:48:59,350 --> 00:49:03,050 So the Nash ranges, the Nash calculations 1133 00:49:03,050 --> 00:49:05,786 do take into account that multiple people can call. 1134 00:49:05,786 --> 00:49:07,770 You have to look carefully at the stack sizes. 1135 00:49:07,770 --> 00:49:08,682 Yeah? 1136 00:49:08,682 --> 00:49:10,510 AUDIENCE: [? They now only ?] have $2,100? 1137 00:49:10,510 --> 00:49:11,430 WILL MA: Right, good. 1138 00:49:11,430 --> 00:49:12,390 Good. 1139 00:49:12,390 --> 00:49:15,320 Damn, I wish I'd brought one of those gift certificates. 1140 00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,064 I still have some, but OK. 1141 00:49:17,064 --> 00:49:18,480 So this is actually very relevant. 1142 00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:20,270 And I swept this under the rug, but let 1143 00:49:20,270 --> 00:49:22,410 me clear the annotation. 1144 00:49:22,410 --> 00:49:25,050 The Big Blind only has four bets, 1145 00:49:25,050 --> 00:49:29,160 only has 4 Big Blinds in this situation. 1146 00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:32,100 And they're basically guaranteed to call. 1147 00:49:32,100 --> 00:49:33,600 That's not a terrible result for you 1148 00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,485 because there's a good chance that just have absolute trash, 1149 00:49:35,485 --> 00:49:37,670 and Queen-7 suited is better than them. 1150 00:49:37,670 --> 00:49:41,190 But it's still worse than being able to steal the Big 1151 00:49:41,190 --> 00:49:42,330 Blind for free. 1152 00:49:42,330 --> 00:49:44,910 So the fact that the Big Blind is so short here 1153 00:49:44,910 --> 00:49:47,310 that they're basically almost guaranteed to call, 1154 00:49:47,310 --> 00:49:50,850 maybe they'll fold 3-2 offsuit is really, really bad for you. 1155 00:49:50,850 --> 00:49:53,400 Because your chances of just winning down-- 1156 00:49:53,400 --> 00:49:56,820 taking out the blinds without having to win an all-in 1157 00:49:56,820 --> 00:49:59,340 is a lot lower. 1158 00:49:59,340 --> 00:50:01,139 That make sense to everyone? 1159 00:50:01,139 --> 00:50:03,180 So it's hard to do when you're just starting out, 1160 00:50:03,180 --> 00:50:04,770 but it's good to pay attention to all 1161 00:50:04,770 --> 00:50:06,180 the different stack sizes. 1162 00:50:06,180 --> 00:50:08,950 And if there's someone behind, someone in the blinds 1163 00:50:08,950 --> 00:50:12,000 who is very short and who's almost guaranteed to go all-in, 1164 00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:15,090 then you should be a lot less incentivized to try 1165 00:50:15,090 --> 00:50:18,160 to steal the blinds. 1166 00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:18,940 Yeah? 1167 00:50:18,940 --> 00:50:20,898 All right guys, I'm going to get started again. 1168 00:50:23,965 --> 00:50:28,770 So I'm going to give you a few more examples of extrapolation. 1169 00:50:28,770 --> 00:50:32,100 I know this is a bit boring, but to be honest, I think-- 1170 00:50:32,100 --> 00:50:34,860 this is less exciting than playing postflop, and reading 1171 00:50:34,860 --> 00:50:38,080 your opponent, and trying to read what cards they have, 1172 00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:39,570 and trying to make tricky bluffs. 1173 00:50:39,570 --> 00:50:43,170 But really, in tournaments, the best skill 1174 00:50:43,170 --> 00:50:45,840 you can have when just learning, just starting out 1175 00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,090 is knowing when to go all-in. 1176 00:50:48,090 --> 00:50:51,960 Because even if you're pretty good at it versus very good 1177 00:50:51,960 --> 00:50:54,810 at it, the fact that, because most hands just 1178 00:50:54,810 --> 00:50:56,940 come down to going all-in preflop, 1179 00:50:56,940 --> 00:50:59,790 if you can increase your equity every time 1180 00:50:59,790 --> 00:51:05,580 you do this by even 1%, that's a huge game in terms of how 1181 00:51:05,580 --> 00:51:07,790 profitable a player you'll be. 1182 00:51:07,790 --> 00:51:09,240 So yeah, it's a bit boring. 1183 00:51:09,240 --> 00:51:10,840 But just try to bear with me. 1184 00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,250 This is, like, the most important skill 1185 00:51:13,250 --> 00:51:16,290 in tournaments, essentially. 1186 00:51:16,290 --> 00:51:20,250 So I wrote down on this graph the most number 1187 00:51:20,250 --> 00:51:23,580 of Big Blinds I'm willing to risk all-in 1188 00:51:23,580 --> 00:51:24,590 for from each position. 1189 00:51:24,590 --> 00:51:26,340 So I want to sort of illustrate a concept. 1190 00:51:26,340 --> 00:51:29,060 These numbers are actually quite ambitious, by the way. 1191 00:51:29,060 --> 00:51:30,990 I think I made this maybe four years ago 1192 00:51:30,990 --> 00:51:34,320 when I was trying to play exploitatively against the fact 1193 00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,530 that the average player was too tight, 1194 00:51:36,530 --> 00:51:41,130 the average player was not willing to call often enough. 1195 00:51:41,130 --> 00:51:45,300 So you would be shove more hands than Nash 1196 00:51:45,300 --> 00:51:46,960 because most players don't call enough. 1197 00:51:46,960 --> 00:51:49,610 Nowadays, I think people are getting closer to Nash, 1198 00:51:49,610 --> 00:51:52,275 so you can't really be this ambitious anymore. 1199 00:51:52,275 --> 00:51:53,900 All these numbers should go down a bit. 1200 00:51:53,900 --> 00:51:55,941 You shouldn't be going all-in for that many bets. 1201 00:51:55,941 --> 00:51:58,730 But nonetheless, the graphs illustrate the same point. 1202 00:51:58,730 --> 00:52:01,410 So I roughly-- I wrote down in black 1203 00:52:01,410 --> 00:52:03,480 how many bets I'm willing to risk 1204 00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,390 from each position with Ace-4 offsuit. 1205 00:52:06,390 --> 00:52:10,500 So notice that from the button it's huge, it's 22. 1206 00:52:10,500 --> 00:52:13,170 But under the gun, it's a lot smaller-- it's only seven. 1207 00:52:13,170 --> 00:52:20,010 And roughly, it decreases as a 1 over x, 1208 00:52:20,010 --> 00:52:22,260 curve as a inverse curve. 1209 00:52:22,260 --> 00:52:25,110 And that's sort of intuitive because if you 1210 00:52:25,110 --> 00:52:27,990 shove from the button, you need to be the best out of three 1211 00:52:27,990 --> 00:52:29,580 hands, so it's like 1 over 3. 1212 00:52:29,580 --> 00:52:32,163 And then you got to be the best out of four, so it's 1 over 4, 1213 00:52:32,163 --> 00:52:34,300 and then 1 over 5, 1 over 6, et cetera. 1214 00:52:34,300 --> 00:52:35,970 So the graph is roughly-- 1215 00:52:35,970 --> 00:52:38,670 I mean, I don't know, let's say 88 1216 00:52:38,670 --> 00:52:40,590 over number of hands remaining. 1217 00:52:40,590 --> 00:52:43,680 Or I don't know, something like that. 1218 00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:47,626 But I want to show a similar curve with 7-6 suited. 1219 00:52:47,626 --> 00:52:49,500 So what do you notice about these two curves? 1220 00:52:52,272 --> 00:52:54,230 AUDIENCE: Looks more linear than the other one. 1221 00:52:54,230 --> 00:52:54,855 WILL MA: Right. 1222 00:52:54,855 --> 00:52:56,920 So this one is very curved. 1223 00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:59,050 This one is like 1 of x. 1224 00:52:59,050 --> 00:53:00,940 This one is maybe there's like-- 1225 00:53:00,940 --> 00:53:03,760 this one it's a lot flatter, right? 1226 00:53:03,760 --> 00:53:08,830 It's 9.5 under the gun, which is more than 7.7 for Ace-4. 1227 00:53:08,830 --> 00:53:14,310 But Ace-4, it's 22 from the button, 1228 00:53:14,310 --> 00:53:18,370 whereas for 7-6, it's only 19. 1229 00:53:18,370 --> 00:53:21,650 So the thing is, these two hands are a bit different. 1230 00:53:21,650 --> 00:53:27,040 So essentially with Ace-4 off, it's 1231 00:53:27,040 --> 00:53:30,730 a hand that does poorly against good hands, 1232 00:53:30,730 --> 00:53:34,060 but well against bad hands because against a bad hand, 1233 00:53:34,060 --> 00:53:35,629 your Ace high is going to be good. 1234 00:53:35,629 --> 00:53:38,170 And against a good hand, you're always going to be dominated. 1235 00:53:38,170 --> 00:53:41,650 Like, if they call with an Ace-Jack, or a pair of 7s, 1236 00:53:41,650 --> 00:53:43,720 you're going to be at 30/70, right 1237 00:53:43,720 --> 00:53:47,530 Whereas with 7-6, even if they have Aces, I mean, it's bad, 1238 00:53:47,530 --> 00:53:49,330 but it's the best hand against Aces. 1239 00:53:49,330 --> 00:53:53,291 But basically 7-6, you're going to be better on average. 1240 00:53:53,291 --> 00:53:55,540 If they call with Ace-King, it's not a good situation, 1241 00:53:55,540 --> 00:54:00,000 but it's much better than if you had Ace-4, 1242 00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:03,250 whereas if they have 8-2 offsuit, 1243 00:54:03,250 --> 00:54:05,500 which is a terrible hand, that actually, theoretically 1244 00:54:05,500 --> 00:54:06,670 is ahead of yours. 1245 00:54:06,670 --> 00:54:10,375 So what's the most important thing about 7-6 1246 00:54:10,375 --> 00:54:12,310 suited and going on with it? 1247 00:54:12,310 --> 00:54:14,290 Essentially it's having a lot of chips, 1248 00:54:14,290 --> 00:54:16,300 it's having a large stack. 1249 00:54:16,300 --> 00:54:21,820 Because you want them to fold all of their trash hands. 1250 00:54:21,820 --> 00:54:24,910 And it's good when they're not going to call you very often. 1251 00:54:24,910 --> 00:54:26,600 So you want to have a lot of bets. 1252 00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:29,230 Whereas for Ace-4, the most important thing is-- 1253 00:54:29,230 --> 00:54:32,012 you don't mind if they call, as they call with a bad hand. 1254 00:54:32,012 --> 00:54:33,970 So the most important thing you want with Ace-4 1255 00:54:33,970 --> 00:54:37,000 is, you want to be later in position so that you're 1256 00:54:37,000 --> 00:54:40,210 against your hands so that there's less of a chance 1257 00:54:40,210 --> 00:54:44,170 that someone behind is going to pick up Ace-Jack or pocket 10s. 1258 00:54:44,170 --> 00:54:47,050 So when you're extrapolating slash interpolating, 1259 00:54:47,050 --> 00:54:49,450 try to remember this principle. 1260 00:54:49,450 --> 00:54:52,270 So with a suited connector hand, it 1261 00:54:52,270 --> 00:54:55,920 matters a lot more how many bets you have. 1262 00:54:55,920 --> 00:55:01,030 Whereas with a hand with two unsuited but sort of big cards, 1263 00:55:01,030 --> 00:55:04,130 like Ace-4 offsuit, King-8 offsuit, 1264 00:55:04,130 --> 00:55:06,340 I guess Queen-7 offsuit or whatever, 1265 00:55:06,340 --> 00:55:08,500 the thing that matters most is having few players 1266 00:55:08,500 --> 00:55:09,400 left to act behind. 1267 00:55:13,930 --> 00:55:17,070 So I talked to you a lot about how do you initiate all-ins 1268 00:55:17,070 --> 00:55:18,730 from preflop. 1269 00:55:18,730 --> 00:55:20,920 So what about calling other people's all-ins? 1270 00:55:26,702 --> 00:55:28,660 So another thing that I sometimes see people do 1271 00:55:28,660 --> 00:55:32,500 is fold with ridiculously good odds preflop. 1272 00:55:32,500 --> 00:55:35,590 And similarly how you can shove any two cards preflop, 1273 00:55:35,590 --> 00:55:39,490 you can also call a lot preflop because you'll always 1274 00:55:39,490 --> 00:55:42,280 have some equity. 1275 00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:44,560 So yeah, it's difficult to get less than 30% 1276 00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:48,070 equity preflop no matter what your cards are, 1277 00:55:48,070 --> 00:55:51,160 unless your opponent has a really strong range. 1278 00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:54,220 Like they're really tight, and you know Jacks plus an Ace-King 1279 00:55:54,220 --> 00:55:55,580 or something. 1280 00:55:55,580 --> 00:55:57,440 It's difficult. to have less than 30% 1281 00:55:57,440 --> 00:55:59,610 equity if you have an Ace in your hand, right? 1282 00:55:59,610 --> 00:56:01,720 Because if you have an Ace, then you're 1283 00:56:01,720 --> 00:56:05,200 either going to have an over card, at least, to their pair, 1284 00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:06,430 or be dominated. 1285 00:56:06,430 --> 00:56:08,380 But both of those are still 30/70s. 1286 00:56:08,380 --> 00:56:10,360 Only if they have Aces are you actually 1287 00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:13,990 in a really bad situation. 1288 00:56:13,990 --> 00:56:16,330 So I wanted to show you a hand here 1289 00:56:16,330 --> 00:56:19,000 that looks maybe a bit like bad play to some of you, 1290 00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:21,840 but I think it's very reasonable play. 1291 00:56:21,840 --> 00:56:25,210 So we have 9-8 suited, we have 15 Big Blinds 1292 00:56:25,210 --> 00:56:26,620 so we don't go all-in, right? 1293 00:56:26,620 --> 00:56:27,310 Which is fine. 1294 00:56:27,310 --> 00:56:29,620 We may get $1.600. 1295 00:56:29,620 --> 00:56:32,950 And then it's folded to the Big Blind, 1296 00:56:32,950 --> 00:56:39,910 but the Big Blind goes all-in for 10 Big Blinds. 1297 00:56:39,910 --> 00:56:42,280 So normally, if the Big Blind had covered us, 1298 00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,560 if they had 15 Big Blinds, you would probably 1299 00:56:44,560 --> 00:56:46,570 fold because you have 9 high. 1300 00:56:46,570 --> 00:56:50,110 You probably-- you don't have enough odds to call. 1301 00:56:50,110 --> 00:56:52,660 But in this specific case, the effective stack size 1302 00:56:52,660 --> 00:56:54,400 is not 15 Big Blinds, right? 1303 00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:57,065 They only have 10 Big Blinds, so the effective stack size 1304 00:56:57,065 --> 00:56:58,580 is 10 Big Blinds. 1305 00:56:58,580 --> 00:57:01,450 So if you do the math, when the effective stack 1306 00:57:01,450 --> 00:57:05,440 size is only 10 Big Blinds, basically you 1307 00:57:05,440 --> 00:57:08,530 have enough equity to call. 1308 00:57:08,530 --> 00:57:11,860 Even if they had 12 Big Blinds, maybe it's very borderline. 1309 00:57:11,860 --> 00:57:15,520 But even if they have 12 Big Blinds, roughly speaking, 1310 00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:17,320 you have enough equity to call, right? 1311 00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:19,180 This is sort of the same calculation as me 1312 00:57:19,180 --> 00:57:21,820 saying, if you had 12 or less Big Blinds 1313 00:57:21,820 --> 00:57:24,070 and you raise, and someone goes all-in, 1314 00:57:24,070 --> 00:57:25,547 you basically have to call. 1315 00:57:25,547 --> 00:57:27,130 This is sort of a similar calculation. 1316 00:57:27,130 --> 00:57:27,963 It's the same thing. 1317 00:57:27,963 --> 00:57:31,540 You raised, someone went all-in, it's effectively 12 Big Blinds, 1318 00:57:31,540 --> 00:57:32,320 and you can call. 1319 00:57:32,320 --> 00:57:34,010 So this is a totally reasonable play. 1320 00:57:34,010 --> 00:57:36,870 And then you just call. 1321 00:57:36,870 --> 00:57:39,700 If you do the math, you need 37% equity to call. 1322 00:57:39,700 --> 00:57:42,970 It's possible in some corner cases you can convince yourself 1323 00:57:42,970 --> 00:57:46,450 that you don't have 37% equity, but for the most part, 1324 00:57:46,450 --> 00:57:50,689 I see a lot more bigger mistakes by people folding this spot. 1325 00:57:50,689 --> 00:57:52,980 If you call, you're never really making a huge mistake. 1326 00:57:52,980 --> 00:57:55,500 OK, fine, if they're sort of tight, 1327 00:57:55,500 --> 00:57:59,109 maybe you only had 35% equity, and you needed 37. 1328 00:57:59,109 --> 00:58:00,150 You made a small mistake. 1329 00:58:00,150 --> 00:58:02,580 But there are situations similar to this 1330 00:58:02,580 --> 00:58:07,940 where you might have 45% equity and you only 37% equity. 1331 00:58:07,940 --> 00:58:09,840 So it's a huge mistake. 1332 00:58:09,840 --> 00:58:12,210 Folding can be a big mistake, but calling is rarely 1333 00:58:12,210 --> 00:58:17,460 a huge mistake when it's 12 Big Blinds or less. 1334 00:58:17,460 --> 00:58:19,980 So any hand that we would raise here in the first place, 1335 00:58:19,980 --> 00:58:22,320 we probably would have enough equity to call. 1336 00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,950 If I had 7-2 offsuit here, I probably would not call. 1337 00:58:25,950 --> 00:58:28,890 But I would not raise here with 7-2 offsuit. 1338 00:58:28,890 --> 00:58:31,650 So any that you would've chosen to open 1339 00:58:31,650 --> 00:58:35,850 here, which is about 30% of hands, or 25% percent of hands 1340 00:58:35,850 --> 00:58:38,157 I think you can call. 1341 00:58:38,157 --> 00:58:40,740 Here's another situation that we sort of talked about already. 1342 00:58:40,740 --> 00:58:43,920 You have 4 Big Blinds, and you had to pay a Big Blind. 1343 00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,160 Basically you pretty much have to play close to any two cards 1344 00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:48,970 in this spot. 1345 00:58:48,970 --> 00:58:52,410 If you do the calculation, right, you only need to call-- 1346 00:58:52,410 --> 00:58:54,905 I mean, calling is equivalent to going all-in, sort of. 1347 00:58:54,905 --> 00:58:56,280 If you go all-in, you know you're 1348 00:58:56,280 --> 00:58:59,062 getting called because they're going 1349 00:58:59,062 --> 00:59:04,200 to have almost four to one odds, so they're going to call. 1350 00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:06,210 So essentially the calculation is, 1351 00:59:06,210 --> 00:59:09,150 do I want to wager my entire stack on this hand? 1352 00:59:09,150 --> 00:59:12,690 And you're risking 3 Big Blinds for a total pot 1353 00:59:12,690 --> 00:59:14,760 of 9 and 1/2 Big Blinds. 1354 00:59:14,760 --> 00:59:18,000 So essentially, you only need 30% equity to call. 1355 00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:24,120 And 30% equity is very easy to have preflop, essentially. 1356 00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:26,240 So basically you have to play any two cards. 1357 00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:30,050 Queen-8 off is way more than good enough. 1358 00:59:30,050 --> 00:59:32,400 Yeah, so this is basically the calculation 1359 00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,410 I just went through. 1360 00:59:34,410 --> 00:59:37,890 And yeah, like here I think I would probably 1361 00:59:37,890 --> 00:59:40,380 play 95% of hands. 1362 00:59:40,380 --> 00:59:43,350 I think I'll fold 3-2 offsuit, 4-2 offsuit, 1363 00:59:43,350 --> 00:59:45,660 but I'll probably play any hand with a card that's 1364 00:59:45,660 --> 00:59:49,470 10 or higher, and I'll probably play every suited hand. 1365 00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:56,780 So let's talk a bit of re-raising all-in preflop now. 1366 00:59:56,780 --> 00:59:59,749 And all the situations I showed you were just going all-in, 1367 00:59:59,749 --> 01:00:00,915 and someone calling preflop. 1368 01:00:05,310 --> 01:00:06,330 So I wanted to show you. 1369 01:00:06,330 --> 01:00:08,172 So don't do this, don't call preflop. 1370 01:00:08,172 --> 01:00:09,630 I already talked to you about this, 1371 01:00:09,630 --> 01:00:12,780 but especially when you have 10 Big Blinds. 1372 01:00:12,780 --> 01:00:15,450 So once again here, don't just raise when you only have 10 1373 01:00:15,450 --> 01:00:16,350 Big Blinds. 1374 01:00:16,350 --> 01:00:19,800 That's less than 12, so you can go all-in. 1375 01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:24,800 Yeah, so you basically either want to go all-in or fold. 1376 01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:27,360 But I want to talk about raising now. 1377 01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:31,290 So why is this so bad, but this is OK 1378 01:00:31,290 --> 01:00:32,780 when we have more Big Blinds? 1379 01:00:32,780 --> 01:00:40,530 So now everyone has 19 and 1/2 Big Blinds. 1380 01:00:40,530 --> 01:00:43,380 So why is this OK? 1381 01:00:43,380 --> 01:00:45,282 The main reason is because-- 1382 01:00:45,282 --> 01:00:47,490 so in the first case, right-- so I talked about this. 1383 01:00:47,490 --> 01:00:49,920 If you get caught, if someone goes all-in, 1384 01:00:49,920 --> 01:00:51,460 basically you have to call anyway. 1385 01:00:51,460 --> 01:00:53,460 So you might as well go all-in yourself 1386 01:00:53,460 --> 01:00:56,580 because you're not getting away if they pick up a good hand. 1387 01:00:56,580 --> 01:00:59,226 So that's the same calculation. 1388 01:00:59,226 --> 01:01:00,600 I'm just going to skip that part. 1389 01:01:00,600 --> 01:01:01,860 It's the same calculation. 1390 01:01:01,860 --> 01:01:04,660 Essentially it's just saying there's no point 1391 01:01:04,660 --> 01:01:08,220 to not go all-in because if someone else goes all-in, 1392 01:01:08,220 --> 01:01:10,752 we're essentially roped into calling anyway. 1393 01:01:10,752 --> 01:01:12,210 So the second case, we can get out. 1394 01:01:12,210 --> 01:01:13,764 We can fold. 1395 01:01:13,764 --> 01:01:15,180 So let's keep this in mind, right? 1396 01:01:15,180 --> 01:01:16,846 So in this case, we can definitely fold. 1397 01:01:16,846 --> 01:01:19,180 So we can do the calculation. 1398 01:01:19,180 --> 01:01:21,930 In this case, we need to call 17 Big Blinds 1399 01:01:21,930 --> 01:01:24,150 to win a total pot of 40.5. 1400 01:01:24,150 --> 01:01:26,140 We need 42% equity. 1401 01:01:26,140 --> 01:01:27,960 And we almost certainly don't have this 1402 01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:30,690 because we raised from early position, 1403 01:01:30,690 --> 01:01:33,000 they went all-in against an early position raise, 1404 01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:35,070 so they probably have a good hand. 1405 01:01:35,070 --> 01:01:37,790 We're almost certainly going to be a 30/70. 1406 01:01:41,550 --> 01:01:44,220 So let's look at whether we call or re-raise. 1407 01:01:44,220 --> 01:01:46,420 So for re-raise sizing, so now let's 1408 01:01:46,420 --> 01:01:48,180 put ourselves in his shoes. 1409 01:01:48,180 --> 01:01:51,660 If he's re-raising-- sort of the same principles 1410 01:01:51,660 --> 01:01:53,430 apply when you're re-raising. 1411 01:01:53,430 --> 01:01:56,250 So the advantage of re-raising to a small size 1412 01:01:56,250 --> 01:01:59,260 is that, what if it's deep enough where he could re-raise, 1413 01:01:59,260 --> 01:02:03,110 and we could four bet, re-raise again, and go all-in. 1414 01:02:03,110 --> 01:02:05,820 Then they could fold, if they were intending to do that. 1415 01:02:05,820 --> 01:02:07,710 The advantage of re-raising to a large size 1416 01:02:07,710 --> 01:02:10,560 is you deny your opponent the odds to call profitably. 1417 01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:12,780 And once again, if your re-raise size 1418 01:02:12,780 --> 01:02:15,000 would cause you to commit a critical portion 1419 01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:16,920 of your stack such that you can't escape, 1420 01:02:16,920 --> 01:02:18,420 you're going to go all-in anyway, 1421 01:02:18,420 --> 01:02:19,980 then you might as well just re-raise all-in. 1422 01:02:19,980 --> 01:02:21,605 So it's essentially the same principle, 1423 01:02:21,605 --> 01:02:25,190 but let's see this in action. 1424 01:02:25,190 --> 01:02:26,904 So this is what you don't want to do. 1425 01:02:26,904 --> 01:02:28,320 And I see some players doing this, 1426 01:02:28,320 --> 01:02:30,340 which is fine because I've is never really explained 1427 01:02:30,340 --> 01:02:31,040 this in class. 1428 01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:34,800 But if someone raises, let's say to $2,000, 1429 01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:37,237 you don't really want to just click the raise button. 1430 01:02:37,237 --> 01:02:39,570 This is what would happen if you click the raise button. 1431 01:02:39,570 --> 01:02:43,980 Because he raised $1,200-- from $800 to $2,000. 1432 01:02:43,980 --> 01:02:45,460 So if you click the raise button, 1433 01:02:45,460 --> 01:02:47,209 this is the minimum amount you could lose. 1434 01:02:47,209 --> 01:02:49,534 You can raise it to $2,000 plus $1,200. 1435 01:02:49,534 --> 01:02:51,450 But if you look at the odds you're giving him, 1436 01:02:51,450 --> 01:02:53,060 it's actually ludicrous. 1437 01:02:53,060 --> 01:02:55,600 They have to call $1,200. 1438 01:02:55,600 --> 01:02:58,110 So they would have to call $1,200, 1439 01:02:58,110 --> 01:03:04,170 and the pot will be $5,000, $5,200 $6,400-- 1440 01:03:04,170 --> 01:03:05,844 essentially $7,200. 1441 01:03:05,844 --> 01:03:06,870 So it's $6,100, right? 1442 01:03:06,870 --> 01:03:10,860 They got to call $1,200 into a pot of $7,200. 1443 01:03:10,860 --> 01:03:14,090 So this size is basically way too small. 1444 01:03:14,090 --> 01:03:16,492 So how big do you want to make it? 1445 01:03:16,492 --> 01:03:22,700 So roughly speaking, you want to make it 2.5 times their open. 1446 01:03:22,700 --> 01:03:25,830 I think that's a reasonable rule. 1447 01:03:25,830 --> 01:03:28,350 There's a lot of factors that can affect this, 1448 01:03:28,350 --> 01:03:30,200 but if you're not sure what to do, 1449 01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:32,540 a reasonable rule for re-raising preflop 1450 01:03:32,540 --> 01:03:36,020 is 2.5 times what the original guy raised. 1451 01:03:36,020 --> 01:03:37,520 If you're out of position, you might 1452 01:03:37,520 --> 01:03:39,110 want to raise a bit more because there's 1453 01:03:39,110 --> 01:03:40,790 more incentive for them to call if they 1454 01:03:40,790 --> 01:03:44,090 can play in position postflop. 1455 01:03:44,090 --> 01:03:46,340 But I think in this specific spot, this $5,000 1456 01:03:46,340 --> 01:03:49,405 is a good size. 1457 01:03:49,405 --> 01:03:52,270 I'm going to skip to this slide. 1458 01:03:52,270 --> 01:03:55,870 But in this case actually-- 1459 01:03:55,870 --> 01:03:57,550 can we see our stack size? 1460 01:03:57,550 --> 01:04:02,880 So our stack size is only $20,000. 1461 01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:07,450 So in this case, I think going on, it's a bit big. 1462 01:04:07,450 --> 01:04:10,670 So the thing is, if you're going to re-raise, 1463 01:04:10,670 --> 01:04:12,555 it's the same principle again where 1464 01:04:12,555 --> 01:04:17,220 if the amount you re-raise to is more than a quarter 1465 01:04:17,220 --> 01:04:20,400 of your stack, which sort of means you're committed 1466 01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:23,680 and you can't escape, then you might as well just 1467 01:04:23,680 --> 01:04:24,900 go all-in yourself. 1468 01:04:24,900 --> 01:04:28,980 So I'd say in this hand, if you had less than $18,000, 1469 01:04:28,980 --> 01:04:30,100 I would just go all-in. 1470 01:04:30,100 --> 01:04:32,220 Because you can't really escape. 1471 01:04:32,220 --> 01:04:35,310 Even in this specific case where you have $20,000, 1472 01:04:35,310 --> 01:04:38,160 I don't think it's terrible to just go all-in instead 1473 01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:40,980 of making it only $5,000 because it's pretty hard to fold 1474 01:04:40,980 --> 01:04:44,250 a hand is good as Ace-King, even if you make it $5,000, 1475 01:04:44,250 --> 01:04:48,210 and then he goes all-in for $20,000. 1476 01:04:48,210 --> 01:04:51,360 But I think $20,000 is enough that you can make it $5,000. 1477 01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:53,130 And you can do this with your good hands. 1478 01:04:53,130 --> 01:04:54,838 You can also do this with your bad hands, 1479 01:04:54,838 --> 01:04:56,910 sometimes as a bluff to balance it out. 1480 01:04:56,910 --> 01:05:01,460 And you can fold when you do have a bluff and he goes on. 1481 01:05:01,460 --> 01:05:05,940 So that's roughly the sizing you want to make at preflop. 1482 01:05:05,940 --> 01:05:08,100 And another thing I want to say is, why 1483 01:05:08,100 --> 01:05:11,360 is calling a preflop raise OK? 1484 01:05:11,360 --> 01:05:14,130 So I said in the first class, if no one has entered the pot, 1485 01:05:14,130 --> 01:05:15,810 and you're just attacking the Blinds, 1486 01:05:15,810 --> 01:05:17,227 you always want to raise. 1487 01:05:17,227 --> 01:05:19,310 You always want to raise to give yourself a chance 1488 01:05:19,310 --> 01:05:20,830 to win the Blinds for free. 1489 01:05:20,830 --> 01:05:23,730 You don't want the Blinds to be able to see the flop for free. 1490 01:05:23,730 --> 01:05:26,340 But if someone has already raised, 1491 01:05:26,340 --> 01:05:27,750 I think it's OK to call. 1492 01:05:27,750 --> 01:05:30,030 I mean, a hand like Ace-King is sort of too good, 1493 01:05:30,030 --> 01:05:32,820 but if you have an Ace-Jack suited or Ace-Queen suited, 1494 01:05:32,820 --> 01:05:35,280 I think just calling is fine. 1495 01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:38,210 So why is this? 1496 01:05:38,210 --> 01:05:42,270 So it's because-- the reason why, in the first case, 1497 01:05:42,270 --> 01:05:47,660 there's no real advantage to not raising, just calling 1498 01:05:47,660 --> 01:05:51,510 is because if a Big Blind has a good hand, 1499 01:05:51,510 --> 01:05:53,520 they can still raise anyway. 1500 01:05:53,520 --> 01:05:55,170 So it doesn't matter. 1501 01:05:55,170 --> 01:05:57,810 But in this case, there isn't a huge incentive 1502 01:05:57,810 --> 01:05:59,370 to not re-raise, right? 1503 01:05:59,370 --> 01:06:02,280 What is the huge incentive here? 1504 01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:03,240 So let me go back here. 1505 01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:06,120 What's the huge incentive to just call for $2,000 1506 01:06:06,120 --> 01:06:10,740 instead of make it $5,000 is, if you make it $5,000, 1507 01:06:10,740 --> 01:06:13,770 then you give him the option to go all-in, right? 1508 01:06:13,770 --> 01:06:15,495 This is a huge difference. 1509 01:06:15,495 --> 01:06:18,146 In the case where you're just raising the Big Blind, 1510 01:06:18,146 --> 01:06:19,020 they can't go all-in. 1511 01:06:19,020 --> 01:06:20,850 But here you're giving him an option. 1512 01:06:20,850 --> 01:06:22,350 So that's why you just want to call sometimes 1513 01:06:22,350 --> 01:06:24,475 so that they can't have the option of going all-in. 1514 01:06:28,260 --> 01:06:31,210 So this is a good example. 1515 01:06:31,210 --> 01:06:34,140 So this is now a different scenario, but it's very-- 1516 01:06:34,140 --> 01:06:35,910 the Blinds are only 25/50, and players 1517 01:06:35,910 --> 01:06:42,130 have $8,000, which is, I guess, 160 Big Blinds. 1518 01:06:42,130 --> 01:06:46,590 And here, calling is definitely a positive expectancy play 1519 01:06:46,590 --> 01:06:48,902 because you're in position, it's very, very deep, 1520 01:06:48,902 --> 01:06:50,610 there's a lot of money still to play for, 1521 01:06:50,610 --> 01:06:53,026 and you're in position for all the rest of the hand, which 1522 01:06:53,026 --> 01:06:54,280 is great. 1523 01:06:54,280 --> 01:06:56,730 This is a good play. 1524 01:06:56,730 --> 01:07:01,380 So if you raise in this spot, it could lead to disaster, right? 1525 01:07:01,380 --> 01:07:03,540 So what happens here is you raise, 1526 01:07:03,540 --> 01:07:06,770 and then now hijack minus one, the guy who originally raised, 1527 01:07:06,770 --> 01:07:09,130 they now have an option to re-raise again, 1528 01:07:09,130 --> 01:07:10,300 which is what they do. 1529 01:07:10,300 --> 01:07:11,840 And now it's just terrible. 1530 01:07:11,840 --> 01:07:13,120 We basically have to fold. 1531 01:07:13,120 --> 01:07:15,150 We could call if we're feeling lucky, 1532 01:07:15,150 --> 01:07:18,180 but we basically have to fold. 1533 01:07:18,180 --> 01:07:21,660 And I think calling is actually, in reality, a reasonable play. 1534 01:07:21,660 --> 01:07:24,270 But basically, it's a much worse situation 1535 01:07:24,270 --> 01:07:27,047 than this one where we just called. 1536 01:07:27,047 --> 01:07:28,380 So yeah, that's a demonstration. 1537 01:07:28,380 --> 01:07:30,547 So if someone's already raised, you can just call. 1538 01:07:30,547 --> 01:07:32,380 I'm going to talk more about this next class 1539 01:07:32,380 --> 01:07:35,220 as well, a preflop strategy against someone 1540 01:07:35,220 --> 01:07:36,240 who's already raised. 1541 01:07:36,240 --> 01:07:38,900 But that's one thing to keep in mind. 1542 01:07:38,900 --> 01:07:40,650 Another thing I want to go through quickly 1543 01:07:40,650 --> 01:07:42,570 is how do you deal with callers. 1544 01:07:42,570 --> 01:07:44,310 So I've said that you should never 1545 01:07:44,310 --> 01:07:47,200 be just calling a pot when the pot hasn't been raised. 1546 01:07:47,200 --> 01:07:49,320 But people will inevitably make this mistake. 1547 01:07:49,320 --> 01:07:53,190 And usually if it's folded to someone, no intention to pot 1548 01:07:53,190 --> 01:07:55,440 yet, and someone just calls, we call-- 1549 01:07:55,440 --> 01:07:57,840 the term in poker is a limper, which 1550 01:07:57,840 --> 01:08:00,220 is a bit of a derogatory term. 1551 01:08:00,220 --> 01:08:02,146 Poker actually has a lot of derogatory terms, 1552 01:08:02,146 --> 01:08:03,270 which is a bit unfortunate. 1553 01:08:03,270 --> 01:08:07,290 But I sort of have the tough decision of either making up 1554 01:08:07,290 --> 01:08:10,590 my own terminology, but then if you go into the poker world, 1555 01:08:10,590 --> 01:08:12,300 no one understands what you're saying. 1556 01:08:12,300 --> 01:08:15,780 Or I use the same terminology, which is derogatory. 1557 01:08:15,780 --> 01:08:18,000 But OK. 1558 01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:20,350 So we're just going to call them limpers. 1559 01:08:20,350 --> 01:08:23,370 Either way, you need to be prepared and raise their limps. 1560 01:08:23,370 --> 01:08:27,560 But you do need to change your raise size if there's limpers. 1561 01:08:27,560 --> 01:08:30,229 So let's say normally when it's deep, 1562 01:08:30,229 --> 01:08:33,399 you decide to raise to 3 Big Blinds, which is fine. 1563 01:08:33,399 --> 01:08:35,193 I mean, I said raise to 2.25, but I think 1564 01:08:35,193 --> 01:08:36,359 it's fine if you raise to 3. 1565 01:08:36,359 --> 01:08:38,490 It doesn't matter that much when it's deep. 1566 01:08:38,490 --> 01:08:40,810 You can raise to 3 to play bigger pots. 1567 01:08:40,810 --> 01:08:42,660 But if there's a lot of limpers ahead, 1568 01:08:42,660 --> 01:08:46,052 then you want to make it more than 3 1569 01:08:46,052 --> 01:08:47,760 because there's already money in the pot. 1570 01:08:47,760 --> 01:08:49,560 So if you only raise it to 3, you're 1571 01:08:49,560 --> 01:08:52,047 actually giving them to good of odds to call. 1572 01:08:52,047 --> 01:08:53,880 So let's say in this case, I only make it 3. 1573 01:08:53,880 --> 01:08:57,930 If I only make it $150, then by the time 1574 01:08:57,930 --> 01:09:00,510 it's folded to the last guy, their odds of calling 1575 01:09:00,510 --> 01:09:06,420 are going to be-- they put in $100 into a pot of #375, right? 1576 01:09:06,420 --> 01:09:10,260 So that's like 3.75 to 1 odds, so that's too good. 1577 01:09:10,260 --> 01:09:13,640 So roughly, the odds-- the rule is, 1578 01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:15,569 take whatever size you were going to raise to, 1579 01:09:15,569 --> 01:09:17,660 and then add a Big Blind for each limper. 1580 01:09:17,660 --> 01:09:19,410 This essentially makes it so that the odds 1581 01:09:19,410 --> 01:09:20,710 are the same as before. 1582 01:09:20,710 --> 01:09:23,399 So in this case, if you were going to make it 3, 1583 01:09:23,399 --> 01:09:25,552 I would make it 3 plus 1 plus 1 plus 1 1584 01:09:25,552 --> 01:09:26,802 because there's three limpers. 1585 01:09:29,609 --> 01:09:32,880 And of course, if you only have 15 Big Blinds, 1586 01:09:32,880 --> 01:09:36,060 then in this case, instead of raising it to 6 Big Blinds, 1587 01:09:36,060 --> 01:09:38,370 you might as well just go all-in, right? 1588 01:09:38,370 --> 01:09:40,649 The fact that you only raise to 6 Big Blinds instead 1589 01:09:40,649 --> 01:09:43,380 of going all-in is predicated on you 1590 01:09:43,380 --> 01:09:46,310 having at least 25 [AUDIO OUT] to start the hand. 1591 01:09:46,310 --> 01:09:51,210 Or something where it's enough to escape if something 1592 01:09:51,210 --> 01:09:54,180 weird happens after. 1593 01:09:54,180 --> 01:09:57,270 I'm going to finish off showing you some more simple preflop 1594 01:09:57,270 --> 01:09:58,200 situations. 1595 01:09:58,200 --> 01:10:02,010 I think-- so the theme this is being boring. 1596 01:10:02,010 --> 01:10:04,350 Oh, I'm sorry about this slide. 1597 01:10:04,350 --> 01:10:07,360 So being boring, being simple, just playing 1598 01:10:07,360 --> 01:10:11,700 on simple probabilities and using calculators 1599 01:10:11,700 --> 01:10:13,770 can get you very far in poker. 1600 01:10:13,770 --> 01:10:16,624 And I will go through crazy bluffs 1601 01:10:16,624 --> 01:10:18,790 and exciting hand reads and stuff like that as well. 1602 01:10:18,790 --> 01:10:21,914 But this class, I wanted to stress the simple things 1603 01:10:21,914 --> 01:10:22,830 that I think are good. 1604 01:10:25,550 --> 01:10:29,540 So here, this is a situation. 1605 01:10:29,540 --> 01:10:31,215 So here you have 4-3 suited. 1606 01:10:34,120 --> 01:10:35,630 You're too scared to go all-in. 1607 01:10:35,630 --> 01:10:38,580 Can I raise to 2 Big Blinds as an alternative? 1608 01:10:38,580 --> 01:10:40,290 Oh, so you're the button. 1609 01:10:40,290 --> 01:10:42,510 So the button only has 8 Big Blinds. 1610 01:10:42,510 --> 01:10:44,390 They started the hand with $1,600, 1611 01:10:44,390 --> 01:10:50,040 and they make it $400 with only $1,200 behind. 1612 01:10:50,040 --> 01:10:52,200 So I want to show you why this can go wrong. 1613 01:10:52,200 --> 01:10:55,150 Why is it bad if you don't follow the all-in rule? 1614 01:10:55,150 --> 01:10:57,880 Because now let's say the Big Blind has 4-3 suited. 1615 01:10:57,880 --> 01:11:00,720 Well, if he went all in for 8 Big Blinds, 1616 01:11:00,720 --> 01:11:04,340 they would have to fold their 4 high. 1617 01:11:04,340 --> 01:11:06,540 I'm not going to run through the calculation again. 1618 01:11:06,540 --> 01:11:09,230 But the problem is now, if you make it 2 Big Blinds, 1619 01:11:09,230 --> 01:11:12,420 they could actually call your small raise with 4-3 suited. 1620 01:11:12,420 --> 01:11:15,063 And they have 4.5 to 1 odds, and that's definitely 1621 01:11:15,063 --> 01:11:16,146 good enough odds for them. 1622 01:11:22,260 --> 01:11:26,130 So if our hand has 40% equity against his range, 1623 01:11:26,130 --> 01:11:27,600 then it's going to be +EV. 1624 01:11:27,600 --> 01:11:30,870 So essentially they're going to call, 1625 01:11:30,870 --> 01:11:34,110 and they're not going to raise the 4-3 suited. 1626 01:11:34,110 --> 01:11:37,860 So basically they could-- so the fact that we didn't go all-in 1627 01:11:37,860 --> 01:11:39,360 gives them an option, here. 1628 01:11:39,360 --> 01:11:42,110 With their good hands, they can go all-in, 1629 01:11:42,110 --> 01:11:45,330 and rope us into getting all-in anyway when we're the button. 1630 01:11:45,330 --> 01:11:46,860 And with their bad hands, like 4-3 1631 01:11:46,860 --> 01:11:48,840 suited that they don't want to go all-in with, 1632 01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:51,180 they can still call and see a flop. 1633 01:11:51,180 --> 01:11:53,411 But the point is, we're essentially-- this 1634 01:11:53,411 --> 01:11:54,660 is essentially their strategy. 1635 01:11:54,660 --> 01:11:55,330 You can read it. 1636 01:11:55,330 --> 01:11:57,204 I'm not going to read through this slide now. 1637 01:11:57,204 --> 01:12:01,290 But the point is, we're giving them an opportunity to make 1638 01:12:01,290 --> 01:12:03,420 a better play than they otherwise could've. 1639 01:12:03,420 --> 01:12:05,880 If we just went all-in, the choice is theirs. 1640 01:12:05,880 --> 01:12:07,500 They either call or they fold. 1641 01:12:07,500 --> 01:12:10,140 But here, essentially they can take their best hands, 1642 01:12:10,140 --> 01:12:13,680 and they want to get all-in with and go all-in, and we call. 1643 01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:16,590 Or with their worst hands, like 4-3 suited 1644 01:12:16,590 --> 01:12:18,300 that can still call to see a flop, 1645 01:12:18,300 --> 01:12:20,132 they can call and see a flop. 1646 01:12:20,132 --> 01:12:21,840 And we're just letting them realize a lot 1647 01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:24,810 more equity than we need to. 1648 01:12:24,810 --> 01:12:26,100 So let's say, OK, fine. 1649 01:12:26,100 --> 01:12:28,650 If you want to get around that, you can make it $800. 1650 01:12:28,650 --> 01:12:31,994 And if we make it $800, it's more or less equivalent. 1651 01:12:31,994 --> 01:12:33,660 So if they were going to fold, then they 1652 01:12:33,660 --> 01:12:34,747 were still going to fold. 1653 01:12:34,747 --> 01:12:36,330 If they were going to re-raise all-in, 1654 01:12:36,330 --> 01:12:37,920 then we're still going to call. 1655 01:12:37,920 --> 01:12:40,090 And then-- it's mostly equivalent. 1656 01:12:40,090 --> 01:12:42,700 I'd say in this exact situation, making it-- 1657 01:12:42,700 --> 01:12:45,000 if you raise to $800, it's pretty much the same 1658 01:12:45,000 --> 01:12:46,410 as making it $1,600. 1659 01:12:46,410 --> 01:12:48,960 But on some off chance, it's still 1660 01:12:48,960 --> 01:12:52,740 possible you're giving them a free option. 1661 01:12:52,740 --> 01:12:55,380 Like maybe their better play with 4-3 suited 1662 01:12:55,380 --> 01:12:57,360 is still to just call. 1663 01:12:57,360 --> 01:13:00,170 And then if the flop comes really, really bad for them, 1664 01:13:00,170 --> 01:13:01,879 like Ace-Ace-King. 1665 01:13:01,879 --> 01:13:03,170 Maybe that's not even that bad. 1666 01:13:03,170 --> 01:13:07,830 But 9-8-7 or something, I don't know, they could maybe fold. 1667 01:13:07,830 --> 01:13:11,520 So basically I think just keeping it simple is good. 1668 01:13:14,490 --> 01:13:20,580 So one concept I'll finish on is, there's this idea of-- 1669 01:13:20,580 --> 01:13:23,730 so I have talked about-- all this stuff I'm saying about 1670 01:13:23,730 --> 01:13:25,080 letting them go all-- 1671 01:13:25,080 --> 01:13:27,000 giving them the option is bad. 1672 01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:32,100 But what if you think they're so stupid that if you give them 1673 01:13:32,100 --> 01:13:34,050 the extra option, they're actually 1674 01:13:34,050 --> 01:13:38,190 going to make a mistake, and giving them strictly 1675 01:13:38,190 --> 01:13:41,170 fewer options is actually bad? 1676 01:13:41,170 --> 01:13:43,170 You actually just want to give them more options 1677 01:13:43,170 --> 01:13:44,580 even though it's free options because they 1678 01:13:44,580 --> 01:13:45,454 might make a mistake. 1679 01:13:48,620 --> 01:13:50,760 So this is slicing in from a while ago, 1680 01:13:50,760 --> 01:13:53,380 but Bill Chen sort of gave a very good theoretical example 1681 01:13:53,380 --> 01:13:53,980 of this. 1682 01:13:53,980 --> 01:13:56,632 So Bill Chen, he actually might give a guest lecture. 1683 01:13:56,632 --> 01:13:58,340 The last lecture, we haven't decided yet, 1684 01:13:58,340 --> 01:14:02,190 but he might come and speak for the last lecture of the class 1685 01:14:02,190 --> 01:14:02,910 this year. 1686 01:14:02,910 --> 01:14:05,640 He wrote the book called The Mathematics of Poker. 1687 01:14:05,640 --> 01:14:10,170 He's one of the world experts on the math behind poker. 1688 01:14:10,170 --> 01:14:11,160 He's a math PhD. 1689 01:14:11,160 --> 01:14:14,190 He's currently a trader at Susquehanna International 1690 01:14:14,190 --> 01:14:14,890 Group. 1691 01:14:14,890 --> 01:14:17,760 Anyways, this is what Bill Chen calls a sucker bet. 1692 01:14:17,760 --> 01:14:20,401 And when you see your opponent do this, 1693 01:14:20,401 --> 01:14:21,900 you should almost be a bit offended. 1694 01:14:21,900 --> 01:14:24,930 Like I sometimes-- this occasionally, very rarely 1695 01:14:24,930 --> 01:14:25,590 happens. 1696 01:14:25,590 --> 01:14:28,920 But when it does happen, I'm sometimes very confused 1697 01:14:28,920 --> 01:14:32,040 because my opponents shouldn't be doing this. 1698 01:14:32,040 --> 01:14:35,257 So maybe they're stupid, and they don't go all-in 1699 01:14:35,257 --> 01:14:37,090 because they're stupid, and they're actually 1700 01:14:37,090 --> 01:14:38,520 giving me a free option. 1701 01:14:38,520 --> 01:14:40,980 But maybe I'm actually the stupid one. 1702 01:14:40,980 --> 01:14:44,070 Maybe they think I'm so stupid that if they gave me 1703 01:14:44,070 --> 01:14:47,670 the free option, I'm going to make a mistake. 1704 01:14:47,670 --> 01:14:50,170 So if you do get in a situation like this, 1705 01:14:50,170 --> 01:14:52,170 it's actually sort of an interesting theoretical 1706 01:14:52,170 --> 01:14:53,070 question, I think. 1707 01:14:53,070 --> 01:14:56,476 If you're sitting in exactly Big Blind's shoes, you saw. 1708 01:14:56,476 --> 01:14:58,850 Let's say you know the button is a competent player, too. 1709 01:14:58,850 --> 01:14:59,975 This makes it worse, right? 1710 01:14:59,975 --> 01:15:01,860 If you know the button is a competent player, 1711 01:15:01,860 --> 01:15:05,610 then you're saying, I guess this sort of reveals 1712 01:15:05,610 --> 01:15:08,360 what they think of me, if they're giving me a free option 1713 01:15:08,360 --> 01:15:10,360 to see the flop here here 4-3 suited. 1714 01:15:10,360 --> 01:15:12,068 They must I think I'm going to mess it up 1715 01:15:12,068 --> 01:15:16,342 so bad that they'd rather give me this free option than not. 1716 01:15:16,342 --> 01:15:18,300 But it's an interesting concept to think about. 1717 01:15:18,300 --> 01:15:20,220 And sometimes it does happen. 1718 01:15:20,220 --> 01:15:22,860 Another sort of example of a sucker bet 1719 01:15:22,860 --> 01:15:28,710 is, I guess I was talking about last class on the flop, 1720 01:15:28,710 --> 01:15:30,840 or even on the turn or whatever, you never 1721 01:15:30,840 --> 01:15:34,170 really want to bet a very small fraction of the pot. 1722 01:15:34,170 --> 01:15:37,680 Like, if the pot is $100, and then your opponent checks you, 1723 01:15:37,680 --> 01:15:42,270 and you bet $1 into $100, it doesn't-- it's not a real bet. 1724 01:15:42,270 --> 01:15:43,530 It's $1 into 100. 1725 01:15:43,530 --> 01:15:44,940 It's essentially an epsilon bet. 1726 01:15:44,940 --> 01:15:46,350 It's essentially a zero bet. 1727 01:15:46,350 --> 01:15:47,217 But what does it do? 1728 01:15:47,217 --> 01:15:49,050 It gives your opponent a free option, right? 1729 01:15:49,050 --> 01:15:50,430 Now they can check-raise you. 1730 01:15:50,430 --> 01:15:52,650 If they-- now it's saying, OK, I bet $1. 1731 01:15:52,650 --> 01:15:55,380 Now you have a second chance to bet on the flop, right? 1732 01:15:55,380 --> 01:15:58,440 You check the flop, but I'm going to bet $1 into $100. 1733 01:15:58,440 --> 01:16:01,510 And now if you want to make it $50, 1734 01:16:01,510 --> 01:16:03,840 you can re-raise my $1 bet to $50. 1735 01:16:03,840 --> 01:16:05,049 And now if you want, you can. 1736 01:16:05,049 --> 01:16:07,381 And if you think your opponents going to make a mistake, 1737 01:16:07,381 --> 01:16:08,545 you can try to do this. 1738 01:16:08,545 --> 01:16:11,940 It is a very specific exploitative strategy, 1739 01:16:11,940 --> 01:16:13,980 but it's interesting in that it's 1740 01:16:13,980 --> 01:16:16,860 so obvious as an exploitative strategy. 1741 01:16:16,860 --> 01:16:23,174 Anyway, I think it's an interesting theoretical thing. 1742 01:16:23,174 --> 01:16:24,715 So I think one-- a few more examples. 1743 01:16:24,715 --> 01:16:27,120 So once again, these are all simple hands, 1744 01:16:27,120 --> 01:16:30,640 but I just wanted to show you there's-- 1745 01:16:30,640 --> 01:16:32,520 the only way you can mess up this hand 1746 01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:34,560 is by not going all-in. 1747 01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:37,107 You only have 15 Big Blinds, someone's already raised a lot. 1748 01:16:37,107 --> 01:16:38,940 You don't really want to try to do something 1749 01:16:38,940 --> 01:16:42,060 cute like slow playing, especially-- if you had Aces, 1750 01:16:42,060 --> 01:16:43,290 maybe slow playing is OK. 1751 01:16:43,290 --> 01:16:46,860 But with just Ace-King, any hand is so much equity against you. 1752 01:16:46,860 --> 01:16:50,070 And you just want to go all-in. 1753 01:16:50,070 --> 01:16:54,360 Here's an example where someone in lead position raises, 1754 01:16:54,360 --> 01:16:55,840 and you have a pocket pair. 1755 01:16:55,840 --> 01:16:57,090 You can go all-in. 1756 01:16:57,090 --> 01:16:58,570 And this is pretty good because you 1757 01:16:58,570 --> 01:17:00,810 do pretty well against their range that calls you. 1758 01:17:03,990 --> 01:17:05,850 So this is a pretty good play often. 1759 01:17:05,850 --> 01:17:08,040 I'll talk more about this in future classes. 1760 01:17:08,040 --> 01:17:11,460 But if you're defending your Blinds often with small pairs, 1761 01:17:11,460 --> 01:17:14,220 re-raising all-in, even if it's for a lot of bets, 1762 01:17:14,220 --> 01:17:18,660 is a reasonable play because the hand-- they might even 1763 01:17:18,660 --> 01:17:20,160 fold pocket 3s, pocket 4s. 1764 01:17:20,160 --> 01:17:23,070 I think it's quite likely. 1765 01:17:23,070 --> 01:17:24,630 Yeah, I think the Nash equilibrium 1766 01:17:24,630 --> 01:17:28,410 is to fold pocket 3s, pocket 4s if you have enough chips. 1767 01:17:28,410 --> 01:17:30,720 But when they do call you, even if they 1768 01:17:30,720 --> 01:17:33,680 have a hand like Ace-King, you still have 50% equity, right? 1769 01:17:33,680 --> 01:17:37,260 So small pairs are pretty good at just re-raising all-in 1770 01:17:37,260 --> 01:17:41,190 against late position steals. 1771 01:17:41,190 --> 01:17:44,540 So all-in here is good. 1772 01:17:44,540 --> 01:17:46,020 So the last example is also easy. 1773 01:17:46,020 --> 01:17:49,420 It's essentially saying, so under the gun raises, 1774 01:17:49,420 --> 01:17:50,880 hijack minus one calls. 1775 01:17:50,880 --> 01:17:54,180 You have a great hand on the button, and only 20 Big Blinds. 1776 01:17:54,180 --> 01:17:55,170 You just go all-in. 1777 01:17:55,170 --> 01:17:59,280 There's no reason to be cute and make it $8,000, 1778 01:17:59,280 --> 01:18:01,850 I guess unless you were trying to sucker your opponent. 1779 01:18:04,750 --> 01:18:06,730 I'm going to stop here, and then-- 1780 01:18:06,730 --> 01:18:09,540 so the next class, I'll maybe run 1781 01:18:09,540 --> 01:18:11,430 through a tournament history next class. 1782 01:18:11,430 --> 01:18:14,430 I'll show you guys a history of me playing a tournament, 1783 01:18:14,430 --> 01:18:16,690 and try to discuss some of those decision. 1784 01:18:16,690 --> 01:18:18,934 That will be one of the next three classes. 1785 01:18:18,934 --> 01:18:19,600 All right, cool. 1786 01:18:19,600 --> 01:18:21,450 Thank you.